Pennine Ten Foot Drifts

It's true, I find the GFS ppt forecasts to be remarkably accurate out to about 60 hrs

M62 at Jct. 23, about 1.5 miles from me, looks fun..........

Yes, we usually do well from these types of setups for that very reason

We did well in Hudds., a decent covering. Already starting to melt though, be mostly gone by this afternoon I expect

So, not wanting to be Mr Grumpy, but having been on here model watching for 16 (!) years: FI = anything beyond T180, and what Operational models are showing is the slight favourite amongst a wide range of possible outcomes. no point viewing these for any local detail, or really even with any great confidence. T144 - T180 = most likely broad synoptic pattern i.e. likely to be warmer / colder / wetter / drier than average, but in terms of local detail, barely more reliable than FI. T72 - T144 = broad synoptic pattern likely to be accurate (but not 'nailed on'!). Detail starting to be defined, but for a small area such as the UK, in a predominantly maritime influenced region, confidence in accuracy of detail is still not high. And it mustn't be forgotten that what are actually relatively minor changes to the broader pattern can still have significant changes for UK localities, so even at this range, for 'my location' confidence in just how much warmer / colder / wetter / drier than average is not going to be very high at all. T36 - T72 = confidence in broad synoptic pattern is high, confidence in local forecast is moderate to high dependent on the volatility of the forecast pattern i.e. a forecast large high pressure can give pretty high confidence of at least dry weather locally (although, for example, cloud amounts even at this range cannot be forecast with absolute certainty), whereas what we're looking at now i.e. highly volatile synoptics, means even at this range confidence of local weather conditions is no better than moderate (and in this case probably lower than that). T12 - T36 = broad synoptic pattern highly likely to have been resolved, fairly high confidence in local detail, but again, as for T36 - 72, dependent on the type of synoptics being forecast, changes can happen. T0 - T12 = radar watching! So, for the upcoming 10 days, trying to predict where snow may fall next weekend is at this juncture pretty futile, (and even now, it's quite possible the synoptics will change such that nowhere outside the usual northern upland suspects see any at all). I'd say, assuming the currently modelled synoptics play out broadly as forecast, the soonest we'll be able to confidently start anticipating widespread lowland snow will be Wednesday.

Possibly near here?:

Started snowing here......

Just about stopped now, all very picturesque outside (which is saying something in Hudds!)

Definitely more patches of heavier ppt at 2.00 than 1.45: A trend or a blip?

That's not entirely reflective of the actual situation though, it hasn't stopped at all here in (near enough) central Hudds. since 7.00am, and whilst it's smaller flakes now it's still at least moderate in terms on intensity

Think it's a bit late for my daughter! (see earlier post), I suspect she's stuck there, and I'm wondering how feasible collecting her at 4.00 pm is going to be. My wife just got back (so a 3.5 hour round trip that normally takes about 45 mins), had to ditch the car a mile away and walk as central Hudds. pretty much grid-locked.

Couple of pics from upstairs windows:

Turned to snow here about 7.00am, was heavy until 8.00, now moderate. 1-2cms here in central Huddersfield, but certainly worse as you move out of the urban area - I know because my wife (somewhat foolishly, although it was only sleet when she left) took my daughter to work in Scisset (five miles SE of Hudds), and she's now stuck in traffic on the main Hudds - Wakefield road just outside Lepton, and has barely moved for 30 minutes.

Exactly what I was thinking. This will probably evolve into the most notable cold spell for many years - it's pretty much nailed on as it couldn't have come at a worse time for this country (for most outside this forum anyway)..............

God the 80s were grim!

Exactly Mark, models looking much more favourable for settled and warmer weather, which is great for those of us stuck at home with one eye on our gardens and the other on our deckchairs

mobile phones, computers, myriad electrical white goods, textiles, steel, car parts (and more general manufacturing raw materials), pharmaceuticals, chemicals etc etc. China is in essence the worlds de facto manufacturer supporting the current global economic system. The only way to change that is to radically change the economic system - maybe this will be the shock needed to do that?

Exactly Matty, it has been clear for a good while now that the speed of transmission could not be explained by touch / physical transmission alone, and this is the key piece of information that is not being publicised. If people knew that they could catch it simply by 'breathing someone else's air', and that in a confined space that 'air' could remain contagious for as you say 'upwards of 4 hours' then that would I'm sure I have a dramatic effect on peoples behaviours. Think of all the environments where infection is likely based on that approach and you quickly get an insight into the real reason this disease is so contagious and spreads so easily and quickly.

I think it's pretty certain that this disease is much more widespread across the world than the authorities are yet in a position to recognise. Cases are popping up in many heavily populated (but often poorly reported on) regions, so it seems inconceivable that, given how easily it appears to spread, many many more people are not already infected, and a good few of those already infected people are not moving around more widely thus spreading it further. I will be very surprised if this doesn't become a global pandemic on a very large scale.

ECM across same timeframe, not quite so hysterical............... Still gales, but no hurricane and no blizzards for anyone away from Highlands

Here's an interesting take on how this might be tackled: Empty half the Earth of its humans. It's the only way to save the planet | Kim Stanley Robinson | Cities | The Guardian WWW.THEGUARDIAN.COM There are now twice as many people as 50 years ago. But, as EO Wilson has argued, they can all survive – in cities

Been moderate to heavy sizzle in Buttershaw for the last hour or two, now a genuine covering on all surfaces. Lovely and wintery

Moderate snow in Buttershaw currently

Exactly Karl, certainly there's no point trying to pin any detail to next week, but there is now strong agreement that it will be a cold week, and that it certainly will be cold enough for snow for some, and almost certainly cold enough for significant snow for some. Where and how much is of course not yet clear, but the probability of a significantly colder week is very high - in fact the probability of next week being by some considerable margin the most wintry so far this winter is very high.

Lights flickering at the moment, could do without a power cut today, a bit cold to be without power.........