Pennine Ten Foot Drifts

Wasn't sure where to stick this, so mods feel free to move if there's a better place for it. Not often I get something at work which is actually interesting, but I thought this one was worth a read: http://www.cio.com/article/2878431/supercomputers/noaas-next-supercomputer-will-be-a-cray-ibm-hybrid-system.html#tk.rss_all

Yep, some possibilities in the early part of next week as that's still a fairly volatile situation, but current output has us dry for at least the next seven days, as the high pressure out to our west strengthens and moves nearer. Still in no way 'mild', and hopefully some decent sunny spells as well.

M62 down to one lane over Rockingstones (J22), but I'm still not convinced there's much more easterly movement in this before it's starts to slip south. Might be a real 'close but no cigar' episode !

Yep, I think you're probably right

Slightly off topic, but has RainToday frozen @ 18.45 for anyone else ?

Is this what you're referring to G-W ?

Something to keep an eye on for sure G-W, it certainly looks more defined than a simple trough that's for sure

Schools all closed here in Hudds, although it's not that bad now, as snow has stopped. Probably 4-5 cms depth, but the problem was it fell heavily during rush hour, so all the roads ground to a halt. Sun just starting to come out so I'm sure there'll be lots of parents thinking 'what's the problem.....'

Are you sure, I seem to remember it showing the precip fruther south, (N Midlands), whereas in the end we got the dumping ?

Working in Liverpool tomorrow, looking forward to the drive over

Temp has dropped 3C in last two hours, from 7.5 to 4.5, so heading in the right direction !

Just taking this particular set up and you're looking at western Pennine districts, so try Queensbury, Mountain, Ovenden, A640 Buckstones, A62 Carriage House pub, just to name a few spots that often do well.

Well, you say that, but for both the recent Yorkshire localised snow events GFS modelled the precip better than the short range NAE/NMM models, (and others e.g. BBC, Meto), which all had the precip stalling further south (as our Midlands friends will no doubt testify). So for me the precip showing on the 12z in the 2-3 day timeframe is not to be disregarded so quickly.

Aye, and not sure it's done yet, latest radar appears to be showing things pepping up again

Well, just got back from working in Liverpool, was just starting to snow in earnest when I left at 7.00 am, and apparently has snowed non-stop since until about 5 minutes ago. There's a good 4 inches, maybe more, and all side roads are extremely tricky, and that's near Huddersfield town centre. Further out and higher up it's a lot worse. M62 was fine though, spray and crazy unnecessary braking much more of a danger than anything cold related. It looks like West Yorkshire was pretty much the sweet spot in the end, not the Midlands. Poor them .

Absolutely, I'd like someone who knows how these things develop to say whether the current evolution matches the forecasts up to now. From my untrained eye it looks further north and more intense than the various short term models were showing for this timescale.

Light, occasionally moderate snow showers this morning, not settling to any significant degree though, just a degree or two too warm for that. Next week still looking promising though, especially mid-week (Tuesday/Wednesday).

OK, maybe the extended outlook, and in comparison to what was shown (near enough in FI) a day or two ago. But that still doesn't affect the fact we, in this region, have nearly a week of temperatures and conditions where snowfall is a distinct posibility, and frosts etc are almost a certainty. Perhaps from around T144 onwards things aren't looking so promising just now, but as you rightly say, "these situations so can easily flip in our favour", especially at that range given the current overall rather disturbed state of things. So as I say, I don't think 'horrendous' sums up where we are at all, certainly not in the reliable timeframe anyway.

I'm assuming that's horrendous as in wall to wall SW winds with endless lashing rain and temps above average ? As opposed to horrendous as in three days of nailed on cold to very cold temperatures, wintry showers and the possibility of something unexpected cropping up in the unstable Arctic sourced airmass, followed by (as is currently modelled), 3-4 days of predominantly at least -5 hpa uppers, with the potential for unexpected troughs to pop up at any time ??? (that's for this region of course, rather than the SE, hence the tone/mood of the Model thread currently)

Having our first proper snow shower of the day, coming down moderately just now, hopefully just a precursor to what will follow next week (I doubt we'll see much over the next few days)

Exactly, there is very little consensus even of the exact shape, intensity and direction of the 'trigger' slider low, so any solutions being served up after that timeperiod (i.e. T96 or so onwards) shouldn't be relied on. Better to concentrate on the nearer term, which has plenty to offer, and hold fire on any champagne popping regarding next week (at least in terms of IMBY snowfall).

Yeah I remember that one (and got the pics to prove it !), was the deepest drifted snow I've seen since January 1982 in mid-Wales

Aye, and looking at the ensembles in general, scatter starts to be very noticeable from 19-20/01 onwards. In other words even from the beginnings of the key slider low as it starts its journey from west of Iceland to (eventually) northern France the models are really not hugely consistent as to how things will develop. So given how critical the path of this low is to cold/snow outcomes, and given how much uncertainty there is about that path (as well as orientation and intensity), then it's pretty clear that we're still very much in the realms of 'probability-casting'. I would suggest it'll be a few days yet before we can have a reasonable degree of confidence, and therefore start to make reasonably accurate predictions about likely outcomes, regarding what is in store after next Monday, (other than of course that it almost certainly will get noticeably colder, which is about all we can say with any degree of certainty right now).

Indeed G-W, rainfall looking intense but relatively short-lived certainly for our region, if not quite so further north and south. Quite gusty even here in benign Huddersfield town, I do miss the drama of being on top of the hill, a set up like this usually resulted in a right good blow !

Higher than last winter's storm when gusts were topping 90 mph on Aber(ystwyth) front ?