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Nouska

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Everything posted by Nouska

  1. Nouska
    The cumulative effect of all the storms and frontal rain, July/August to date, is the wettest in many years. That is quite a trend since 2000. Machine translated text with graph. http://www.meteofrance.fr/web/comprendre-la-meteo/actualites?articleId=11173715
  2. Nouska
    Yes, at this rate,there won't be much left for the prune shakers to harvest. http://vigilance.meteofrance.com/
  3. Nouska
    A collage of Halong and buddies on a wide angle view of the Pacific.
  4. Nouska
    If there is a solar signature on W European climate, August would be a good candidate for showing a cooling trend. There are many records from Europe of very early autumn onset and reduced growing season during the Dalton and Maunder: unfortuntely, they do not have the long temperature series provided by the CET record so it is impossible to look at the figures, only written accounts maintained by the like of monastries regarding grain prices and wine production. Summers were unpredictable - some were hot, some were cool - drought interspersed with damaging floods and hail. All hallmarks of an amplified pattern and not so different to what we have been seeing on the mainland of Europe in recent years. The hail and gust front damage to fields, vines and orchards has been extensive this year. I'm from northern farming stock (tatties, neeps, oats and barley) so have no record to compare down here but talking to the old farmers, they say they haven't seen such a volatile period, as in the last few years, in their lifetime.
  5. Nouska
    Meteo France have a graph of historic summer temperatures in their Grande Guerre dossier. 2003 is remarkable in its extreme.
  6. Nouska
    Running this loop of the Atlantic from the GFS clearly shows the source of the vorticity is in the region where Bertha is currently. The NHC also show the forecast track to be similar. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014080306/gfs_z850_vort_atl.html
  7. Nouska
    I'm sure this research was covered in early strat threads on this forum, no harm in revisiting it. http://www.atmosp.physics.utoronto.ca/SPARC/News23/23_Haigh.html Looks like they came to the conclusion that low solar would create weak, sinuous and equatorward movement of the jetstream before they had the reality to observe in the latter part of last decade.
  8. Nouska
    Two runs in a row where ECM wants to have late autumnal lows for high summer. Is this residual tropical energy from ex Bertha interacting with the base of the cold upper pool. This run seems to dissipate Bertha to only an open wave just east of Florida and the GFS barely initiated on the 06Z and 12Z runs.
  9. Nouska
    A little look at the weather in France for the beginning of the Great War. A link to further details at the bottom of the article. http://www.meteofrance.fr/la-meteo-au-temps-de-la-grande-guerre/quel-temps-faisait-il-lors-de/...-la-mobilisation
  10. Nouska
    Have you read any of Gerald Meehl's work? He postulates that the solar cycle produces an ENSO type rhythm of its own and can enhance regular ENSO state - not mentioned, but could it also interrupt?. The only problem, as I see it, things don't seem to be going according to the plan of his models. Allowing for lag periods aside, we are seeing the opposite of what he suggests in this paper. https://www2.ucar.edu/atmosnews/news/810/solar-cycle-linked-global-climate-drives-events-similar-el-ni-o-la-ni
  11. Nouska
    It is remarkable how the very warm pool has just faded away but I guess that's what happens when the ocean and atmophere do not synchronise to maintain the momentum. From what I've seen, all the very warm seasonal long range model suites are predicated on a moderate Nino being in place, will be interesting to see if the next runs change the outlook for Autumn. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/
  12. Nouska
    This research is interesting in that it may tie in with the work from the Italian meteorologists on the Eurasian October index. Once again, it is being attributed to a top-down influence. http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/13/6275/2013/acp-13-6275-2013.pdf
  13. Nouska
    Hope you caught the one just north of me at around 5.30 local - not much electrical activity but visually specatular growth in a matter of minutes.
  14. Nouska
    Huge tally of lightning strikes in the last few hours, mainly from the very active cells in the north. http://www.keraunos.org/temps-reel/impacts-de-foudre/orages-en-direct-france-foudre-eclairs-temps-reel-activite-electrique-suivi.html
  15. Nouska
    Lovely panorama of last nights arcus from Pas de Calais.
  16. Nouska
    A Google translate of our text forecast. Text and Bordeaux sounding, courtesy of Keraunos. http://www.keraunos.org/
  17. Nouska
    If you don't mind, I'll post any severe weather reports and pics the chasers put up - main convective thread is too fast moving on later UK expectations.
  18. Nouska
    Correct. The forecast 'main event' for severe weather is only now coming on coast at the Bassin d'Arcachon.
  19. Nouska
    The highest warning area is just east of you but I'm sure you will see some action. Are you camping? Some violent weather forecast to pass close by. Quick google translation. http://www.keraunos.org/previsions/prevision-orage-tornade-france-convective-outlook.html
  20. Nouska
    First storms cleared through here with a splutter of rain and a fine display of mammatus on the back edge. CAP did not hold as well as predicted, will it affect the main evening event which is due to kick off just north of me?
  21. Nouska
    Hi Yarmy, I was just reading the dossier that MF have compiled from their archives - it is in French but a little work with Google should do the trick, if French not spoken. http://www.meteofrance.fr/la-meteo-au-temps-de-la-grande-guerre Sorry, mods a little off topic - perhaps an historic chart will let it pass.
  22. Nouska
    I wouldn't be expecting a cooldown to be showing in year of the max - albeit, one that is described as a 'mini-max'. All the more notable when comparing to the climatology base period 0f '81-'10; I think some of the satellite series have older base periods.
  23. Nouska
    Dipping a toe (more accurately, a digit) into this fascinating subject. A fairly recent scientific paper on solar influences on Atlantic climate variability comes to the conclusion that the processes likely take place in the stratosphere. The paper is behind a paywall but Science Daily has a report. http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/03/140309150437.htm excerpt..... Given the fact we are now in the declining phase of current cycle, with prognosis for low and extended minimum, there may be much to focus on over the coming winter/s.
  24. Nouska
    I know exactly what you mean - it is why we ventured south for retirement. There has been a slight malfunction of the plan this summer, the sun has not got the message it is required to complete the picture!
  25. Nouska
    Thanks, Knocker. Astonishing detail when compared to the usual satellite images appearing on the boards. I have a feeling there will be many more photo-ops for the ISS this year.
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