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Nouska

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Everything posted by Nouska

  1. Nouska
    There seems to be a lot of confusion among the professionals on just what the terminology indicates. This article from the Danish Met Institute has also classed the warming as a SSW. Google translated version. https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&js=y&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.dmi.dk%2Fnyheder%2Farkiv%2Fnyheder-2015%2F01%2Fforaar-i-stratosfaeren-truer-danmark-med-vinter%2F&edit-text=
  2. Nouska
    Read the more detailed blog entry from Dr Ventrice. http://www.wsi.com/blog/energy/new-gfs-operational-model-in-todays-12z-run-reverses-the-anticipated-pattern-over-the-n-atlantic/ In light of the 12Z ECM, his last paragraph may be more applicable.
  3. Nouska
    18Z synopsis versus the progged ECM and GFS for same time frame. GFS ECM Once again, that looks to be a superb representation from the new GFS.
  4. Nouska
    The ECM page has wind gust impact as the banner offering: looking back through the previous time stamps, today's chart looks to have upped the severity potential for the Midlands.
  5. Nouska
    The fondness for 'binning' model runs is one of my pet hates - only on this occasion can it be literally used - very last 12Z for the dear old GFS. It has done good service, let's hope the new version will be an improvement on the road to greater model reliability and surrounds its birth in the joy of a nationwide cold spell.
  6. Nouska
    Here's the 126 and 132 hours charts.
  7. Nouska
    18Z synopsis - low a little bit deeper than the GFS shows for that time frame.
  8. Nouska
    The IMO have a variety of 'up close' satellite presentations. http://brunnur.vedur.is/myndir/seviri/2015/01/08/
  9. Nouska
    The other model ensembles have shown a tendency to produce an increasing number of amplified members in the last couple of runs - the NCEP might be too bullish - perhaps a half way house is the way ahead.
  10. Nouska
    Looks like the real deal 510 thickness to me.
  11. Nouska
    ECM 10 metre wind speeds for both Friday and Saturday. Fast and furious would be an accurate description! Charts courtesy of Icelandic Met Office.
  12. Nouska
    Meteociel now offer a global map to create ensemble graphs for anywhere. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs.php?carte=2 Within this, there are pressure, temperature, wind direction, ThetaE and precipitation options at the bottom of the graph. Azores Faroes The ECM ensembles for Madrid and Rome are not showing any signs of low pressure influence as yet. http://www.meteo24.fr/fr/home/meteo-france-et-europe/passion-meteo/ensemble-de-previsions.html?eps=rome http://www.meteo24.fr/fr/home/meteo-france-et-europe/passion-meteo/ensemble-de-previsions.html?eps=madrid
  13. Nouska
    One cannot get away from the fact that some very mild nights are forecast thus skewing the accumulated five day anomalies - what is surprising is that the month to date plus all these (next seven day) milder interludes should still amount to below average in my native turf and just on average in the south. Source is a useful page for looking at reanalysis and forecast of temperature data. http://www.karstenhaustein.com/climate.php#forecast
  14. Nouska
    The ECM initiated HiRLAM has some snow for the area you refer to - the band crosses betwen 00Z and 06Z. Source courtesy of Weeronline. http://www.weeronline.nl/vakman-index/130/0
  15. Nouska
    The internet is a wonderful showcase for those whose exceptional gifts and talent are not well reflected in educational attainments on a CV.
  16. Nouska
    In addition to the BCC model posted earlier, the CFS also sniffing (or is it whiffing ) a height rise to our NW to see out the month. Whatever tranpires in actuality, at this moment in time, there is the signal for a colder end to the month
  17. Nouska
    Hi, yes it is - the monthly ensemble that is run regularly.
  18. Nouska
    I don't know if any of you rate the monthly ensembles from the BCC - this caught my eye from the update today. Last trimester of December - might relate with Ian's comments.
  19. Nouska
    I think we need to look at the post, from Interitus, in conjunction with the polar strat diagnostic archive. The first three examples had an early winter Canadian warming so it is probable that would have the initial effect of disturbing/displacing the vortex to favourable positioning for our neck of the woods.
  20. Nouska
    A timely freebie from the ECM website - 700hPa wind and RH for out to T120. http://old.ecmwf.int/samples/d/inspect/teasers/samplers/banner/rh_and_wind!700%20hPa!120!Europe!pop!od!oper!w_uv_rh!2014120700!!/
  21. Nouska
    A wee, sneaky peek at the Reading EPSgram shows this up well - big spread after Saturday, the control and deterministic are at the top of the range at the end of forecast period. http://i.imgur.com/55jJzgi.gif
  22. Nouska
    Good Morning Dave. Meteociel have the NOAA NWW3 wave and sea state model to have a look at forecast heights, swell and period. Detail will change at that timescale but may be of use. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/nww3_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=0&carte=2&archive=0
  23. Nouska
    I knew you would have the answer at your finger tips - thanks a lot.
  24. Nouska
    Indeed. Although 850s are nothing special the wind chill will make on the ground temps feel very raw. After the weekend there are very few periods where 'feels like' temps are above freezing. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/royaume-uni/windchill/3h.htm
  25. Nouska
    Interesting four panel from ECM at T162 - heavy precip, T850s sub -5c and the 528 line well south. Courtesy IMO. http://brunnur.vedur.is/kort/ecm0125/2014/12/05/12/ecm0125_nat_4panel1_2014120512_162.png
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