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Nouska

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Everything posted by Nouska

  1. Nouska
    I'm not sure if this is the correct area for this post as the subject is not strictly a teleconnection. The Atlantic multidecadal overturning circulation (AMOC) has been in the news recently regarding possible regional climate change with several new papers suggesting a decline over the next few decades. The website of the AMOC monitoring array has some very interesting articles and also the data collection updates. This article in the publications section caught my attention and may be of value in long range forecasting. Some of the coldest winters coincide with a drop in overturning speed - big question I have - is it cause or effect? http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-014-2274-6/fulltext.html Full menu here http://www.rapid.ac.uk/rapidmoc/
  2. Nouska
    Good agreement between control and deterministic on the Reading EPSgram - only a couple of days where mid teens are shown. .
  3. Nouska
    A view down the eyewall of Maysak - taken from the ISS. More stunning images here. https://twitter.com/AstroSamantha/media
  4. Nouska
    According to the Wunderground blog that info is correct. Equal at the moment but has a good chance of beating the record. Beautiful presentation currently and looks like plenty convection in the area for future tropical development. This will be providing a good WWB for a stronger Nino.
  5. Nouska

    New Research

    Nouska replied to jethro's topic in Climate Change

    This is a look at the results from the 26 degrees north array which was installed in 2004. http://www.ocean-sci.net/10/29/2014/os-10-29-2014.pdf Observations of the decline do not tally with what the models predicted but very short timescale under consideration. Seems to be a rash of new research on this subject with cryptic statements from the European research organisations about what the models show. Some other links. http://www.reportingclimatescience.com/news-stories/article/north-atlantic-set-to-cool-slightly-says-research.html http://www.exeter.ac.uk/news/featurednews/title_425319_en.html https://www.reading.ac.uk/news-and-events/releases/PR559097.aspx
  6. Nouska
    Kp for 2000 in Bartels format. http://wdc.kugi.kyoto-u.ac.jp/kp/index.html#FIG
  7. Nouska
    Some of the very recent research has found a link between energetic particles produced at times of high solar activity and an increase in the polar vortex strength. This fires up the jet stream and can increase tropospheric low pressure in N Atlantic region. Results show that response can be quite swift. Perhaps, observations are now being reinforced by scientific study but, as yet, a lot of theory rather than fact.
  8. Nouska
    Some stratosphere related presentations from the current Sun-Climate conference. http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/14/30879/2014/acpd-14-30879-2014.pdf http://www.issibern.ch/teams/interplanetarydisturb/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/Mursula_03_2014.pdf http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2014/141014/ncomms6197/full/ncomms6197.html Full list , with abstracts. http://scc.geomar.de/frontend/index.php?page_id=506&v=List&do=0&day=119
  9. Nouska
    Excerpt from the BOM update. http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Overview A very detailed look at current conditions for IOD and ENSO - somebody on SK2 has copy pasted from Wunderground but not provided link. BFTV, you seem very knowledgeable - thoughts? http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?p=2443050#p2443050
  10. Nouska
    Conference on sun-climate connections - list of presentations with abstracts. http://scc.geomar.de/frontend/index.php?page_id=506&v=List
  11. Nouska
    A look at the most recent research on solar effects on climate and moving beyond the traditional concept of TSI. Some of this research will be of interest for the stratosphere thread. http://www.progearthplanetsci.com/content/1/1/24
  12. Nouska
    I'm not entirely sure what is meant by the "naturals" so will have to make assumptions here. PDO = very positive AMO = weakly positive ENSO = weakly positive (predominately Modoki type therefore circulation patterns not corresponding to true NINO state. Solar maximum early in the year. Global response = warmest on record. IMO, 'naturals' are in a constant state of flux - some permutations enhance, others offset any warming signal - therefore, I don't agree with the premise of a switch being flicked from off to on as far as indices are concerned but in the case of 2014 there were more on than off. Probably a similar scenario this year but, in reality, we don't know the longevity of any of them.
  13. Nouska
    The JMA data should be useful for the discussions further back as it is based on most recent thirty year base. It does highlight why some have the impression of the 1950 - 1980 period being a cool one in relation to current trend.
  14. Nouska
    A last minute wobble? may spare them from the direct intensity of the eye but impacts will still be devastating.
  15. Nouska
    As IDO says - a complicated picture - further complicated by people using different models to show the MJO forecast. I use the multi-model for a quick glance and the full suite with the ensembles for more detail. multi link - http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ALL_emean_phase_full.gif full suite - http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml The oscillations have all been highly amplified and the atmosphere seems to be in some sort of transition to something more amplified than what we have seen. I would imagine modelling will remain erratic until a clearer picture emerges.
  16. Nouska
    ....and a perfect text book example of the MJO composites in operation. Not much sign of lag in this forecast. The EC32 doesn't show the amplification lasting for long.
  17. Nouska
    Michael Ventrice has posted a blog about the SOI forecast. http://www.wsi.com/blog/energy/the-southern-oscillation-index-could-drop-into-the-3-to-4-sigma-territory-during-the-11-15-day-period/ This might be a more interesting period to watch for a stronger El Nino. I commented in the model thread that March '97 was the closest analogue to the very amplified forecast for the MJO - add that to the forecast SOI and the very positive PDO - maybe a goer this year. CFS tropical mode projections in the link below. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/macritch/showhoriz.php
  18. Nouska
    Yes, ECM does not show the promise of a few days ago - even Sunday not looking dry in the south.
  19. Nouska
    I had a look through the archive for a similarly amplified March - as ever, no exact replica - March '97 was the closest. From JMA archive. http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/mjo/monitor.html CET was 8.4C for that month with a mega Nino beginning and very mild February preceding it. Doubt we will see as high this month but if forecasts verify with the southerly draw - might be pushing close.
  20. Nouska
    A Scandinavian high would be a very plausible outcome when looking at the ECM and GFS forecast for the MJO. It is the height of irony that people wait all winter for amplification in the right phase - then along it comes at the wrong time.
  21. Nouska
    I'm not sure what the Met Office class as the possibly very cold night time temperatures stated in their outlook but the likelihood of anything I would class as very low is fading on the ECM ensembles. CF. the last two outputs for De Bilt. Of course, there may be other runs from Mogreps or GloSea5 which contraindicate the latest NWP we are seeing. 00Z 12Z Reading - for ten days only.
  22. Nouska
    Lively looking 925mb wind profile!
  23. Nouska
    It is a more complex beastie than the models show. WV animation on Seviri. (load and use mouse roller) http://brunnur.vedur.is/myndir/seviri/2015/02/23/seviri_nat_wv_high.html ICON hi-res, with the icosahedral zoom, has modelled it well.
  24. Nouska
    You can use the large option to get a more detailed version, specifically for the UK. http://meteocentre.com/analyse/map.php?map=UK&date=2015022313&size=large〈=en&area=eur
  25. Nouska
    Thanks Jo, nice explanation of a complicated matrix. I'm more familiar with the straight forward 'traffic lights' coding on the continent and it works well with people knowing the likely impact level. I can see complications in adding the impacts factor, especially where warning is enhanced through density of population or time of day. If people don't realise this and weather is not so severe it can downplay the response for future events.
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