Nouska

Convection getting organised in Spain now. Source http://www.nwcsaf.org/HD/MainNS.jsp

In the absence of Estofex, I've put the French discussion through the Google translator. Instability comes through as 'jitter' - very apt for some of the anticipation seen on here. https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=fr&tl=en&js=y&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.keraunos.org%2Fprevisions%2Fprevision-orage-tornade-france-convective-outlook.html&edit-text=

Just coming into range of the London WAFC forecast on IMO. Cb charts.

Have a play with the JMA ENSO Atmosphere Circulation Regression and Correlation map - using the drop down parameters, it will give some ideas on the different patterns that can be expected in different phases. http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/newoceanindex/index.html Read the explanation page (link above the map) if you are unsure of all the terms. Hope that helps. PS, still looking to cool 1+2 later but currently not enough for true Modoki.

I think that on most occasions "that doesn't look right" actually means "that doesn't look like what I want to see!" Onwards to something a little different, spurred by an exchange on my old home and in reference to a monthly forecast. Singularities and what they can mean in terms of perhaps second guessing conflicting NWP. I looked at the UK Sci weather resources and this table of HH Lambs version. Surprising how we are following pretty much as per his thesis. I've screen capped June but the whole page is an interesting read. This is where the hunch may play a part in good forecasting. http://weatherfaqs.org.uk/node/179

Going by the ENSO article you linked this morning it is not surprising that the NWP is struggling. If the ocean and atmosphere are still disconnected, with a strengthening Nino in place, the modelling is likely to become more erratic. What was the punchline - "In fact, the current temperature patterns are more like those normally seen in classic El Niño Decembers." The NOAA blog talks about this divergence in the longer range forecasting tools. http://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/el-ni%C3%B1o-likely-what-climate-impacts-are-favored-summer Modelling is now converging on an amplified MJO sweep across the Indian Ocean - as said last week - not a good phase for us. I hesitate to bring solar activity into the mix but it is notably low; are we going to see another very blocked summer with a tendency for troughing to put the Jet on a southerly trajectory?

We have a large number of hedgehogs due to ideal countryside and my offerings of food for the feral cats from adjacent farm. It is certainly a badger that has been the cause of any fatalities - examination of the remains shows evisceration. I was wondering about the parkland in the article that Knocker linked to - would there be badgers there which would be under protection? (I don't subscribe to read the link). Here, I'm more likely to see a badger lying dead at the side of the road than a hedgehog squished on the road but I'm sure the motor car is the largest killer in urban areas.

I'm not so sure about the models.......we are currently going into a very low solar state which may mean that the tendency is for static blocking in the long wave pattern; a lot depends on whether we grind to a halt on the upside or downside of the wave. My thinking is that the long rangers are being influenced by the big warm anomalies in the Pacific while the Atlantic has a very cool pool, equals cooler UK if westerlies predominate. I'm also mindful of the last time we had such anomalous warmth in that region of the EPAC - 2003. If we get a pattern from the continent, as then, the effects of any cold pool will be negated. Equally, 2007 could be on the cards as the solar signal is very similar to now. El Nino is a wild card for our region but the JMA ENSO composites favour later summer warmth,even hot!

Regarding the ECM - I've been following the EPSgrams for Reading and they have been consistently at the top of the envelope. We should have been able to be more confident as the control and deterministic were on the same page mostly but with that level of spread, there was always room for big changes.

A lovely view of Andres, the first storm of 2015. ....and a VIP forecaster on duty for latest update from the NHC. 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 281453 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 900 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015 Deep convection associated with the tropical cyclone has continued to expand this morning with a large area of cloud top temperatures colder than -70 degrees Celsius. The convection has also become better organized with an increase in banding and a developing central dense overcast. Dvorak data T-numbers from both SAB and TAFB were T2.5, which support upgrading the depression to a 35-kt tropical storm. The initial motion estimate is 295/12. Andres is located to the south and southwest of a mid-level ridge that extends from south-central Mexico west-southwestward over the eastern Pacific. This ridge is expected to be the main steering influence during the next several days, and should cause Andres to move west-northwestward to northwestward. After 48 hours, track guidance spread increases, with the GFDL, HWRF, and ECMWF models taking Andres on a more northerly track, while the GFS and GFS ensemble maintain a northwesterly motion. The NHC track forecast remains near the multi-model consensus for now. Warm water and low shear during the next 2-3 days should allow for steady strengthening. In fact, the SHIPS RI index indicates a 60% chance of at least a 30-kt increase during the next 24 hours. The updated NHC forecast calls for a faster rate of intensification over the next 36 h than the previous one. In 2 to 3 days, the cyclone will be approaching slightly cooler waters which should induce weakening by the end of the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 11.6N 111.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 12.3N 112.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 13.0N 113.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 13.8N 114.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 14.8N 114.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 31/1200Z 16.7N 115.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 01/1200Z 18.0N 117.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 02/1200Z 19.0N 118.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown and Barack Obama (PRESIDENT)

Hi Knocker, I was ruminating on Nick's post and the potentially different outcomes - that the main models may diverge in the longer term. It is a possibility and not a fact.. With four weeks of underpinning our foundations about to start, I'm desperately hoping for the high and dry solution - being surrounded by a moat was not on the shopping list for our French adventure!

Don't be surprised to see longer range differences between the GFS and ECM. They are both bringing the MJO back into a more amplified state but have different regions and those make a big difference to our neck of the woods. ECM wants to amplify through the Indian Ocean and that is not good for our prospects. GFS keeps the amplification further west; this correlates to a lovely high pressure scenario as depicted in current low res runs. Overview. ECMmonthly The difference between phase 1 and phase 2 for June.

Definitely not an Arcus - here's a classic example from the same date but in the north France. I would agree with Asperatus but having said that, what would the sky have looked like if you were directly under either of these systems....

As BFTV says, too soon for reanalysis of the month but a quick glance can be had from the below charts. Temp anomalies in Kelvin and are for surface rather than the 925hPa in the monthly analysis. http://www.karstenhaustein.com/climate.php#forecast Month to date month to date plus forecast seven days.

A round up of the ensemble means of the main ENSO models. Courtesy of Phil Klotzbach's twitter. https://twitter.com/philklotzbach He's also shown the latest ECM plume with other Ninos to highlight how extreme the forecast is. Latest CFS is backing off the heat in region 1+2 for October and keeping the large anomaly out in area 3+4 Could we be looking at a very warm Modoki type event - if so, the hysterics of the press may yet be on the right trail of a cold European winter - just not the correct reasoning. https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/83135-strong-el-nino-now-forecast-how-will-it-impact-the-weather/?p=3202467

Yes, footage from evening of the thirteenth. Additional report and pictures friom the chasers, which I've put through the Google mangle. https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=fr&tl=en&js=y&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.keraunos.org%2Factualites%2Fchasseurs-orages%2Fchasses-aux-orages-de-la-saison-2015%2Fsupercellules-orage-alsace-bade-wurtemberg-chasse-orages-guillaume-scheib.html&edit-text=&act=url I particularly like this pic - very Great Plains(esque)

Video of the tornado in Gerbépal.

The part of your post I've highlighted is well illustrated by the JMA ENSO circulation charts. First image is for El Nino positive 1+2 and second is Nino Modoki with heat in area 4. Parameter is 850 temperature, other options available in link at the bottom. http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/newoceanindex/index.html

Hi, I've been following the hot weather discussion for Spain on this forum thread. My Spanish is a bit basic but Google fills in the gaps. http://www.cazatormentas.net/foro/seguimiento-de-situaciones-meteorolgicas/seguimiento-especial-mayo-2015-episodio-de-intenso-calor/

Hi, here's a source for following the French storms and there should be pics from the chasers as the evening unfolds. Plenty of supercell activity already. http://www.keraunos.org/actualites/fil-infos/2015/mai/orages-13-mai-2015-supercellules-grele-vent-rafales-lorraine-bourgogne-alsace-franche-comte.html

JMA model also going off scale in Nino prediction: this is unusual for this agency, normally quite conservative in ensemble prediction. Updated outlook. http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/tcc/tcc/products/elnino/gif/c_ens_gr_oni.gif

Yes, the parity in surface temps between the control and the deterministic is suddenly out of kilter for that time period on the the 00Z EPSgram for Reading.

The remainder of April sees most of the highest daily figures being achieved in 2014 - all of the daily records for May are set in 2014. My ancient system cannot open the link up page so I'll show both months as a screen shot for quick reference. April May http://www.cawcr.gov.au/staff/preid/seaice/sea_ice_table_extent.html

3D imaging of the storm from yesterday, Tropical Cyclone 05W was born in the Northwestern Pacific Ocean on April 3 west of the island of Pohnpei when the GPM satellite passed over it and analyzed its rainfall rates. That GPM data was made into a 3-D image that showed some high thunderstorms northwest of its center. Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2015-04-nasa-tropical-cyclone-birth-d.html#jCp

I don't know if you have looked at the link in Tas' signature, maybe he was providing that as evidence? The daily record for April 2nd appears to have been set in 2008 - 6.796. Irrespective of daily detail, can we beat the highest ever recorded (20th September 2014) - the figures for both years are a close match at the moment.