Nouska

If Recretos is about - any information on the Chinese model? The T240 charts for 10hPa temperatures are very detailed by comparison the the GFS at that timescale. CMA GFS

Some recent research has postulated a connection but it is not instant and not from very isolated bursts of energy particles. http://journal.frontiersin.org/Journal/10.3389/fphy.2014.00025/full?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=Physics-w18-2014

Now, winter 90/91 is a good example of how a SSW can completely change our fortunes and fly in the face of the OPI index value! A very cold vortex is no match for a strong warming in the right place. Watch the animation of the stratosphere in conjunction with the archived 500mb polar pattern on the Meteociel. http://curriculum.pmartineau.webfactional.com/wp-content/svw_gallery/test/gif/1991_01_28.gif http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=20&month=1&hour=0&year=1991&map=4&mode=2

Aaaah .....fond memories and Groundhog Day.

From your IR representation, slight weakening while eyewall replacement cycle underway - still a lot of warm water for strengthning before land fall. Once again, Tacloban is the target zone with so many still in temporary accommodation.

I don't want to take the thread of topic but it is worth comparing the December forecast from the CFS V2. The first chart was run around tenth November, the second is their up to date forecast for this month. From being very few negative NH land anomalies, there are now large areas with some deeply negative anomalies. No Z500 height charts provided, sorry. Just posted to highlight that maybe some of these colder indicators are now feeding through and also to say it shows a three month ahead forecast means nothing other than what the starting conditions infer.

Some snippets and images from the tropical boards. The ECM was out on its own last night - unfortunately, the recurve of the others in suite looks less likely. The horror just goes on for the poor people in the area - the track of Hagiput looks to be very close to the last two monsters. Latest image. A chilling quote from a Texas pro-met. http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?p=2429107#p2429107 ....and how tropical phases may have helped to create another super typhoon. http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?p=2429074#p2429074

Would agree with this. I've spent a lot of time looking through archives of various teleconnectors and it is almost impossible to see any pattern that stands out as being even remotely conclusive. The MJO high amplitudes under discussion, by themselves, have no recurring theme as far as I can see. some random examples of these phases in high amplitude for December/January.....first against then for..... The two seventies cold winters more probably a result of the Canadian warming rather than MJO infuences. Archives used. http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/northpole/index.html http://cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom/RMM/phasediag.list.htm

I think it is also important to point out that a highly amplified phase six, seven and eight did nothing for our prospects in January and February of 2011. As you will know too well, it is a tool, a guide and not an exact science - definitely not something to be making 'winter is over' pronouncements on! Winter 2010/2011 MJO phases.

With that big low on the ECM, a good time to have a look at the run in six hourly increments. Courtesy of the IMO, ECM four panel - patience for loading - it is slow for me. Time scale on extreme right or mouse wheel for animation. http://brunnur.vedur.is/kort/ecm0125/2014/12/02/12/ecm0125_nat_4panel1.html

Way back in the early noughties, the May SSTs were used as an NAO indicator in the Met Office's winter forecasts. It wasn't mentioned after they dropped the public seasonal forecasts but seems to have made a reappearance in a paper about the GloSea5 prediction skills. I would offer a tentative suggestion that the long range models are being skewed by very warm oceans, all over the Globe. It is interesting that the NOAA LR forecast, predicated only on SST anomalies, is showing something very different as a forecast for this winter.

Have a look atthe Weerplaza ensembles for SW Holland. http://www.weerplaza.nl/15daagseverwachting/?type=eps_pluim&element=&r=zuidwest Snow for the last two days and a northerly the two days prior to that - it is not warm!

Just reading a blog on WSI where they are looking at the 00Z clusters for ECM and GFS. Looking at the 12Z ECM and the further encroach of the low hights into Europe: would the the colder cluster have higher support on this run, I wonder? http://www.wsi.com/blog/energy/europe-cold-this-week-less-coldwindierwetter-next-week/ The 27% T2 temp anomalies.

I think your charts are from a pay website so cannot be linked as the animation - FIM is free to view and here's the same parameter in animation format. http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/jsloopLocalDiskDateDomainZip.cgi?dsKeys=fim_jet:&runTime=2014113000&plotName=ptemp_pv2&fcstInc=360&numFcsts=57&model=fim&ptitle=Experimental%20FIM%20Model%20Fields&maxFcstLen=336&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=201 Full menu. http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=fim_jet&domain=201&run_time=30+Nov+2014+-+00Z

I found this interesting article in the Club Soleil listing of new, solar research papers. Modulation of UK lightning by heliospheric magnetic field polarity http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/9/11/115009/article

With a provenance from TWO's climate forum and that avatar......this old gal cannot resist.

You know what - in the not too distant future, I'm quite sure old Sol will be aiding and abetting you in that endeavour.

The very first time I entered a CET competition was December 2010 - inspired by the charts, I opted for 0.3c and raised many an eyebrow and guffaw. I was too high!! No such inspiration this time but it is my first venture in here. 3.9c please.

The IMO (Icelandic Met Office) have added the PGFS to their extensive list of models. One of the parameters is a nice animation of the geopotential heights and temperature at 30hPa. These are date cached so will need to have the date changed in the address bar. http://brunnur.vedur.is/kort/gsm025/2014/11/29/00/gsm025_nhem_gh30_t30.html Screen cap for illustration.

Is this the local version of the tropopause chart you linked above? This from the ECM rather than GFS. For Nick, Reading ensemble. http://i.imgur.com/VNItd6Z.gif http://brunnur.vedur.is/kort/ecm0125/2014/11/28/12/ecm0125_nat_pt4pvs2_2014112812_240.png

On the high res PGFS, which goes out to +240 hours, Sylvain has added a specific snowfall depth chart. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs-para/royaume-uni/hauteur-neige/3h.htm Not much to follow as yet but a sprinkling, in the far north, forecast next week.

Maybe I'm too influenced by my interest in tropical weather but it seems to me that models are just moving in the direction of the MJO phases. We are currently in phase three and that seems to fit what is shown. The GFS, ECM and UKMO then go on to high amplification phase four - a huge area of high pressure to the south and west of the UK is what is on composite for that. GFS ensembles are less bullish about this and return to cross 'no man's land' at the end of the forecast period. I'm still not convinced that is where it is going in the next week - stiil too much uncertainty and just as likely to be under troughing with a northerly influence. Big scatter in SW of Holland for wind direction.

WSI have a blog more pertinent to our interests. http://www.wsi.com/blog/energy/europe-pattern-change-ahead-less-ridging-over-north-east-europe/ ECM week three and four T2M ensemble mean not an inspiring sight, though. Regarding the one for the US mid term - it is weighted on MJO travel - the fast passage from the Indian Ocean may not take place as modelled. As is so often the case, it stops, fiddles around a bit, before moving in a more purposeful direction. Edit to add: The PGFS is still persisting with the signal for cold incursion round about the 8th - expect it will come and go as time counts down but my interest is in how far out it can get the pattern right.

The temperature forecast on the Cohen map is very similar to the one from the NOAA sea surface temperature analogues. I'll post both the height anomaly and the temperature anomaly as it gives a better idea of how circulation patterns contribute to the temperature shown. These would also tie in with the OPI forecast in that they show a very southerly jet stream making inroads well into Europe and setting up a return easterly flow. Western France would be mostly milder in that set up with the maritime influence as the flow comes ashore. The fact N. Scotland is positive on the Cohen forecast may indicate periods of split jet stream where they also come under usual westerly flow. Charts courtesy of Huug Van Den Dool. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd51hd/

Yes, this is what I was looking at last night. A strong signal for the vortex segment to bleed off of NE Canada around the 6th. How this is resolved will be interesting - will it be straight across, above us, then drop south or dive SE as the runs of yesterday showed. The heights to the south are lowering in the ensembles and an Arctic dipole anomaly to the north are both good signals to have if you're looking for cold in the UK