Banbury
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Posts posted by Banbury
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1 minute ago, fromey said:
But he did say at the end “ turning mild by the end of the week” surely if Tuesday isn’t settled the end of the week is up for grabs
Yep he said that as well and that was dependant on where the LP sat
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Far different from the 12z, you have to wonder ……………...in saying that N Miller @21:55 didn't have a clue about Tuesday
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22 minutes ago, nicktabs said:
GSFP currently has my area down for ~12 hours of heavy snowfall Tues so it's only downhill from here. I'll be happy with a few flakes...
Old run...………....wait for the next
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14 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:
TBH im no fan of seasonal models, i was taken in by the consistency of EC 46 but lets call a spade a spade, at this juncture its looking more and more like a bust..
I suspect Exeter will be making changes tomorrow, i was pleasently suprised by todays but come tomorrow...
We could of course see a flip tomorrow but i wont be holding my breath..
Hopefully a few snow events for some next week.
Exeter have just put an upgrade out today , I can't see them changing it just because of one ECM run...…………..remember just how much data they see
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14 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:
GFS disappointing for snow next week. First low (Tues night) is too far south so it stays mainly dry. Second low is too far north so rain for north and snow high ground in Scotland only. Still plenty of time for change. UKMO looks like it may scrape the far south on Tues night
Early hours of Tuesday has snow across parts of England and Wales - what's made you come to your conclusion?
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4 minutes ago, P-M said:
Maybe not in your locale however someone did post from a northern London suburb and it showed a decent covering - point being snow fell in the London area / south east in modest amounts or in any case it wasn't limited to northern hills as keeps being spouted around.
Oxfordshire did well also - I'm amazed at some people on here ( not you ) Daventry is 20 miles from here , last year they got 4" of snow one evening Banbury missed the lot, snowfall can be so local
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Last nights 850's were plenty good enough for a good covering in these parts and today's temps were good enough to keep the snow on the ground , the output will give us more opportunities for snow to fall and stay
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Just now, kold weather said:
The thing I'd say to that is the op ECM backs it (and has done now for 4 runs), as did nearly 50% of its ensembles...as does the UKMO 12z to an extent. Itsd certainly looking increasingly probable that this is the evolution it takes.
Indeed if that is the way it goes I would not rule out an easterly still at some point...but based on the lack of cold air around, probably one of those useless types!
Don't give a damn about an Easterly its the comments on 222h that are laughable , the 12z isn't just the OP, its the whole GEFS including the Para and seeing where it sits
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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:
Dyer output - absolutely effing gutted.
And your thoughts if its at the top end of the ENS?
Knee jerk reaction or what - I do wonder
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2 minutes ago, kold weather said:
Its not the worst for sure, but it probably makes it very unlikely the south is going to have enough cold advected down to make a go of it, especially as the synoptics don't look that bad to me still.
May still be a good run for Scotland/N.England as they are just that bit closer so have more leeway. For the south, probably game over on that run, at least for this attempt...there may be others.
Define " South"
Southern England - Southern Britain
Just for clarity
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Put this in the bin ( but leave the lid off) until you see the Para and the ENS , its so different
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3 minutes ago, MP-R said:
-6C in the north and about -5C across most of the south, hence the marginality.
So good enough for snow -5 is always nearly the level
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2 minutes ago, kold weather said:
Only for high ground, looks like a classic hill snow chart to me, may be wintry showers might be another way to describe that.
ECM once again proving why it is the king of the models, all the models falling in line with it...as I kind of feared...though as I've previously doesn't mean we won't get a cold spell, just a greater chance of a bust, that's all.
What were yesterday evenings 850's
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1 minute ago, Harsh Climate said:
Im not keen on the ukmo 12z, looks like a west based NAO setting up to me
Not with that other LP coming from the NW - hypothetical , changed by the morning
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4 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:
Because generally, if Central and Southern England wants a more sustained deeper cold spell, then winds from the East or North East would normally be more favourable.
You could aim that at most of the UK but once the jet goes South and we are on the cold side NWlies will do , followed by slack winds and overnight low temps and repeat and repeat
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35 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:
It might be positive, but the Met Office are saying no North Easterly or Easterly right out to the middle of February, for Central and Southern England this is not good news, seems quite wet and cold.
Further North will fair better, but no deep and long lasting cold with snow more prevalent over hills.
Not sure why the NEly or Ely make a difference many areas in Oxfordshire had a good covering of snow yesterday evening - I wish people would stop the fascination with winds from the East.
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2 minutes ago, danm said:
A 3-4cm covering of snow here in suburban north London, in a PM NW’erly is pretty damn good. Shows how little snow events can pop up at short notice. Much more than was forecast.
Models definitely showing a little more interest today. It looks like we have the potential for shorter term upgrades in the output over the next few days.
Which really shows the potential in the coming days
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Oxford had a covering of snow this afternoon , if the charts verify as per tonights 12z many will see snow
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4 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:
BBC forecast looked quite juicy for next week on BBC news channel just now to be honest.
Looked ok , best 21:55 of the Winter
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35 minutes ago, O'Maille80 said:
These threads have been dead since they split them. Hard to follow anything.
I agree , poor move IMO
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Just now, jules216 said:
Just look at southern Greenland and Iceland area, this is where various atmospheric forces meet/happen and no long range model,even medium range has got this figured out. That is why I keep quoting Ed Berry(GSDM) that NAO is virtually impossible to forecast beyond 2 days , it is a pity that no teleconnective experts come here and try to explain or re-analyze the quasi permanent NAO fails of recent winters. I personally have no answer
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2 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:
Well, not really. The Azores high has not been able to ridge properly into Greenland/Scandinavia due to the permanent tropospheric polar vortex over NE Canada.
The models in the T+240 range have shown decent attempts, however, as we approach T+0, the models pick up the the short wave action around Southern Greenland which topples the pattern and puts us back to square one.
Disagree
In terms of it fighting to keep cold away its done its job so very well
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One of the worst OP runs for sometime IMO from so early on as well
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Just need to remember this is just the OP and be anywhere in amongst GEFS
Cold hunt - models and chat
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
I was talking about the GFSP which hasn't started yet , which as we know can give a completely different scenario