[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

I'm not sure how ANYONE can claim victory with anything, just look how different ECM is from yesterdays ………….consistent no its  not , not saying its wrong but its moving its own goal posts run to run 

[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

ECM 168 is so different to yesterday's 12z well in FI at this stage 

[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

I'm expecting a NW / SE slider followed by an Easterly between 168 -216

[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:

If it does go wrong this should be bookmarked to teach people a lesson for the future. Nothing is ever nailed on until T48.

I don't think anyone has every said the cold is nailed on 

[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

2 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Why do certain posters only turn up when things start to look iffy? Have to refrain from biting!

 

Hmmmm next frame is key, how can the UKMO and ECM be so different at day 5?

And GFS but that recovered so time yet 

[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

ECM not the way we want it I'm afraid @120 - 

[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

192 onwards ( GEFS) a fair few have the PV really beaten up , which can lead to absolutely anything 

[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

Its a funny old game this weather thing , if ECM is down a couple of notches and on the colder side of the mean we will be  happy as Larry but in reality nothing will have changed . 

[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

15 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I've looked through the ensemble members from 192 hrs onwards. Vert few are as good as the op and there is some serious dirge in there, including some stinkers going forward (control included). A few reform the vortex and go +AO/NAO. 

So have I and there are also some very good ones 

[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

GEFS up to 180 isn't too bad , I'd say slightly favouring the OP...……...slightly

[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

South Eastern areas getting battered here! 

 

Yep , heavy snow across parts of the SE and Midlands 

[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

Why do I keep hearing the bloody 0z is the key when I also hear the 0z always downgrades things only for the 6z and 12z's to upgrade ?

[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

22 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

It did yesterday evening  - the charts at 9:57 were the 00z op and not the 12z. Whether that reflected that they didn’t believe the 12z , I wouldn’t know ......but they had the Iceland ridge as per the 00z op 

sorry jo ......

That's only Thursdays though 

[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Thanks Marcus- FAX charts will be out soon, a real headache for the person on shift for sure!!

ICON 18Z slightly more amplified, but i can see enrgy where i dont want to see it..

Thought ICON was ok

[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

18 minutes ago, Penrith Snow said:

Tonight's BBC medium range update clearly following tonight's ECM, indeed the presenter said "cold yes but this is no best from the east"

I think the GFS definitely overdoing the easterly but even the watered down version will be good compared to the miserable winter so far.

Andy

Firstly wrong thread 

But worth a response , D Bett showed cold NElies over the UK , this is on the Beeb web site updated at 20:56

" NWlies mid week , then look what happens NElies later in the week bring even colder air "……………….it clearly didn't follow ECM

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

3 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

..... and yes we are!  Superb 240 chart.... have a good day all.

 

Agreed and a good run from ECM ………….a great run 

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

ECM 192 = Stunning 

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

No downgrades on ECM- perfect in my eyes!

Plenty of snow over the UK 96-168

Agreed , looks excellent with deep cold poised to the NE

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

5 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Way too far east for snow on Tuesday, needs to slide west of the UK, as the cold air will be on the eastern side, standard showery setup, wintry on hills, snow chances start after then, see if the E'ly develops

PPN across the UK

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

16 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Massive swing away from the Easterly solution on the GEFS too

Just as an FYI for those who usually say that the ensembles are the way forward, this is a complete 180 in the space of a single run. Shannon Entropy got a friend it would seem.

Run it on just a couple of frames and see how it all sinks South, its better than you are portraying 

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

Could do with the v cold pool to the NE to fire SWards 

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

1 hour ago, mountain shadow said:

If you go through this thread you will find dozens and dozens of great GEFS and individual GEFS and none of them have come to pass.

What we need to see is consistency in the ops runs in FI pointing to "belters".

So???

The point is they are there , there have also been some very mild ones and the same can be said 

 

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

Just gone through the GEFS there are some belters in there ………….all good still me thinks 

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

Disappointing to say the very least 

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

7 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

BBC 10 day video showed both the ECM and GFS output for next week and said there is currently no favoured evolution.

As GFS has swung towards ECM , I'd be happy with their prognosis