[Cold hunt - models and chat]

The winner by a long way this year really has been the Azores High - so far 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

14 minutes ago, swfc said:

gfs 6 z looks poor at 132 hrs compared to the oz ridging wise ete  .like pulling hens teeth atm

Now I agree - its poor 

 

The OP I should add - 

 

Next!

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

3 minutes ago, swfc said:

gfs 6 z looks poor at 132 hrs compared to the oz.like pulling hens teeth atm

Same set up? just delayed by 12 hours 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Excellent

CFS

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

14 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

If anyone needed convincing that there is no sign of nirvana in the modelling then surely the above post is it, more to the point, who actually posted it!

D16 mean changes each run...…….waste of time and be skewed either way by a couple of big cold or mild outliers 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

3 minutes ago, Don said:

My optimism has dissipated now.  Enough is enough!

On January 20th …...really?

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

1 minute ago, kold weather said:

Decent snow event on the 12z ECM, nothing too outrageous but certainly 2-4 inches across most areas it seems. Quite a few GFS ensembles have something similar as well at a similar time, indeed some even have a low forming on the front which really does pump up the totals.

Afterwards plenty of snow showers moving into the western part of the country, especially NW England and W.Scotland.

Thought it was just me that was reading the charts in that way - its a v good ECM run 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

1 minute ago, terrier said:

Well just seen the country file forecast for the week ahead and let’s just say how underwhelming. Few wintry showers across the country on Monday night into Tuesday. Then a cold feel with a some frosts. Then back into westerly winds by Friday and then becoming milder into the weekend.

Which is what the 12z charts show, its no surprise 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

3 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

Yes it is a great run if your in Scotland or High Ground. We aren't all living in the Scottish mountains. Anywhere else if just gonna get transient sleet off a pm shot

 

That run will bring snow to more locations than you suggest 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

3 minutes ago, Easton Luna Boys said:

My point is, what does the term 'background signals' actually mean? We might as well say 'dark arts' which due to our general lack of understanding of the complexities of the atmosphere, is more apt. How can you say that? I hear you ask; well, the fact that we have been hearing about these signals since November, and despite a well above average December, a benign, largely HP dominated January, with the majority of the UK still not having seen a flake of snow, the Scottish ski resorts desperate for a decent fall, you have to ask the uncomfortable question, what does the term actually mean? 

It's all well and good some now wanting to rewrite the many many volumous pages on this forum of the last 8 weeks and start to talk about a backloaded winter instead - just for fun or otherwise, but sometimes, to suit their bias, people can just try too hard to will something that wasn't really there in the first place.

None of us are sure what February will bring, but remember, it's only the weather after all.

A back loaded winter was always talked about not just to suit any bias - if you looked at GP's seasonal model winter forecast ( 6 to 7 weeks ago) many models went for J F M with blocking and a stronger signal in mid way through that period , its always been there , its not just made up , clearly this was linked ( rightly or wrongly ) to any SSW that may occur .

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

1 minute ago, Leon1 said:

People in the east do much better for snow in easterlies but meanwhile us in the west are left with nothing. A NW flow (polar maritime i think) often gives us westerners a turn for some beefy snow showers.

I don't disagree the extremities of the UK will always miss out depending on where the ppn is coming from

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

ECM is very good - people are obsessed with having an Easterly 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

2 hours ago, Easton Luna Boys said:

We've been hearing about background noise since November now. It's just that; background noise.

We've also seen 'decent' charts (from a cold perspective) which have not come to anything. Hope springs eternal - actually, I'd rather Spring springs eternal! 

Well more fool you if you expected winter wonderland from Dec 1st , the noise was focussed on something called the SSW which was why comments of a back loaded winter were made . It was always thought we would have to wait until possibly Mid to late Jan into Feb ……….so here we are.

Surely you cant really think every eye candy chart will come off , I'm afraid chasing the dream happens every winter and yet we still come back.

 

Enjoy the next chase , which will start next weekend and IMO be fruitful for many 

 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

I'm much more positive about cold hitting sooooon , background noise was for a colder end to Jan and a cold Feb , currently there is an indication this is on course . The MO also hints at this , the Models so far today are looking at a wintry outlook too , details will always be uncertain at this range .

 

I'm anticipating some decent charts as we approach the end of the week into the weekend.

[Focussed Model Discussion]

240 + is excellent but ALL FI 

[Focussed Model Discussion]

6 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

Looks like a link up is about to happen in FI between Atlantic and Arctic high.

 

Squeezed out on this run

[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

1 minute ago, Mucka said:

Is ECM about to come up with its usual 10 day boom chart that always goes "pssssphhhhfff"

Not quite but the 264 and 288 charts would be good viewing  

[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

I'm happy with the pattern change if ECM is to be believed , it could well make the last week of Jan quite interesting 

[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

Have to say GEFS are interesting, and Easterly is still being sniffed at 

[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

3 minutes ago, joggs said:

Look at the polar vortex over Greenland.

Can't have factored in the ssw??.

Unbelievable. A catastrophe if its a protracted snowy cold spell your after.

A day or two off from model watching me thinks.

Why? Plenty of snow on that v cold NWly 

[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

Lets just remember 48 hours ago , ECM charts were being posted with BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM as a headline

Things can change quickly 

[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

29 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Ensemble mean of the EC at 144 is fairly conclusive I'd have thought, but like others, I hold total judgement until the 12z suite. 

If this is a fail, into Feb we look! 

So your FI starts on D 11 then ?

[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

Can someone tell me 'if' ICON is so  good why do people say " the big 3" 

[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

1 minute ago, Seasonality said:

Worth noting we haven't seen the ECM ensembles yet. Could be a mild outlier

Exactly , why can't people get that into their heads , yes commentary on runs is ok but to rule out other scenario's before seeing the ENS is foolish

[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

Again, lets see where it sits