Banbury
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Posts posted by Banbury
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ECM 264 and 288 might well be good un's lol
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ECM good to 168 then I lost interest I'm afraid
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Plenty of goodies in GEFS
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1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:
I would suggest that you ask yourselves just one question today. How confident do you feel today about a significant cold spell starting in about 10 days time compared to how confident you felt 24 to 48 hours ago? Be honest.
I'm certainly not, I expected some really good upgrades but the models have smacked me in the mouth
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1 minute ago, bradythemole said:
GFS (P) consistent with its previous output and sliding the low out to our west. Very cold over the UK. A slight improvement on the 6z run too.
important point is that it’s being consistent in recent runs, which contrasts to the GFS. Let’s hope it sticks to its guns.
Sadly its not though ,its quite different at 180
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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:
I think he means the Greenland anomalies were much stronger even in week 4.
Anything 4 weeks out is going to up for debate and will always fluctuate …………….just clarifying this for newbies
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7 minutes ago, Badgers01 said:
that Azores high is never going to give up !! 28th Jan and warm sw winds return - doesn't look much like headline grabbing cold for the end of jan !!
Warm??? not too sure
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9 minutes ago, Leo97t said:
In other news, the cfs as bad as it may be is also backing off the idea of any cold compared to a few days ago. Still in the game though, but not looking nearly as good as Thursday
Shows blocking ?????
But its CFS
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2 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:
The Ukmo is far from superb in my opinion. It's okay snow for Northeast rain hill sleet for many. It's middle of Winter....nothing special. It's been a very drawn out debacle this SSW and it would be nice to see something proper and sustained in the models. These sliding lows and faint height rises after the last few weeks taste a little like mutton dressed up as lamb
Drawn out debacle ??
In what way ? The results of a SSW aren't instant
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You have to laugh in here , snow for many from next Sunday onwards
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1 minute ago, Weathizard said:
We looking at the same charts? Up to 300 hours is Atlantic overblown lows barrelling in, woeful! Nothing to worry about though, yet.
Agreed
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2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:
WOW - i would take the GFS 18z - watch this unfold in FI, watch the uppers for a N'ly - and what happens afterwards - stonker alert!!!!
Not as good as the 12z for sure ……….but its the Op , conclusion held back until GEFS is out
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7 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:
Risky though wouldn’t take much for us to be on the wrong side of that mild/cold boundary
But those in the Sweet spot would get a hammering …………………...if only eh?
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48 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:
Yep the BAIN of winter 2018/9 and scuppered me totally. It is a real spoiler ....but GHP not an option anyway
Can ANYONE explain the mechanism why this HP has scuppered our winter and seems to be potentially problematic going forward? Could it have been forecast?
BFTP
Well it shouldn't be a surprise the winter was going to be dominated by HP
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4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:
Will be interesting EC 46 tonight.. im still not seeing evidence to support Greeny heights rises in the short medium or long term...
Sneaky suspicion the Greeny heights might become Griceland wedges..
Still hopefully positive for coldies..
Yep! Wouldn't disagree with any of that
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15 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:
I’ve always thought the GEM was the best model
850'S on that chart aren't anything with a wow factor...….48 hour later they might be
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29 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:
Country wide snow (feet in places), blizzards, severe drifting , ice days, and 100% carnage on the roads and rail system. Especially hard hit in the East and South.
It wouldn’t be melting the day after neither, severe frost (-15c in place ) once it all settled down and the LP moves off
And Id be perfectly happy with that - I guess that is due to a 'steering' high????
I have to say I'm still a tad concerned I don't see sustained blocking at Greenland
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10 minutes ago, booferking said:
What a run from the FV3 para butral cold starts from next week right to the end what a run country snowed in
A belter of a run
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Simple post
Nothings really changed
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ECM 240 ( yes 240 again ) looks a good un to me - a 264 and 288 chart would look good IMO
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5 minutes ago, Gadje said:
Take yer eyepatch off yer eye then! After 240 is when the fun is expected to begin.
Not on this run it aint , that was very obvious early doors
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6 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:
Still no height rises showing up over Greenland as far as the eye can see....out to 240hrs anyway.
Yes the flow is turning cooler with hill snow for the North. Nothing unusual for mid winter though of course will feel .cold after the incredibly benign and mild last few weeks. The grass is growing here like it's mid march
I did mention this yesterday , nothing consistent with regards a GH - early days though 8th Jan
Its a slower run with regards getting cooler /colder air from the NW
One run so no need to worry
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30 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:
Just about to say that, the excitement mounts and this will be a fantastic run.
Yes that's a belter of a run
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Still not a lot being shown in the way of a good GH yet …………...ENS look good though
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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Yes and if you are to be totally honest that is as rare as rare can be in your location, you might wait 30 years for that whereas other parts of the UK could well see that again this Winter .