[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

The whole GEFS are, game on looking at these

Looks much better , just shows the OPS are never the be all and end all 

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

Control has much better ridging than the OP 

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

Deep into FI GFS is ending with a cold push from the North , will change for the 12z no doubt 

Which didn't last that long 

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

2 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

The 06z run is also pretty dire. This bartlett type high really is out staying it's welcome now. It's up there with the worst of the 90s winters

I'd wait until the run has finished if I was you 

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

16 minutes ago, TEITS said:

I agree 100%.

Despite not posting much I have followed the posts on here and also frequently viewed the model output. The reaity is, despite the continous "excellent background signals" being posted, the lack of any decent cold model output is striking. We haven't even seen much eye candy in distant F.I i.e +300 which is unusual in itself. As I said last winter and recently, any cold signals mean nothing if this isn't being shown in the model output.

I respect those who use forecasting methods such as teleconnections but remain sceptical at our ability to use these to make an accurate forecast for a tiny island such as ours. We simply cannot make an accurate LRF using science and firmly believe a farmer has as much chance of being accurate using nature.

At the moment I see nothing that supports deep cold with HP being centred close to the UK for the next couple of weeks.

Certainly agree with regards the lack of eye candy chats , something I commented on a week or so ago , there isn't  much being latched on to …..currently. That said its Dec 31st , I'm still non the wiser with regards when we should changes due to the SSW but  by the third week we should start to see something in FI ………….if not then who knows 

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

I don't see the point in this reset business , wet dull and windy ……..why would anyone  want that ??

We are chasing an area of HP , we have one that will give us chilly temps and dry weather , hopefully it will then wriggle itself into a favourable position 

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

Groundhog Day..... not the models but the daily morning negative posts! 

huge scatter on the GEFS ENS starting earlier. 

much to be positive about! See you next year!

 

PPN spikes being pushed back further and further , the Atlantic is having no joy 

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

10 minutes ago, Ladyofthestorm said:

We live on the Isle of Lewis. Thought I changed my profile???

What a lovely place , not much fluctuation in temps by the looks of things , is it good for Snow ?

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

1 hour ago, cyclonic happiness said:

But, when was the last time we had a potentially clear HP period this long showing in the charts? I seem to remember in 1991 there were two weeks of anticyclonic gloom, and we all know what followed.

I'm looking forward to almost 2 weeks, and maybe longer, of frost and fog.  Who knows, we may get stuck under an inversion, and have sub zero temps with 1" hoar frost. 

In fact, I'd take 1" hoar frost over any transient snowfall, it's possibly the most magical weather we ever get.

Now if the high stays 'dirty' that will be dissapointing

I agree with that totally , stuck under an area of HP has its benefits for sure 

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

1 minute ago, Bartlett High said:

So whats Liam Dutton banging on about then?

He is merely talking about the HP over us and cold air going into Europe similar to what the 18z is showing - not that we will be that mild mind you 

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

4 minutes ago, evans1892 said:

18z at 210 is there going to be a stonker here?

We might just miss out but its good to see lets hope the GEFS show similar outcomes 

EDIT - gone directly South but nevertheless it could be the start 

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

1 minute ago, January Snowstorm said:

The 18z is excellent tonight for coldies 

Am surprised by the lack of comment

Its decent for sure , I wonder if that's what the Beeb were going to say at 21:55 before she was cut off .

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

2 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

 

Don’t like that last sentence! 

That's no surprise , its due to the HP sat over us 

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

4 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Lobe of death still present even at day 15, in fairness this GFS run seems to fit in fairly well with the UKM extended outlook, lows coming in from the NW with possibility of hill snow or wintriness at time for the north in the 10-15 day period.

Yes it does , unless there is a big change in their wording today ( I doubt very much ) 

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

Hideous day 10 chart from the GFS

But very different to ECM , be interesting to see where this all falls 

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@ Karlos  totally agree , thanks for the sticky 

 

 

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Back to the charts 

Where's your money ……..ECM and GFS @ 168

 

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

4 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Just looking at the ECM run in more detail now it's all updated and the 850s might not tell the whole story next weekend the 00z Op gives London a high of -1.5c at noon whilst the mean is at 2.9c

TM2 chart for 12pm next Saturday ( cheers Darren )

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

8 minutes ago, KTtom said:

That's certainly promising, good to see the Met standing firm at least. On a separate note, can posters please refrain from calling members 'moaners and 'negative just for voicing what the models actually show!

Maybe a bit of a split showing attend of the ensembles...or straw clutching??

Certainly looks from the 8th /9th a split , hopefully something will start to show up

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

Just to show balance the Met O's forecast is for below average temps , as always time will tell .

 

forecast-temp-jfm-v1.pdf

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

Maybe this is what we are waiting for ? Lets see if its the start of a positive trend ?

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

10 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

you  can put put a cross in half of january xs well,so that six weeks left to see this HLB ,that the meto office and other seasonal  models were predicting was going to be the most likely outcome during the winter,off course you wouldn’t expect it solid for 3 months,but we had hardly seen any at all.

Time to consign these longe range models to the shredder,still miles away from able to predict months in advance.

Absolutely and as you rightly say the signal wasn't for a solid 3 months of blocking , for the models to come out with any credibility HLB needs to show up and PDQ 

 

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

2 minutes ago, KTtom said:

Once again, goes to show how far we have come in terms of pattern forecasting....not very far at all ! Ecm in particular seems to have been dishing out HLB forecasts for what seems like an eternity now, as you correctly point our a third of the forecast has failed all ready.

On the plus side, it should turn colder and frosty as we loose this cloudy muck, ironically as we return to work. Can't see anything on the horizon regarding snow unfortunately, even gfs north westerlies seem to have all but vanished. Hopefully ecm is more on the money.

Yep , fair comment and as you say hopefully some chiller seasonal days with maybe some frost thrown in.

I should add I'm not a great believer in pattern matching , there are so many variables to our weather something will always throw a spanner in the works of the forecast.

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I remember watching Gav P's excellent seasonal model round up . Models were favouring HLB for DJF , the 'D' has all but vanished , currently as I type 'J' isn't showing much in the way of HLB .

 

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

1 minute ago, Chertseystreamer79 said:

Give it a week...48hrs even. Maximum Patients required. If after another week when mid Jan gets modelled in the slightly more reliable then you can get despondent!

Hope there are enough hospitals then