[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

GFS 12Z evolves nicely id say , its followed ECM through the day 

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

15 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

 Another day/2 days later the uppers would be very cold. 

As explained a million times they don’t need to be -10 in a flow from the East. 

I think the comment was on the 216 and 240 , not what's to follow 

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

Just gone through the final stages of FI in the GEFS , there are some very good one's its just the 850's that are a let down

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

Before anyone gets the Champs out  see where it sits - ECM is a cracking run 

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

Well GEFS certainly not as cold this morning 

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

Yep its a belter   OK

Actually it might slip Eastwards too quickly 

I'm not complaining though , its a step in the right direction IMO

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

FI could be a belter on this run 

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

Just now, Steve Murr said:

No pub run special, its to flat.

May drop the bomb as per usual runs but apart from that its woeful.

Take note GFS lovers- T96 its a fair chunk away, 120 even worse...

No Operational special , just to clarify .

The Para and GEFS could be spectacular 

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

They're an absolute snorter!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

YYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS

http://effis.jrc.ec.europa.eu/applications/monthly-forecast/

Stunning ……..…….nice one !

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

The big interest lies after 144 for me Blue...

144-192 is the period where the high gets flattened prior to the PV dropping SE..

Fasinating model watching..

Bang on, get to the weekend and after  it looks very interesting which is pretty much what C Fawkes was eluding to yesterday

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

3 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Was about to say the same having just run the 12z through again,maybe it is the

Case that we don't have -15 uppers and 20 days of snow showing in the models

Well not yet anyway.

C.S

I think that's the case but GFS 12z gives snow across the UK mid next week ( earlier further North )

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

Snow for most of the UK from the GFS12z ……...not sure what the moans are for 

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

1 hour ago, Dave Kightley said:

GFS second go at a slider is probably worse... Crap run!  

 

could get interesting in FL though

How can it be a crap run when you haven't looked at the GEFS

GEFS has some beauties in , nothings changed 

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

13 minutes ago, FiftyShadesofSnow said:

For balance and closer to home.

You've cherry picked that one very well...………...credit to you , look at the ENS that day sees a very brief milder waft over the UK 

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

Just now, karlos1983 said:

Never mind potential, ECM D10 I’ll rip your hand off thanks!

Yep got there in the end mate , O/T C Fawkes thinking the week after next could be interesting ……….Lets hope GFS can get to grips with things later 

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

Lets wait to see the ECM mean later , lets be fair it was odds on the 12z would throw something a tad different into the mix 

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

1 minute ago, Light Without Heat said:

UK buried.. Awesome chart 

Believe that at your peril 

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Second day on the trott we have a surpressed 00z ECM then a progressive 12z - so you end up with a big swingometer-

irritated.

What did you really expect Steve , this mornings ECM was really or very nearly as good as we could EVER have hoped , to repeat would have been a miracle ….nothings changed …………….as you know 

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

4 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Who said expect downgrades

very good ECM so far... 

No one lol I said we shouldn't be surprised ………….let it run and then comment . 

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

Just to warn ECM 'could' well be a downgrade and we shouldn't be surprised 

This mornings was stunning 

To match it would be a dream to beat it would be a miracle 

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Very nice GEFS (so far)

Some belters 

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

Gets poor after 240 

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

18Z so different to the 12z but good viewing all the same 

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

15 minutes ago, Lampostwatcher said:

Has that ever been right ?

Yes

When its dry

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

28 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

ECM May be cold early on but only has a dusting of snow. Day 10 is awefull, no other way of putting it. Let’s hope GFSp is correct and ECM is a mild outlier and reverts to earlier output tomorrow 

But if ECM has as many frames as GFS you'd be saying great run from ECM , GFS pulls itself out **** quite often with some great frames after 240 ………...and if you look at 240 what's coming after looks v good, but all in FI of course