Banbury
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Posts posted by Banbury
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Well a certain member said to me several days ago that we will be seeing some OMFG ' jaw dropping charts very soon . Well there really isn't much is there ?
I don't see anything that's out of the ordinary , the smallest crumb of comfort is what GFS control showed in deepest FI.
I mentioned a week or so ago that we aren't even seeing much in the way of eye candy charts , that still hasn't changed I'm afraid .
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1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:
If the SSW doesn't show its hand soon, it might be too late - this run is already half-way down the crapper!
What are you on about
Nothing is going to happen until Midnight on January 14th
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GFS at 180 looking to storm the Atlantic in
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3 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:
Not sure what's great about that chart? Deep trop PV over the pole and NE Canada and the deep cold into Eastern Europe.
Depends how you look at it, Id rather have the HP sat over us than a " reset " . Can take an age to block the Atlantic again
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6 minutes ago, tomjwlx said:
Don't they take the Glosea model into consideration though?
I only said GFS because the graphic he tweeted had GFS across the top
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3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:
He’s hardly covered himself in glory recently....
I wouldn't know mate , if he is making his comments after viewing one model, foolish i'd say
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UK 120 looking half decent
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Just now, tomjwlx said:
Not according to Chris Fawkes!!
Isn't he going off GFS though?
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3 minutes ago, Northern Sky said:
I think the mistake is to assume that a SSW means guaranteed cold for the UK. That's absolutely not the case because it depends on a number of factors. However what is pretty clear from the evidence is that a SSW can and often does have a major impact on Tropospheric weather patterns and that in recent years these have at times had a significant effect on our weather, with the last one being Feb/March's "Beast from the East".
There are plenty of other examples over recent years too.
All fair comments NS but we always need so many pieces of the jigsaw to come together
I guess that's why everyone likes to talk about the UK weather
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7 minutes ago, Nick L said:
No. You said that an SSW means nothing which is completely and utterly untrue.
Fair point
It means nothing in terms of guaranteeing Snow and Ice for the UK
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1 minute ago, Northern Sky said:
Quite clearly the empirical evidence of recent years completely contradicts that statement.
So SSW gives the UK cold and Snow ………...have you facts and figures to back that up
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1 minute ago, Stonethecrows said:
Fair enough mate but it's not Prozac time yet is it? lol
Oh god no , look at March this year .
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25 minutes ago, Stonethecrows said:
Which makes you wonder why all the doom and gloom. I haven't been privy to this thread over the years like many on here have but with the background signals being much better this winter, god knows what states people have been in other years.
But as i debated yesterday , signals mean absolutely nothing. SSW means nothing, surrounded by water with a big pond to the West doesn't help those wanting a ferocious Winter . The much forecast and relied on SSW can push things in our favour but the positioning of any block is down to luck...……….fingers crossed
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24 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:
Calm down, just said what’s been well documented over the last god knows how many days. This isn’t your standard winter setup right now, if it was I’d agree with what your saying. I’m saying we WILL see charts you dream of in the next days start to roll out.. followed probably by oh my god winters over charts the very next run (if you’re that way inclined). Fact remains we are potentially on the cusp of something amazing. Disagree with that then that’s fine by me... move on.
Calm lol ……...trust me weather isn't something to get hot under the collar about
I am merely coming back to you after you said I will be coming back mid January to say " I got it wrong " ROFL
I haven't commented on anything for mid January so how can I possibly be wrong LOL
Yes I am disagreeing with you ………so lets move on
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18 minutes ago, swfc said:
I'd be very wary pinning my hopes on there forcasts regarding any specific time!!! Any new members should be careful not to get there hopes up esp with a SSW and where the dice fall.tbh during SSW or not we should see at least s cold spell imo
Exactly right
Though its worth reading the 15-30 dayer on a regular basis to see if anything is being picked , currently its mentioning everything , as for an SSW no one can say with any confidence what will happen with regards cold and snow for the UK
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9 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:
Ok that’s fine, just make sure you pop back in come mid Jan and say
I got it wrong
the operationals will flip and indeed flop now for a number of days! If you don’t think that’s the case fair enough.. but I’m utterly convinced that’s exactly what’s going to happen.
I haven't got anything wrong? I cant see any charts for mid Jan, I am commenting on what I currently see.
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16 minutes ago, mulzy said:
Don’t forget potential too!
Patience and potential may sum up winter 18/19!
Anyway, the NWP is largely dreadful. Jan 15th remains the date though.
Why Jan 15th ?
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1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:
Well I must have missed all the talk of a major SSW then
Means absolutely nothing , talk all day long about a SSW , ABC or whatever you want but it doesn't guarantee snow or cold.
The biggest indicator anyone on any weather forum can use is the Met outlook , as it stands there isn't anything concrete from the Met
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Naff all at the minute
I look East every winter ………..means northing if we don't get the right set up.
Patience is very much the buzz word at the moment .
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34 minutes ago, Jason M said:
Big change in GEFS post day 192 hours. Less UK highs but lots of zonal runs in there. There are a few northerlies but they are transient in nature. Only one easterly of any note.
To balance
Well into FI and one model and in a very chaotic modelling time - that goes for mild output as well as a severely cold one.
Pinch of salt past 120-144 really
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4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:
Rubbish .....unless they mean ‘63 levels of cold !
it true that it trends colder the further it runs but to say that’s limited to feb is plain wrong
I believe that Exeter’s comments re mid month cold etc is based on covering first standard downwelling wave from the ssw rather than any specific modelling
That's Brian's take on it , not seen what Retron comes up with , worth seeing opinion and yours is very much duly noted
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1 minute ago, bluearmy said:
It’s mid lat Marcus ..... and your definition of unlucky will depend on what follows and whether it’s placement was good for trop wave forcing up into the strat ...…
Fair shout mate ……….I'm all for severe as you know , when the carrot is dangled you are just desperate to get to it
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A thought
Maybe this HP sat over us for the next 10 days or so is the blocking ??? And its just ended it an unlucky position for the UK
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18 minutes ago, mulzy said:
The NWP runs are very flat this evening. Longer term who knows but another step back in the short to medium term. Can ECM save the day again? Lets’s hope so!
To be perfectly honest Bro, the above adds nothing to the discussion either, at the time of posting GFS was out to 180 and UKMO was complete at 144 - timeframes when nothing is expected .
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I got it wrong
Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
There really isn't much , in the ENS there is some agreement out to the 3rd thereafter its all over the shop.