Danielvn
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1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:Wheres that gif with the bloke smashing his computer up- thats how I feel about the posts on here some days
Not sure why everyone is worried about day 12-13 when the GFS still cant get day 7 correct.
& still people are fretting about the 06z past 144> Hello its s*ite
As reference to the discussion yesterday with the inference of the GFS 06z going to be wrong at day 7-
Look at how much the model has changed * in favour of cold * in just 24 hours from day 7 now to day 6.
That shows the 06z bias in all its glory -
* To far East & to fast with the atlantic & pacific jet.
* To quick to eliminate heights over Greenland
* Poor at energy separation between 2 systems
* Heights to high in NE flows.
As a result of this the 850s change over 24 hours- Thats a 6 degree swing for most & at some points like NI as much as 8 degrees.
Wheres the head bang smiley.
That’s exactly how people feel reading the ramping and pseudo science posted on here sometimes. When it’s showing what people want in FI model X is great at sniffing out these situations, when it all changes then people talking about how it’s still all to play for and anything could change. We all know that when the models move away from a cold solution it’s far far more likely to verify than the eye candy charts that get posted on here all the time.
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7 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:
ECM isn't the best either, a transient northerly followed by a toppling high
But, that's the 00z ECM which probably doesn't verify very well, unless it's showing cold of course
<something about the ECM not handling these situations well with no evidence whatsoever attached>
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13 minutes ago, coldwinter said:
It's still better than the UKMO, or has that now been binned as it doesnt show what we want?
Probably more runs required
I stupidly come back every winter hoping to see something different, but every winter I read the same posts which hype up something off in FI, disregard models that don’t show cold and use their crayons on model charts to show what they want the weather to do.
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1 hour ago, johnholmes said:This is a serious question, why do some of you, usually when a model shows not what you want, do you post,..'more runs needed' ?
I don’t get it either, sometimes it feels like people get a buzz out of seeing cold charts regardless of whether they actually verify or not.
i couldn’t care less what some chart shows in 7-10 days, I want to see white stuff outside!
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2 hours ago, JoeShmoe said:Have to say Knocker your mid range forecasts are nearly always spot on so kudos to you and please don’t stop posting as you’ve become a very reliable source (far better than the media anyway!)
They are great aren't they. I think that comes from choosing to look at a reliable timeframe and giving a forecast regardless of the weather that is being forecast as opposed to only posting when the outputs match what he wants. This thread is much better for having Knocker in it
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19 hours ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:
That goes from amateurs like me all the way up to the professionals at the met office. Some one in another post has pointed out that we should not treat the Met office 15-30 day extended as gospel and indeed we should not, but we do have a right to expect it to come somewhere near to fruition when it repeatedly suggests the likelyhood of high pressure to build to the north or over scandi as it pretty much did for six weeks from christmas to mid feb.
Have you heard of the "Gambler's Fallacy"? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy It explains perfectly why because there's 100 times where there's a 20% chance of cold weather why there could be 0 cold spells or 100 cold spells.
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4 hours ago, Mattwolves said:
Maybe! But wouldn't it be nice to be able to turn round and say all of us on netweather had just been part of the coldest weather in a generation! This place would be in meltdown, I think we deserve it, we probably spend more time than anywhere in the world looking for these extremes, and we end up looking at the dross that gfs spills out in 2 weeks. We have major flips, it happens, it will happen, the chase can't be given up till the final 3rd of the month.
Can we stop using phrases like “I think we deserve it”?
The weather doesn’t respond to what people deserve or not. I mean how does one come to deserve cold weather?
Also, what kind of person goes around telling their family about what the weather’s going to be like based on background signals?!?!?!?
i sometimes tell my wife about possible snow events up to a week out and I end up with egg on my face more often than not.
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1 hour ago, mathematician said:
The reason why people are very disappointed at this winter is because we have been promised Narnia and tons of snow with alle the "positive background signals" for months.
First it should have been early December...then 'wait it's going to be mid-December'....then 'be patient and we will have a white Christmas'...
then it was 'ok nothing has happened yet but mid January for sure!'...then 'well ok, but from the 26th of January on it will be memorable!'...now it's going to be 10th of February. Then it will be the end of February and soon the winter will be over.
Let's be frank here, like it or not on a scale of 1 to 10 this winter has been a 0. And it looks like nothing is going to change anytime soon. Time to move on I suppose...
Errr that has been snow this year in Western areas and further south than in a lot of previous winters. It's hardly a 0. I think people need to stop being so IMBY.
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10 minutes ago, Cloud 10 said:
GFS day 10 Europe...
Meanwhile in Australia....
Being that I’m originally from Australia, I can pretty much tell you without having to look, that there’s a trough sitting somewhere off the coast of Western Australia.
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5 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:
Consider this Mike:
It might be because they're too scared to post a differing view to those promising "Boom synoptics", "Snow for all", "businesses will have to shut down", "the UK will be paralysed by snow", etc, etc. That is why some posters dont post for fear of upsetting the excited consensus.
Anyway, as we're in the banter thread here's my boring, repetitive take which i've posted a few times lately:
UK will live off the scraps - North Westerly cold incursions are almost bound to happen even in a typically 'average' UK Winter; sustained Winter Easterlies or North Easterlies (say 3 to 4 days plus) are rare for the UK.
I don’t think anyone is worried about upsetting anyone. If you so much as go into the model thread and suggest caution then you get accused of actually going out into the Atlantic and pumping up low pressure systems to scupper their cold weather.
WHAT PEOPLE POST ON A FORUM DOES NOT AFFECT THE WEATHER IN ANY WAY SHAPE OR FORM and I wish some people would get over themselves.
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29 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:
One thing that bugs me on here is the posters who only crawl out of the woodwork when things are going pear shaped...
By the way, looks like another broken promise from Michael Gove...'winter is coming' he promised if MPs voted down May's Brexit deal.
No one is happy about the downgrades, the reason why they are coming out of the woodwork is to YET AGAIN point out the folly of putting so much faith in stuff that’s in FI. I think some of the people held in such high regard need to have a good look at themselves. They won’t, but they should.
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6 hours ago, Bristle boy said:
Maybe that is why Coldisbest posted in this thread to likely avoid a 'put down' ridicule. Just maybe your reply shows why many dont dare post in the mod thread for fear of ridicule.
It makes me giggle when people hold up the model thread as some bastion of weather prediction skill. People in there seem to only be able to predict one type of weather and seem to get it wrong 99 times out of 100.
But yeah, be scared! Model boyz gonna getcha! *waves GFS in a menacing manner*
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29 minutes ago, johnholmes said:
It does make me smile when, fairly regularly, apparently the models 'scream' this or that.
I've been in the main computer room at Bracknell( pre Exeter days), they need a lot of care to stop overheating and are a bit noisy but I have never heard them scream, ever!
Do they have feelings? So many people seem to have feelings that go outside of what the models say. I've got a feeling that at the end of January people are going to have a feeling about the middle of Feb, at which point they'll have a feeling about late Feb and you can guess what they'll have a feeling about in Late Feb!
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34 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:
Think the word to sum up the 12z GEFS would be POTENTIAL
Even if it doesn't lead to cold at the first attempt I believe there will be more chances as January progresses and hopefully one of them will lead to the UK hitting the snow jackpot
Remember that anomalies don’t equal pressure.
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1 minute ago, snowangel32 said:
Sorry if i hurt your feelings it wasn't intentional. Will try to refrain myself in future okay. Now bk to models plz the hunt for Snow is on as its bloody freezing here so well and truly found the cold.
My feelings are unhurt, don’t worry! Lol.
had to get the gloves out today, hoping it gets cold enough soon that I need to get the balaclava out!
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15 hours ago, snowangel32 said:
Lottery numbers why youre at it plz.
The silly thing is that he wouldn’t get that sort of reply if he said he “had a feeling” that there was cold weather on the way.
The thing is as we’ve seen countless times before, background signals don’t guarantee anything for us on this little island which is usually in the firing line of the incessant Atlantic wind and rain. They increase our chances, but they don’t guarantee anything. How many times has the NAO looked favourable and we end up with high pressure just that bit too far west?
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2 hours ago, Team Jo said:
Awful Lot of folks on here this morning with an opinion about how silly looking at day 10 models are. Interestingly not many of them had much to say on any output analysis at all until now. Amazing how we have a slew of new experts when the models don’t behave as expected
if you’re in that camp of ‘day 10 model watching is pointless’ then might I suggest you stick to watching the televised weather forecasts and basking in the knowledge that you will probably always be right, and then you can leave those who like to make a stab at a forecast based on output analysis alone to pursue a hobby they enjoy.
nobody gets a prize for being right or wrong and it’s frankly just a bit poor if you enjoy being the person who takes pleasure in saying ‘I told you so’.
there’s lots of other places on the internet for your badly articulated ‘realism’.
Thanks.
Apologies if it comes across like that. But it's no different than the people who delight in posting charts which show Nirvana and delight in getting loads of likes for their post and then disappear when it doesn't happen or there are no good charts to post.
I don't mean to come across as one of those people who has a forecasting stone (you know the meme!), I'm a coldie at heart who rather optimistically bought a snow shovel this year and I've been around long enough to know that looking for potential too far in the distance is just going to end up in frustration for a lot of people.
Anyway there still seems to be a bit of snow next week, just not quite what we were all hoping for. Oh well.
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59 minutes ago, markw2680 said:
The trouble is people are constantly looking too far ahead that’s why the disappointment, if you constantly look for stunning charts right in fi then the dates will just keep getting pushed back or it just changes as if it was never there, remember small changes early on end up been pretty big by the end of the run.
there will be some sort of cold next week before just maybe the proper cold beast just around xmas
It's like this every year. People keep looking into FI for cold weather, someone "knowledgeable" talks about a sausage or something and then people get excited up until the point that it doesn't actually happen. But people never learn and let this happen again and again and again but yet somehow people seem to keep their mythical status as almighty predictors of weather. It's great to talk about stuff in FI, but at least watch it get close enough to get reliable before getting too excited.
That said you've not done yourself a favour making predictions out in FI...
Anyway, back to waiting for some nicer charts to turn up in a more reliable timeframe...
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58 minutes ago, Devonshire said:
Remind me; is this thread about the hunt for cold or the extremely persistent and wide-ranging hunt for mild?!
You make a good point, but it's also not about ignoring reality, if you want that then go on the Exactaweather facebook group!
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9 minutes ago, Stuie W said:
You can`t trust anything at day 15, it`s just unfortunate that the default pattern we live in most of the year is zonal which makes posting that a little bit of a cop out tbh.
No, it makes it massively sensible.
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8 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:
Yes, I really don't see the point of talking about weather if your just interested in it from a sunbathing point of view, cant think of anything more boring than sitting next to a pool in spain just lying down.
Someone can probably just delete my reply, sorry!
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On 22/08/2018 at 07:06, mother nature rocks said:
For ‘more balance’ as temps are normally undercooked by 1-3 degrees that would take many more places above 30*c.
So we might get up to 25-27 degrees IF we're lucky. Why do people seem to think that the max temp is the forecast temp for that period?
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4 hours ago, Leo97t said:
The first week of September is looking baking hot and heat much more well spread across the UK. The uppers aren't even that high an a raw output of 30C is being thrown out. Possible the hottest start to September is on the cards with minima into the high teens across Southern England. Another ridge is ready to take the previous ones place on the Gfs 18z
And for balance, the min chart for the same time. Also, it’s predicting 30 for London on your chart, hardly widespread.
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5 hours ago, Djdazzle said:
The extended ones are next to useless. They give a range of outcomes and tend to be non commital. The problem is, they go well beyond what can reliably be predicted but the general public believe them as a done deal. People actually make outdoor plans based on them. Last week, the update was signalling a high chance of hot weather. Now it’s changed. The extended models on which they are based flip around. So I stand by what I said.
If they’re non-commital, might that not be an indication that things are perhaps a touch up in the air?
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The Demise of the Greenland High in Winter
in Historic Weather
Posted
Fascinating bit of work you’ve done!