[Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.]

Ok, a good example.

 

When I was young in the 80s and 90s there were some really vicious wind storms about, the kind where you had to hang on to things like fences and had a genuine fear of being blown away or into the road etc.

But the main thing I remember is the noise, I'd open the front door and the telegraph wires would be almost screaming in the wind. This happened ever year at least once or twice.

I've not heard that noise since around the early 90s in this street or any one around here, which suggests that the weather is less violent, less varied and just less damn interesting than it was back then.

 

It's not about hot and cold, it's about variety and extremes, and our weather is the least extreme it's been here for as long as I can remember (38 years old).

 

That is what is frustrating me, not the lack of cold. I'd sell my granny for a spell of normal 'exciting' weather :-P 

Were you out of the UK from December 2013-Feb 2014? We had shedloads of wind (I live on the North Wales coast) and people living on the coast were constantly subject to flood warnings. At the end of 2012 we had severe flooding in St Asaph. So from my point of view the weather has been quite violent over the last couple of years.

 

A simple explanation for the telephone wires not screaming anymore is that you might have moved somewhere where the telephone wires are more sheltered by trees, buildings or terrain. It could be that trees have grown and sheltered the wires if you live in the same place. It could be that a small change in direction means that the wires are in the shadow of a building. Either way the sound that telephone wires make in one street is not really the most reliable of observations. People's hearing also deteriorates as they get older.

 

All the evidence would appear to point towards weather actually getting more violent in the UK. That railway line at Dawlish has stood there for rather a long time and it got smashed to bits last year. The flooding on the Somerset levels was hardly gentle weather either. Everyone has their favourite sort of weather, I like snow in the winter, crisp dry spings, cool summers with rain and the odd clear day with temps in the low 20's and Autumn's that are cool with a bit of wind. Sadly it's very seldom that I get my sort of weather all year round.

 

If you find the weather here boring then you should move to where I grew up which is Perth in Western Australia. In the summer it's just varying degrees of the same thing and how baked you get depends on whether the trough is off the coast or inland and because it's such a big landmass with no real mountain ranges, the weather is boringly consistent.

 

IMHO we're blood lucky in the UK to have such changeable and interesting weather with the potential for a bit of everything.

[Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.]

The idea that there is not currently an unprecedented snow drought in this country and that people have unrealistic expectations is the only thing that is a bigger joke than this winter.

 

All the lying snow there's been here (where the long term average is almost 20 days lying per annum) in the past 21 months has been a transitory dusting of less than 1cm and that was nearly 14 months ago. The notion that there were similar snowless spells in other eras not noted for snowy winters such as the 1920s, 30s, 70s and 90s is laughable 

 

So far on a par with last winter for unrelenting tedium and lack of extremes. The most relentlessly zonal since 1988/89. Consequently it has been ridiculously dry and absolutely pathetic for frost and snow. Actually less snowy than last winter, so far, with just 4 days of falling snow/sleet and nothing lying at all. Only two proper winter frosts with the rest being shallow and transitory - the type associated with autumn and spring.

 

While there has been no real cold it's only reached 10C three times with no foehn effects or anything noteworthy. Monotonous beyond belief just like the past 13 months.

 

So that the Festive Holiday wasn't a complete write-off like the past 3 years I took a trip up to Braemar last week to enjoy proper winter scenes. Even there it was poor by usual standards with nothing more than a couple of cm on the ground but still the only lying snow I saw at ground level during 2014 

It would be nice if you'd try and respect others than make out that their opinions are a joke. Thanks

[Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.]

even 1 day of lying snow would be nice though.  hardly asking for much really.  we might as well be in the tropics otherwise.

 

The phrase "hardly asking for much really" almost sounds like you think we deserve cold snowy weather or something. The thing we should all realise is that the weather will do whatever it does and that's that. As for "we might as well be in the tropics otherwise"..... have you ever been to the tropics? For a good chunk of the year you'll have boring rain EVERY afternoon.

[Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.]

Likewise I cant understand how people can get excited about snow and cold..as for normal winters stats are made up of winters where there are more than say 15 days of snow and those where there is none....therefore im guessing the figures are skewed so im guessing when it is not snowy or snow free your best bet is between 2-3 days of snow lying.

Exactly. People are confusing the "average" with what is likely to happen most years. Statistically speaking a snowless winter is probably more likely for a lot of people than a winter with 5 days of lying snow.

[Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.]

The majority of us haven't seen a decent PM shot yet. Sure they've delivered at elevation in the North of the UK but have failed to deliver anything other than rain showers for the rest of us. This has been especially disappointing because I have witnessed numerous Cheshire Gap snow shower trains in previous winters from PM shots. This one has failed abjectly so far with its literally watered down efforts.

Saw quite enough of that kind of "fun and games" last year thank you. Such weather ceased to interest me once it began to impact on my finances (replacing fence panels - repeatedly...as well as ridge tiles.

 

Carl, we had lying snow in Prestatyn and there was a fair bit on the Denbigh moors on Boxing day and I think it probably lasted a while. Jump in your car and you'll easily find some snow.

[Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.]

It's not often i post in here, but i gotta say this Winter is really starting to annoy me!!

And by the looks of the models at present it seems that i am only going to get more and more annoyed as time goes by.

 

Some folk haven't seen snow for nearly 2 years (maybe longer for some)! Shocking really!

 

I'm off to do a snow dance IMBY...

 

 

Not really. I've only lived in the UK for 8.5 years and in that time I would say I've only had 3 snowy winters where I've lived (Prestatyn, North Wales) and only 1 of those was 2012/2013 where we were lucky and it was severe but only stuck around for a little while the couple of times it snowed.

 

I think people need to align their expectations with what is normal in the UK and winters like 2009/2010 and 2010/2011 are very much NOT the norm.

 

I looooove the snow and watch the charts as much as the next person, but if you go into every winter hoping for a severe winter and half expecting it then you're going to be disappointed 9/10 times.

[Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.]

I think far too many get carried away with eye candy charts at +264 plus and then when we get closer to said event people get despondent because a shortwave has been picked up on. A few posters kept it to the realms of logic and highlighted the perils and pitfalls as well as what  the "not so popular" model runs were touting. 

 

The problem also seems that people cherry pock the models that give them what they want to.

[Model Output Discussion - The Run In To Christmas]

A quick question for those who have a far greater understanding of this than I and apologies if this is not right forum for this question. Why is that America can forecast their Winter snow and weather (be it vast snow storms or just a harsh very cold period) a lot further ahead than us? Or like us, could their models be showing a raging snow storm (equivalent to our Easterly say) and then this get dropped within a very short window, like 72/48 hours. 

 

Thanks in advance 

 

Because it's a big continental mass and the fact that you've not got 5 different air masses trying to fight for supremacy. Polar, Polar Maritime, Tropical Maritime, Polar Continental and Tropical Continental. So many different forces at work make for variable and unpredictable weather.

 

I'm originally from Perth in Western Australia and the weather forecasting there is far easier and very seldom wrong.

[Winter 2014-15 thread]

Interesting FI output - AO looks to go deeply negative and NAO looks to turn neutral

 

 

 

GFS-P 12z looks dump snow across scotland and notherrn england between xmas and new year:

 

 

 

No doubt this will change come tomorrow!

Correct me if I'm wrong, but is this not a snow RISK map rather than how much snow? Obviously common sense dictates that you're probably more likely to get more snow where there's higher risk, but it could also mean just a flake or two.

[White Christmas 2014]

Chances of a white Christmas now looking very very slim.

If the 0z are similar tomorrow morning its all over.

 

It's a brave person that takes charts as fact 10 days out

[Weather in the general media (Newspaper features etc)]

Exacta weather Extra is here yes you can now view the weather charts on his site just like these 2 below

 

 

Anyone who fancies joining must pay £24.99 for a year or £49.99 life time after the first 100 subscribers the prices rise to £49.99 and £199.99 respectively

 

 

http://www.exactaweather.com/Exacta_Weather_Extra.html

Meh! I'm going to buy two subscriptions while they're still cheap!

[Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.]

How many more days before we can consign this month to the bin?

Nearly halfway through and for the majority of us it's been pretty poor fare. The models frankly don't give much scope for optimism for the foreseeable future either unless you are up a Scottish mountain.

Have only had 1 air frost so far (3rd Dec) and not so much as a single "wintry" shower...plenty of rain and rain showers though. Not experienced anything yet to convince me that it's "better than last winter". Better than last winter in my book would be either cold snowy weather or mild and dry weather. It's neither though, it's cold wet garbage. Sorry, just calling it as im seeing it.

 

I work in Deeside and we've had loads of ice pellets and a fair bit of sleet. We're only 12 days into December, still got January and February to go yet!!!!!!

[The Seasonal Forecast Thread]

My seasonal forecast

 

3-7 December 2014: The entrenched cold front arrives, harsh frosts every night and temps as low as -5C but not snowfall.

8-15 December 2014: The cold really kicks in now, highs of -3C for the early part of the week, possibly edging above freezing in the latter part. 2-5cm of snow this week.

16-22 December 2014: The cold kicks in even harder Mon-Thurs highs of 1C and lows of -10C with highs of -11 and lows of -20 widespread by the end of the week. Around 25cm of snow will accumulate Mon-Thurs; too cold to snow for much of the end of the week. Permafrost possible,

22-29 December 2014: Week fairly consistent highs of +/- 2C with lows of around -10C on lowlands. Around 50cm of snow for the entire week, with 25cm of that falling on christmas day.

29 Dec - 4 Jan 2014: More of the same, further build up of snow between 60cm and 90cm within Mon-Fri and a further 120cm-150cm over the weekend. Temps staying relatively mild at -3C to 3C for much of the week.

4-11 January 2014 - No snow this week, clear flies and harsh frosts. No melt either as temps ranging from -20C lows to -9C highs freeze the snow.

12-18 January 2014 - Similarly to last week, low temperatures of -18C to -9C highs.

19-25 January 2014 -  The temps warm up a bit with lows of -4C by the end of the week, highs around 2-3C. Around 45cm of snow on Monday, dry to Thursday and then around 500cm in harsh blizzards on Saturday night into sunday dawn (falling a 60cm per hour).

26 Jan - 1 Feb: Temps decrease again, snow freezes and temps around -11C highs and -30C lows widespread, much colder in mountainous areas.

2-8 Feb: Mass snowmelt begins with a warm front coming in from the south west. Mass temperature increases to around 11C low and 15C high - melt snow extremely fast, with issues further compounded by 

9-16 Feb: Flood relief efforts hampered by widespread gusts of between 110mph and 180mph. These come from the north bringing with them heavy snow showers, although little accumulation on mostly sodden ground.

16 Feb - 1 March: The conditions turn spring like with average temperatures and little precipitation. 

 

 

I think you've got the end of January wrong but otherwise I think you're spot on!