Danielvn
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Posts posted by Danielvn
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Just now, SLEETY said:
Erm what were most people saying about this cold spell, an hour or so ago was it not happening or something
I didn’t realise that the charts had already verified...
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4 minutes ago, sausage said:
what a joke all this ssw has been. the models just refuse to give us any belting cold weather with much snow. winter running out fast now. feel totally deflated!! gosh folks must have been lucky in the past to see such big snow events! i really thought this was going to be something special!!
How is it a joke? The weather does what the weather does and to have any expectations of it is foolish to say the least. People need to stop being so emotional about this, regardless of how you think or feel the weather will do what the weather does.
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On 14/02/2018 at 14:27, Mike Poole said:
The models will take it in their stride.
It's common misconception that I've noticed on here - that the models are somehow programmed with an envelope of expected evolutions and struggle with extreme evolutions outside of it.
They don't work like that.
They simply take the best guess of the state of the atmosphere at the start of the run (T0) and then simulate their best approximation to all the laws of physics that affect the atmosphere (or atmosphere and oceans in the case of the seasonal ones e.g. CFS) for the length of the run. So the fact that the world is warmer than it used to be is irrelevant.
No no no, doesn't work like that. X model always struggles with Y conditions therefore it'll be cold and snowy, not 20 degrees and rainy as the models are suggesting.
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3 hours ago, Chief Wiggam said:
Spring is coming but MOD thread is in denial....... Just awaiting the first "see you in November" post. I find it all rather bizarre when "we deserve it" and similar are posted...
There should be a crypto currency that you can mine with the tears of cold loving posters on the net weather mod thread.
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48 minutes ago, joggs said:
Watch out for the flying toys and dummy's in mod thread lol.
Good easterly at day 10 though lololol.
Nailed on like a Murr sausage!
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1 hour ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:
I give up on the Model thread!
I appreciate that the models are hardly consistent ion their output, but that's all the more reason to think logically rather than reacting to the changes and typing agonised posts one minute and excited the next. What's worse, IMO, are the posts that seem to be deliberately annoying other members, usually mild ramps without any evidence provided to support the assertions that are being made. Cumulatively, the effect is that no two posts on the same model run seem to agree. I appreciate that individual members' interpretations of the outputs will generate differing views on what the models are showing, but we seem to have opinions at present that range from deep cold and snow through to late spring warmth. I'm half expecting to see someone predict a Spanish Plume with a Mesoscale Convective System!Even worse are the posts which react to mild posts as if the poster has literally summoned the warmer weather. Ferchrissakes! Nothing posted on here will make a difference to the weather!
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18 minutes ago, knocker said:
As these events are, by definition, quite rare it does explain why much of the time is taken up by imaginative hyperbole going under the guise of potential.
As least the rarity of these events means Sydney typically doesn't have too many issues.
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24 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:
You're on a weather forum, the interest is going to lie in "weather events" - another drab, mild, slightly wet and overcast February day is not a weather event. A foot of snow in March is a "weather event" - therefore focus in the model thread is naturally going to err towards discussing the event potential, you'll find as we get into summer discussion will turn to potential for heatwaves and storms; again these are actual "events".
I'm aware I'm on a weather forum, but come on! Once you're wrong 10 times you really shouldn't go and make the same mistake again and again and again and again year after year after year.
Show some restraint, let it get within +120 or so and then get excited and talk about sausages. Anything before that is just setting yourself up for disappointment.
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2 hours ago, mountain shadow said:
The reality is the weather in this country is relatively boring, and bar a few occasions, we don't get extremes of weather and the weather is relatively easy to predict with a West to East jet over a warm Atlantic.
Many in the MOD thread, and I include myself in this, like to see more extreme events in particular snow events, therefore some get hung up on each and every run if snow is a possibility.
The thing is I love cold snowy weather too. But the little I know in meteorological terms tells me that it's going to be a relatively rare occurrence and the snowy period in early December is better than we get most years IMBY. Some of the language is puzzling too, "why does x region always get shortchanged when it comes to cold?" and so on. The weather will do what the weather will do regardless of whether you want it to or not.
Oh btw mods, I saw your edit on my post and won't use that word in the future
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I'm a serial lurker as can be seen by my join date and lack of posts but is it just me or does the MOD thread just seem to be full of people who want to find charts that illustrate cold, as opposed to discussing the model output with a view to making accurate predictions of what the weather is going to be like?
When the GFS doesn't do what people want then the ECM is the model to choose and if that doesn't do what people want then it's NAVGEM or something else. The cold rampers always seem to be looking to find a way to twist things to suit their end goal. There's also the desperate move of showing how in X year we went from conditions similar to where we are now to snowpocalypse conditions as if this is somehow a worthwhile way of making predictions.
The weather does what it does and doesn't care a bit for what you want, need or what you feel you 'deserve'.
I'm probably jaffa cakesing on someone's bonfire here, but how many times over the years has something been 'nailed on' and then just not happened or been watered down at best? It comes across as chart chasing rather than a genuine interest in the weather that actually happens outside your window.
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1 hour ago, Carl46Wrexham said:
Or torpedo. Punishment being a week in the stocks being pelted with rotten fruit.
People keep saying it because they think that repeating it makes it more likely. Sadly this is why I have just stopped reading the model thread altogether
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1 hour ago, wishingforsnow said:
We seem to be getting closer to 'crunch time' regarding what could happen to the PV and when the 'torpedo' will strike also what will happen after. Will be interesting to see how the models and forecasts will react.
I do love how someone just made this torpedo thing up as a bit of a hopecast and suddenly it's a thing that people are waiting for.
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5 minutes ago, bobbydog said:
so Barry... what's your latest expert analysis....
This place should have a reputation system based on the accuracy of fore/hopecasts rather than whether you like what someone is making up, would be much better.
Sure, there was cross model agreement, but the real cold never got within a reliable range and that's why we are where we are.
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7 minutes ago, snow freak said:
'hopefully'? what a spoilsport he is. I mean whats a few days of snow after the awful December mild mush we've been subjected to.
How dare he influence the weather! Hope you've complained to your local MP
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3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:
Maybe..
However take two northerlys..
One is a direct N'ly, straight from the pole affecting the UK
The second one is affecting somewhere in N Canada on our latitude
Now look at a globe and tell me why, at our latitude, the N'ly is watered down to nothing (despite not travelling far enough to actually modify all that much), whereas the Canadian N'ly is a mass of cold 5 times the size of our displaced cold pool which doesn't modify? At our latitude a -40 polar cold pool should not modify that much that we're left with uppers of -5 and a cold pool which is 5 times less large than it started out at!
Not to be funny, but that's what happened, complaining about it isn't going to make it better? Also, this isn't really model discussion?
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That could be something to do with the media's penchant for publishing the 'unusual'. Does mainstream science interest the Daily Express? And look at all the health-garbage the Mail trots out? IMO, the gutter-press is only interested in what they consider 'zany'...
Fair points......
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It must be so nice to be able to believe people like Booker when it comes to climate change related topics (or anything for that matter, like evolution, smoking, asbestos). No matter what the evidence, Booker will always go against it with a combination of half truths, misunderstandings and lies, always to convince his readers that the world is fine, there's nothing to worry about and it's just a big scaremongering conspiracy.
It would be so nice to just ignore all the experts, their reports, their studies, their conclusions and simply believe the random columnist that tells me what I want to hear.
The problem is that when scientists make stupid claims that turn out to be wrong, it convinces the average joe on the street and gives people like him ammunition.
The sad thing is that with all their science, they've been spectacularly wrong. If only they were sensible and honest about their predictions then perhaps people would be more willing to buy into climate change. Good science requires you to make predictions on a long term basis on a number of occasions and be correct most of the time, the problem is that they appear to devise a model that explains what happened in the past, use it to make predictions and end up wrong. If I was a scientist with a model I believed in, I'd be sitting in a corner making my predictions in private, seeing if they come true and after a few years of success, then I'd go public!
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and it should also be pointed out that people looking at averages in terms of snow are doomed to disappointment.
It only takes a large event like 2009/10 or 2010/2011 to skew the stats.
Lets say we've got 60 years of records and they say that on average there's 1 day of snow laying per year. That could be 4 years of having 15 days of snow laying, 6 days of 10 days of snow laying or 1 year where there were 60 days of snow laying on the ground.
I've only lived in the UK since June 2006 and the summer which seemed to last up till the start of December, but what is quite obvious to me is that there is nothing such as an average winter and certainly not in my area. We've had a couple of snowpocalypse events, but far more winters where we've had nothing more than a bit of sleet. IMHO last years winter was the least wintry I can remember as Snowdonia never seemed to have any snow cover, we only had 1 very soft frost and I only saw snow falling once on high ground on my way to work.
P.S the weather doesn't care what you want or would rather have or what you deserve or what you should have or what is "normal" so stop whining and accept that what happens will happen and leave it there.
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I would have thought this winters has been far better than lasts years bog and mild fest for most in the UK. Granted the snowfall has been miserly for most lowland folk for nearly 2 years now but frosts have returned for many this season. Nothing worst than the locked in SW spin cycle of last winter. Dare I say, welcome high pressure, it may end up in a more favourable postion for you guys as things can still change quickly and provide a surprise .
C
People have short memories. I had 1 frost.... yes.... 1 frost last winter. This winter I must have had close to 10 or maybe even a dozen frosts which is OK. Have had snow laying for 1 or 2 days. Now obviously that's IMBY, but people need to realise that just because they haven't seen a flake of snow, it doesn't mean that loads of others haven't seen snow. This is better than last years weather IMHO as there were dangerous winds numerous times last year as well as flooding.
Surely dry and cool is better than winder, wet and mild?
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What a rubbish winter so far. It was much better last year with hail falling from the sky every other day and sometimes every day for weeks and sometimes it would accumulate. This year all we can manage, at least down here, is the old light rain shower and temperature around 7C. During a northerly In a proper winter the 510 DM line would be at least approaching Scotland and occasionally would extend into the SE yet at the moment it is lost somewhere near the pole. Complete rubbish however I live in hope and the next week or so does look a bit more interesting. This is more like it !.http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=3&ech=6
Goes on a weather forum, talks about hail in winter
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Even though this 'cold' spell has been pretty lame for much of the South especially, I've loved all the sunny days and frosty mornings, great stuff. Over 5 weeks of winter to go! This winter has been nowhere near the vileness of last years IMHO and there's time for something truly cold to come our way yet.
Agree on that, can't believe some people are saying that this year is worse than last year, last year was just wind rain and mild, rinse and repeat over and over and over again. I think we had one frost last winter.....
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I live 2 miles away from where that video was shot - seriously, don't bother driving to see it, it was barely a coating. The mountains may have looked very white but there was a cm at most and it was very short lived. If you wet yourself with excitement that, then I envy you.
I'm not saying it's 10 feet of snow, but it's something. I live near Prestatyn and we had a lot less here. Went over the woodhead pass to Sheffield yesterday and it was gorgeous.
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For anyone in North Wales too lazy to get in their car and drive.......
http://www.dailypost.co.uk/news/north-wales-news/watch-stunning-footage-north-wales-8474415
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I remember it well. as a child it was brilliant being cut off, not so great for my parents though. The fact is that no snow event has ever come close to it and as it was over 30 years ago we must be due another event like this at some point. I just hope it happens before I get to old to stick me bum on sledge and shriek!
The gamblers fallacy, just because we haven't had a stupidly snowy winter recently doesn't make it more likely now.
This "cold spell" has in reality been pretty half arsed. Yes its been fairly cold, but nothing special whatsoever.
Places at elevation in more Northern parts of the UK have done OK at times. For the rest of us, this winter (so far) can be summed up as distinctly underwhelming. Not one single PM shot has delivered anything remotely wintry, even in areas such as mine, which in many winters gone by have done very well indeed from Polar Maritime North Westerlies. This season's versions have been watery let downs, following on from ridiculously mild warm sectors.
When I read posts in the Model thread about a return to alternating PM/TM weather, I find it hard to suppress a dismissive tut.
Sure its not as poor as last year's joke of a winter, but its still been a poor one for most. Yes there is still February and its statistically the coldest month...and all that, but its impossible to ignore the fact that the clock is ticking....and time is starting to run out for genuine cold weather opportunities, especially the further south in the UK one lives.
Carl, have you considered jumping in your car? Drive up to the Denbigh moors and I guarantee you will find lying snow, obviously if you'd gone there a day or two you'd have had more, but there was snow right near you, you just didn't make the effort. IMBY at its best......
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I appreciate that the models are hardly consistent ion their output, but that's all the more reason to think logically rather than reacting to the changes and typing agonised posts one minute and excited the next. What's worse, IMO, are the posts that seem to be deliberately annoying other members, usually mild ramps without any evidence provided to support the assertions that are being made. Cumulatively, the effect is that no two posts on the same model run seem to agree. I appreciate that individual members' interpretations of the outputs will generate differing views on what the models are showing, but we seem to have opinions at present that range from deep cold and snow through to late spring warmth. I'm half expecting to see someone predict a Spanish Plume with a Mesoscale Convective System!
Model Moans, Ramps and Banter
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Because it says what they want to hear.
i sometimes wonder whether these people like having cold and snowy weather or cold and snowy model output.