Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?

Danielvn

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    125

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Posts posted by Danielvn

    Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    10 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

    Met Office updates are a waste of space. They are always well off the pace and take days to react after the model output changes.

    And how many times have the Met Office been right because they don’t change their forecast just because the models show a change over a few runs.

    The Met Office are where they are because they do a good job...

    • Like 5

    Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, offerman said:

    Brilliant question SnowBlizzard. My app actually shows temps rising, coldest day Tuesday at 2 but then up to 4. 

    I suspect if it snows then we will be seeing temps of -4 and with snow -6 in the day -10-15 at night due to snowcover.

     

    BBC ALWAYS UNDERPLAY temps by a few degress in cold blasts and they do the same with hot weather, always 3 degrees out until nearer the time and then they raise temps or lower them

     

    BBC will also lower their temps near the time by 3 degress just watch them. They are fence sitters for sure.

    I would very much agree with this statement. They always seem to be a couple of degrees off a few days out. I miss the range of possible temps they used to give on their 5-10 day forecasts...

    • Thanks 1

    Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    21 minutes ago, Nizzer said:

    In my opinion, if I wanted to be cautious, I wouldn't visit this site, I would just visit the BBC/Met Office site. I want ramping and excitement. I want members digging out the coldest and snowiest perturbations. If you don't want to be dissapointed, get your weather news from the pro's!

    If you want cold charts and aren’t bothered about whether they verify then I’ll send you a load of maps and some crayons? I come here to get an idea of what is likely to happen in the near to distant future.

    Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    21 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

    No, no. Being cautious is fine. There is a line between being cautious and winding people up though (you're not crossing it btw).

    But it’s just so stupid how people get their hopes up multiple times every winter when it’s never that promising and then moan when it goes Pete Tong. People act as if the cautious people are causing warmer weather.

    Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Just now, Seasonality said:

    Yep, they play the odds every time cold is forecast and say it'll fail. Not a particularly insightful or clever prediction when the UK is involved, they moan about ramping snow and cold then indulge in their own ramping against it, and contribute nothing except trying to sow misery. Weird, why would you do that?

    Surely what is important is who is correct?

    Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Just now, Nizzer said:

    There is (regardless of what some say in this thread) a cold/very cold spell on the way. How cold/snowy is still to be seen. But coming into this thread, there seems to be loads of members preying for it to fail so they can play their 'told you so' bit. And then they have the audacity to complain about the members in the MOD thread when they themselves contribute f all to the site!

    Preying?

    no one wants it to be cold more than I do, but people shout you down as soon as you try to talk about being cautious...

    Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

    You know somethings afoot when you see people who've spent years screaming "it's always FI" and "don't believe the hype" are in full on ramp mode.

    It's seems odd to think there's millions of British people sat at home with no idea what's about to hit them, sitting prepping their spring garden, dusting off the motorbike, de-rusting the kids bikes and mowing their lawn.

    Or you know we're not far off being able to power the whole of the UK with hydroelectric power generated by the tears of cold rampers. I'm not going to lie, this is the best spell of cold weather I've seen modeled at such a short range, but it could still go pete tong.

    Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    16 minutes ago, snow freak said:

    it would just be our luck (again) that Greece and Africa get the bitter cold and snow.  You couldn't make this up if we tried.  We must be the unluckiest country in the world for cold and snow when even Greece and Africa get it and we don't.

     

    But he literally did make it up...

    Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, Tamara said:

    I quite often agree with your sort of sentiment, as I'm one who opts to look at the most likely solution to fit the signals rather than the preferred one:)

    But, equally impartially and with intended objectivity (hopefully):

    The situation at present is a highly unusual one and the risk of some astonishing late season wintry weather is much higher than usual, certainly than often seen in these cases where deep cold pool advection flirting with the UK graces the perimeters of more 'reliable' NWP

    The repercussions of this SSW are going to be sustained. The clock starting ticking back in January and carried on through this month with extreme instability of the atmospheric profile with the tropics and extra tropics being subjected to opposing high amplitude states of angular momentum tendency.

    gltend.sig.90day.gif

    The impact on tropospheric global wind-flows (the Jetstream) has been significant, in addition to the detonation of some intense cold pooling over the polar field (relative to the modern day generally warmer arctic) : more especially across the Canadian arctic as multiple programmes of hot needles are probed into the polar stratosphere

    The result of extreme tropical momentum and stratospheric implosion implies high impact weather events on a broad-scale. Some places are going to get bitterly cold and some weirdly warm. 

    In this day and age fewer parts of a hemisphere can get cold with less to go around than used to be the case maybe. But this programme of events strongly favours the European sector to become bitterly cold from what looks to be an impressively large breakaway cold pool for the time of year from Siberia. While its true that the envelope of this cold has boundaries that shift in intra suite modelling, the focus of the BI being impacted in inclusion, is much higher than other situations where lesser broad-scale drivers have been in evidence

    Ramping indeed requires a justification - I think this situation fits that criteria. Areas of land mass infrastructure most at risk aside from weather impacts, the synoptic blocking pattern and its associated reverse polarity from one side of the Northern Hemisphere to the other - is not something seen on an every day NWP menu:)

    And certainly now the signs are stronger, but how many times have we been in this situation only for a cold spell to get watered down or just flat out blow away?

    i want a few feet of snow, but I’ve been lurking on here long enough to know that it doesn’t always happen the way models say it will. Sometimes one model can be the only one that sees the truth, sometimes it can be just wrong, we’ll find out.

    • Like 2

    Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    14 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

    I will have to take you to task on this statement.

    The GFS and other models are also unwavering at the moment too, so your point is mute. People are not ignoring the ECM and its evolution at all.

    There have been numerous posts on here today to that effect.Please look at the charts people are posting backing up their opinions.

    GEM ensemble

    gens-0-1-216.png

    GFS ensemble sits well with control 

    gens-21-1-192.png

    Diagramme GEFS

    ECM not exactly the Elephant in the room ,more in its own ensembles

    EDM1-216.GIF?19-12

    image.thumb.png.9ef1d981f6d14b91fa3f1f31385d38f8.png

    Of course the ECM could be correct .

     

     

    What’s a mute point? I think you mean ‘moot’.

    How many times before have we had cross model support apart from the ECM, only for the ECM to come out on top?

    • Like 2

    Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Danielvn

    1 hour ago, Wizzobell said:

    Hi all, something of a long standing lurker who loves the learning and the knowledge demonstrated on this site but I must confess to being a little confused at the moment.

    The GFS is consistently showing remarkable runs yet the ECM 0z has backed away slightly with the hp a little further south. However, the GFS 6z is stellar once again. Here's the rub; I get the impression from recent posts that most people are starting to feel v confident in a likely cold/ v cold spell yet my understanding is that the ECM is generally more accurate and the GFS 6z is one of the more low resolution outputs. Does this not suggest that we should be more wary of the ECM trend?

    Enlightenment required please.

    People are ignoring the elephant in the room because it suits their agenda. Only a fool would ignore the ECM aid it’s showing one thing and the others are showing another thing, yet the ECM is unwavering in its view of what the weather is going to do. But rampers gonna ramp I guess.

    • Like 6
    • Thanks 1

    Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    12 minutes ago, knocker said:

    Hi Sawan

    I'm surplus to requirements in the MOD thread :) but I wouldn't be confident in favoring the evolution of any specific pattern given the fluidity of the upper air at the moment as slight variations can have significant impacts. If pushed I would lean towards the ecm but I have not got sound meteorological reasons for saying that. The way that model is indicating would I suspect be the better outcome for the chionophiles :shok:

    Imho you’re certainly not surplus to requirements. You’re the voice of reason and refrain from getting carried away like the model thread people who are just after likes.

    • Like 5
×
×
  • Create New...