inghams85

Exactly mate, North Yorkshire, Pennines, maybe at a squeeze South Yorkshire to bear the brunt. Rain by 12am in the midlands looking at the charts

Bad news on the updates warnings from the met office for some of you guys in the midlands. They now expect snow to turn to rain later in the night. I.E the further south of the wanring area the quicker it turns to rain

I think youll be just too far east Lee Sheffield will be on the edge of precipitation

All i can think is the higher resolution precipitation models the met are using are suggesting no snow without good elevation. I've never know them be at such odds with the models we can see at such short notice

The 18 was an excellent run for West and South Yorkshire! Time for changes but encouraging. Showing snow from 7 on Tuesday to Wednesday afternoon!

Those reports are all very surprising from the parameters I'd looked at and from the met comments on tonight. Sounds like actual conditions are just on our side based on what different members are reporting. Based on that it could be an interesting early hours/morning as the occluded front looks in good shape from the radar I can see developing

Don't forget guys about tonight and tomorrow (don't ramp too much) that no snow will settle unless you have elevation above 200metres

If we get the showery weekend and outlook and then the two potential disruptive slider events then I will be happy with that. What are you actually expecting a 4 week freeze?!?!

Evidence of mid term upgrades is all to see on the 06zp! As stated watch the scandinavian high trend further north on west as t-0 approaches upgrading the cold from the east!

Thanks for the kind words guys. I've been lurking for 15 years but im no expert, im certainly no meteorologist. What I have learnt is how the models work, there nuances, bias settings etc and have picked a good instinct up from being able to decipher a pattern going forward (maybe similar to TEITS, Steve Murr etc) Things still look on from this morning. What I will say is don't get too high or low from every model run from this point onwards because what will happen is the output will change the positioning of the scandinavian high and associated western european cold pool but what you would excpect to happen closer to time is for the scandinavian high to ridge further and further north and west which will only upgrade the easterlies going forward. The Stratospheric warming going forward could turn this from being a great cold spell to a VERY good cold spell with a bit of luck

Absolutely....... Your on the same page as me. Will be funny to watch the models consistently back away from zonal as FI coes into range. A known issue for most of the models in this situation and one Steve Murr has spent his life showing people on the forum

My forecast from 10 days ago of cold from the 28th is still playing out beautifually. Stage 1 - Snow from the fleeting Northerly (locations impossible to forecast as yet) Stage 2 - Uk high preserving the cold and snow Stage 3 - Scandinavian heights - Good to see the trend grow Stage 4 - The relocated Pv over in Canada to undercut the block as it sends energy south in the atlantic ***** For stage 4 its important to understand that no model has the ability to forecast the undercut from T-300 or even T-192.......so be patient once this stage hits the reliable watch the Scandinavian High send the jet stream and low pressures further and further south and under.... All FI is futile at the minute. Ignore the output

Im at work so cant post charts but yesterdays 12z's were worse. Heights to the North West were nowhere near as robust. Baby steps to synoptics shown 4 or 5 days ago. At T-96 i expect the chart for this day to look very good indeed!

Thats summed up excellently Nick. The 28th onwards is extremely interesting in my eyes

Yeah you are right mate theyre far better than us at reading between the forecasting lines. Im just saying as a bit of advice from experience and knowing how the met work long-term not to post long term charts and post lines that can come across a bit sweeping. The language used was as though because of the mean charts zonality was inevitable. It can be mis-leading. It really is not inevitable as the models dont know whats happening past 120 hours. Id concentrate no further than that, honestly. Read Tamaras excellent post above^^^^ for long term trends. Zonality isnt the form horse based on back ground signals. Youd expect models to slowly trend to a more blocked scenario, I think a poor signal was picked up yesterday. Amen to that GFS P!!! Merry christmas to that my friend!

All these models produce mean charts IDO but the pros dont use the mean charts from these models to produce a forecast. They study in FAR greater detail than that the individual runs and clusters. Then what happens is they look at the background signals that Tamara has just spoken about ^^^^^^^^^ and work out which of the clusters is the most likely. Don't get dragged in to thinking the means are as important as you think and most importantly dont post these to make novices think what they show is the most likely solution

I dont need to email the met office. Ian F came on a few days ago to explain they dont find the mean charts in the long term helpful and to explain how much of a waste of time they are that far out. The Met office use the clusters and study the trends of these and the percentages of the clusters over a 3 - 5 day period to forecast long range. That is the best way to forecast long range weather alongside and in tandem with the background state of the atmosphere. Essentially pairing up the expected state of the stratosphere, MJO etc and alongside the trend cluster finding the best fit. An ensemble mean is one of the very last tools they would use. To make certain assumptions using ensemble means is ludicris

IDO you can not make a forecast based on mean charts that far out!!! Naturally there will be several clusters and outcomes on the table and the thing to remember with the gfs p is the resolution it runs at at 192-240 hours. It can pick up a more likely trend within that timeframe which via the butterfly affect leads to a different outcome down the line. Other ensemble members run at a lower resolution cant. By all means use a mean chart if it is consistent with the ops and other models as a trend but with so much uncertainty even at 120 hours its outrageous to claim with any cetainty the forecast for 11 - 14 days based on a blended mean!!

As posted yesterday and this time last week - Cool down 28th onwards, North Easterly then Easterly. The changes i've seen this morning have only increased my confidence on this. Watch this space

I still stand by what I posted 2 - 3 days ago. The cold to dig in from the 28h and an evolution to North East and then Easterly winds. I expect the models to do what they do often. Back away and then bring the initial pattern back. Eventual sinking of the low and heights to build to the north east and the retrogression of these heights back to Greenland when the stratosphere warms

The thing is you state 'Another bite of the cherry should do it' before you know it another week ot two have passed' There hasn't even been a bite of the cherry yet. The anticipated spell is just after christmas and has always been touted as that. The cold charts showing prior to that were a surprise to those of us who could see the pattern panning out. Don't look at the christmas week projections as a failed attempt. It wasn't expected in the first place

The difference this time is a very cold spell has been forecast with background signals to happen around this time for a good few weeks. Christmas week was just a bonus on the charts and built around too much amplification and not on solid background signals. As has been stated many times buy Tamara etc this is the period we expect a very big cool down. Watch the charts build the consistent signal for an east based -NAO and also look to the second week of January for when the asian mountain torques adds further spice. Patience grasshopper

Peturbation 4 is what im expecting with the gradual shift east of the -NAO by Sunday/Monday on the models (along with the north easterly and then easterly following)

Absolutely! I think this is bang on the money. This pattern being modelled this far west at this stage is excellent news knowing how the models evolve

I agree completely, some of the best posters on this thread including Tamara and Chion have since the end of November said the real prolonged cold will be the beginning of January. The Christmas week teases were just a bonus and gave everyone something to ramp over but in all honesty this only was on display due to the models displaying far too much amplification over this period. The background drivers are only now coming together for the period spoken about for 3-4 weeks. The Greenland ridge wont be that far West. Im no meteorologist but from years of model watching you learn to read how an historical pattern will evolve. This pattern historically will be a good 300-500 miles further east putting us in the firing line. I think stage 2 is to see the low heights drop into western Europe and for a North Eastern and then Easterly pattern into January week 2