inghams85

I agree for you in East Yorkshire, but for South and West Yorkshire the parameters would see snow down to low levels

I agree for you in East Yorkshire, but for South and West Yorkshire the parameters would see snow down to low levels

The low moving south down the east coast for Friday night looks very very interest for Yorkshire. Could be an hammering for us from that

Was about to post the same thing. It's timing differences. I think the models have been too quick to bring in the cold. Always looked like East/North Easterlies longer term

Yeah we will! The angle is better on the 18z.

Its always been Week 2 in December that a proper colder spell has been forecast. It's still not in model view...why people have had end of November in there heads I honestly don't know!!

When did BA ever mention it would lead to mild? He said it would add uncertainty!! Haha! Very defensive strange comment

Me either! With the cold pool that's been in place this week it's not far fetched to expect 5-8cm to low ground east of the Pennines from Midnight until 8am. It's currently sleet where I am at 70metres. There will be snow in the heavy bursts I'm almost positive of it

Don't expect any falling or lying snow before 11pm at the earliest. Heavy precipitation and a South Easterly wind and associated DP's won't improve until then

As frozen would say "let it go" you only have to read every post of this thread to see how it's blatantly obvious the sea ice is in trouble this year. Even average conditions leaves us second lowest from today's base state and ice conditions

As the band in Scotland heads west and the slightly milder air with dew points around -1 come in the second band peps up between 9 and 10 until 3am

Agreed and what I have been sneak peaked on some hi-res charts. This is just a bonus

People shouldn't be panicking. This first band is an area of precipitation not forecast. The main band isn't due till after 10. The area in Scotland is due to pep up and head south, south east

Read muckas post on the model discussion thread. West Yorkshire is the sweet spot. Your out by about 50 miles in your head

Not according to the latest Euro 4. West and South Yorkshire is in the firing line for a period of heavy snow. For East Yorkshire it's time to shed some tears for Sunday and Monday I'm afraid

Yes it's a rare occasion where a model like this becomes very important. The public models won't show the solution until tomorrow. They don't have the right resolution when 50 mile differences make all the difference

The NAM, Arpege and other Hi-Res models all show the ECM and GFS have got this wrong. Before anyone asks yes I have been given a sneak peak but can't say how

I have been waiting but now feeing fairly confident on what I felt the background signals were telling me. As above I think I've called the dates and conditions fairly well. Time will tell

Theres snow chances and uppers from as early as T-144. We don't need minus 10 uppers to see good falling snow. Your expectations are way too high

One trend I've been monitoring for 5 to 6 runs is to our North East. That cold pool has been building and building closer. I think our cold pool will receive an injection from days 8 onwards which is where our real cold is coming from. I have a sneaky feeling via undercut under a west based NAO and an easterly dow the line...

The level of cold (850's) and longevity and strength of the Greenland block will only upgrade in the next 48 hours. The reason for this is the models are MASSIVELY underplaying the strength of the arctic high pressure. (GFS especially) An area models traditionally struggle with might I add. As the Arctic high is modelled correctly closer to T-0 watch this push colder 850's down the spine of the country from the troughing.

17th - 7th in 1983 Steve..... He's just pointing people in the direction of how that cold spell unfolded as an example of how this one might.

That's what's confusing because it is the start of the cold spell. Just not the start of the really cold spell. It's also not a topples because no mild air will come in. 11th - 16th (cold , -5,-6 uppers) possible snow showers, features, 16-20th (cold but dry to higher pressure) 20th - first week in feb (very cold spell with north easterly/ easterly winds as the NAO becomes more east based. This is where the confusion lies. CC is calling it a topples (no disrespect but but mild air has to arrive from the west to be classed as a classic toppler) and GP and Chiono's are rightly saying actually it's longer lasting as after the North Atlantic high and showers we have a cold high and then more brutal cold after

No that's true and has never at any point been forecast! I think people just like to twist forecasts to give them hope for when they wake up to the morning models or the afternoons after work lol GP, IF, The met, Tamara are the biggest clues longer term and all have them have consistently said the last week of the month. All next week is is temporary amplification from the MJO signal. The week after the AAM will be hitting levels never seen before in January (record breaking even) and can only lead to Greenland height rises at this time in the year and a very very very interesting end to the winter

Yay!!! Finally someone has talked sense. If posters care to read back 4 or 5 days GP forecast a cold spell between the 15 and 20th of November due to temporary amplification in the Atlantic and then a lengthy -NAO dominated cold spell from the 28th (of which he has brough forward to the 23/24th. None of the senior forecasters have forecast a severe spell next at any point. It's people seeing some of the more extreme runs and thinking this is the "torpedo" happening! It's not! It's merely a £20 rocket from Aldi until the real spell starts. As had been discussed the true cold Synoptics are not in view until Saturday at the earliest. Get a grip people