[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Lol . Up until yesterday morning it was looking pretty good next week for cold crisp weather . Now it’s a bit . Let’s give it another 10 days and see where we are . All the signs look good going forward. 

To be fair it was looking good. I honestly want cold as much as everyone else. Ive been there, as we all have, when we think its odds in then we have our hopes taken away by the models  

10 days time would be great, perfect for christmas. I still think mid-late Jan will be good for us (i dont get joy in saying that) but thats where all the indicators are pointing and thats not changed a great deal. 

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

On 26/11/2018 at 16:25, ICE COLD said:

Are u for real ? . Yes we’re gonna be in for some zonal for the next 10 days , but come on writing off the whole of December . I will quote your post in 10 days and I bet you it will look completely different to what we’re having now . See ya in ten days

Hi @icecold so 10 days is up........(banter btw before emotions run high)

My perspective still has not  changed. Still looking at mid to later January for anything significant and a SSW will be needed to help things along. 

Id also just like to make the point that im hunting for cold with you all but Im seeing at a slightly different time than most and that doesn't = trolling   

btw if people werent so snappy and bullish to jump on people with a different outlook to their own I would write more meaningful posts......... 

As I mentioned 10 days ago there would weak attempts and the odd transient cold period which I think is all we can expect this side of Christmas/New Year 

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

Patience is the key here.

It will come but we just need to bide our time. The way im looking at it is enjoy Christmas and the build up etc and then when the Christmas blues set in after new year the fun will begin in January with the pattern change and the models firming up with the change with consistency to lift our meteorological spirits

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

2 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Thanks. I am just trying to figure out where you are coming from.

So yes the bolded part does strongly suggest you were dismissing any idea of a pattern change does not?

You have to consider how seasoned posters are going to take that after they have just posted their thoughts on how and why they see a pattern change.

it seems dismissive and not based on any current model output for the period being discussed.

I don't think there has been any hostility toward you, just strong disagreement with that sentiment an dhow it was expressed.

As I said previously it is fine to put up seasonal models and longer range ideas on occasion but the meat and potatoes of this thread is analysis of the daily output with the understanding it chops and changes but attempting to pick the bones out of it.

Once we get blocking and the prospect of snow things become focused on shorter term still - just a natural progression for cold and snow lovers.

Posting seasonal model output for Jan Feb is not argument for how you see December.

The weather will and does make fools of anyone forecasting beyond a few days but there is still a lot of experience and skill that goes into interpreting the daily output.

Personally I still think we will see a pattern change which is what you seemed to be writing off - I could well be wrong but for now I believe the weight of evidence suggests that.

You have now elaborated upon your position to sate you consider any longevity of blocking will occur in second half of Winter and any blocking first half will be short lived which is welcome and hopefully you see how that is not contentious and people will not pull you up on it.

There is of course no need to apologise and I'm sure you weren't trying to upset people.

We are all weather enthusiasts here and as such a family, a family that squabbles a lot but still a family 

Look forward to your future thoughts.

 

 

I appreciate that and points well made.  

I don't think there will be a pattern change in December as such, not a lasting one, but my gut feeling is that it will start to take place after new year and set us up nicely. Unfortunately I don't really see much cold until then. I would love to be proved wrong though big time!

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

1 minute ago, Mucka said:

 

Unfortunately many posts have been deleted from yesterday so the contentious posts no longer remain.

I have absolutely no issue with what you have posted above or other posts that state any cold in December will be short lived, it is unusual to get sustained cold of more than a few days anyway in England.

If that was all you said yesterday then people would not of asked you to clarify.

What you are clarifying above is that you are going with the seasonal models for strong blocking later in Winter. 

It is fine to post them as evidence you see a blocked second half of Winter and predominantly zonal December based on those models but it isn't really day to day MO discussion since seasonal models tell us little about when or if a pattern change is going to happen or how our weather will look in a couple of weeks.

As for confusion, you seem somewhat confused as to what I asked you which was whether you thought we would see a pattern change or not in the time-frame specified and not whether you took seasonal models as gospel.

 

To be honest Im not here to make enemies - when I wrote the below post yesterday it was exactly in context with other discussions at the time such as blocking etc

"      On ‎26‎/‎11‎/‎2018 at 16:18, Shaftesbury Snow said:

GFS keeping things mild up to 144hrs

The pattern is unlikely to change until late January in my opinion based on all of the long range models and the fact that we are continuously chasing FI"

I definitely don't take long range models as gospel but I also observe sun spot predictions, look out for SSW, MJO and lots of other things. I think many others on here today are now following the idea of a pattern change (blocked and cold) into January.

Much of the talk on this thread has not been about day to day models and many have spoken about the bigger picture etc. No one else has been slated today for saying similar to me. Maybe they have better reputations and people don't want to offend them. My previous post to this is exactly what I said and I stand by that.

If you follow the day to day models for the hunt for cold it will drive you mad, I just look for tends and broader NH profiles and the day to day models have moved away from a blocking scenario at the moment going into December.

Anyway, apologies to any offence caused to anyone

 

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

35 minutes ago, Mucka said:

I'm a bit confused as to where you stand Shaftsburysnow, did you not call zonal through Dec yesterday and write off any pattern change? 

Today you seem to be saying that you favour a back-loaded Winter (Climatological norm) but we can't write off any cold in December?

Are you still writing off a pattern change based upon this mornings output or not? 

This mornings output was disappointing because it did not advance last nights improvements and trended more toward mid lat blocking than high lat blocking but that could easily go back the other way this afternoon and evening.

We are currently looking for a blocking pattern to establish as we head into 2nd week Dec, I think that still looks favourite but whether that results in cold and snow is another matter.

Personally I believe we will see a pattern change to blocking toward end 1st week Dec which will of course increase the chance of cold reaching us but by no means guarantee it, beyond that the current signals are for another zonal spell before the teleconnections work their magic later in Winter which would go against my idea we will get other blocking opportunities later in the month (Dec) but I certainly wouldn't ever be married to long range generalities either way.

I''m much more interested in looking for pattern changes and cold chances within the 2 week time-frame and even those can and do go pear-shaped.

 It will take more than a few dodgy runs before I wave the white flag (though we do need keep a white flag handy in this game)

 

Just to clarify again.

A back loaded winter means cold - blocked - snow in the second half of winter. I referred to a major pattern change going in to mid to late Jan onwards. I posted this morning charts to back this up...please take a look. I also called zonal up to 144hrs on yesterdays 12z GFS.

I definitely did not rule out any cold in December , however I did say any cold wont last long in December and would probably be transient and weak. There wont be the major patter change just yet though that will happen in January based on the attached. There will be attempts at it though as the NH profile is out of sync.

To anyone else who is referring to my posts please quote them as you will see they are quite different to what is being said.

Does this now make it clearer? I think you have also contradicted yourself there. Please quote where you think I said things and I will happily clear up any confusion  

The links - Canadian model from dec to feb and then JMA dec to feb

 

 

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

56 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

The other point for all of the doom mongers is that it's still late November - even if nothing comes up in the next 14 days we will only be 10% through winter. It'd be the equivalent of writing of summer because the first week of June was bad.

To be fair I don't think anyone has written off winter. I think many of us are hoping for the cold to come through quicker then actually will. In fact, March has actually been one of the snowiest months in recent winters, so there's still loads of time left

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

2 hours ago, Yarmy said:

Hi, Shaftesbury. I'm not sure that 3 snapshots from a single op run of the 4th-best performing model really indicates anything, but for what it's worth I'm not overly optimistic for December either (the first half more so). This is based on all the output out to 12 days or so. Beyond that there's a ton of scatter on the ens, but there are still a significant number showing high lat blocks and a negative AO:

https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=6&ech=300

So not an overwhelming signal for anything, but I've looked at hundreds of these GEFS panels over the years when they are showing nothing but 100% zonal out to 16 days. 

 

 

Hi Yarmy,

I totally agree and good point. It was more to show that these runs chop and change so much and we need to be looking at the broader patterns. Sorry if you have already seen it but I posted a couple of longer range models which show a back loaded winter (blocked pattern, Greenland High and undercutting lows bringing snow) which I think will be the case. The GFS does love the zonal pattern for sure. The high in the arctic is pretty much driving the models such as the GFS and ECM and with every different position they present that high that's when we see some exciting output, both the ECM and GFS are really struggling with it at the moment. Out of those two models I favour the ECMWF just from past experience as the GFS seems to follow this model rather than the other way round.  

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

1 minute ago, bradythemole said:

Interesting Ian F said also that MetOffice seasonal model MSLP was skewed by -NAO later into Jan and Feb. 

GFS 6z a good position at +192. Should be better run coming up again here.

I think it is more than likely going to be the case. Its quite unusual to get a prolonged cold period in December, that's not to say its not possible. Recent times we have seen that but most prolonged cold spells have started in Jan or just after Christmas. The NH is all out of sync so there will be all kinds of runs thrown up some look spectacular and some look terrible.

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

4 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Indeed SS. As Gavin's video showed, signals now suggest that a 'back-loaded' winter is more likely...

I think it is. There maybe some transient colder periods before then but the main pattern change will be in Jan. (based on longer range models...before I get kicked in the balls again)

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

11 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Pretty much chimes in with what GP posted last week.

Exactly - it makes more sense, its building now and the models will throw out a few runs trying to get there.

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

Below is the JMA long range model (Japanese Model) in order Dec-Feb and the Cansip (Canadian Model) in order Dec-Feb. Ill post some more later when I have time. Each one shows growing signal for blocking from mid Jan onwards and even stronger in Feb. The JMA shows a mid lat high pressure for December but that's for later on in the month and the Canadian clearly shows more zonal for December. There are more models to back this up!!

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

Correct me if I’m wrong, but are they not the same model.....

Hi Karlos, They are but just at differing time scales. Ill post some others now

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

Still no difference to the overall plan of this winter ACCORDING TO THE LONG RANGE CLIMATE MODELS and the current model output. Still looking mid to late Jan for the good stuff.

Disclaimer

These views are not expressed by myself, my emotion or an abreaction of over excitement. These views are based on different models and conditions currently being presented to us all.

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

1 minute ago, Snowman. said:

0z should defo be an interesting find tomorrow morning. However if the first chance is missed the next 'wave' of amplification would probably only be a few days later. As long as we keep that Arctic high we stand a chance, with that gone we would start getting real desperate. 

Absolutely, the arctic high is important. The models aren't losing it and have been consistent with it being there or there abouts. Then there's the potential strat warming which should hopefully help things along nicely. 

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

2 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

A potential spoiler low already is the one the ECM picked up on this evening between D6 and D7 that has already been discussed. The GFS has also picked up on it but surprisingly doesn't make much of it so the high just builds over the top of it but it is just another piece of the puzzle to watch out for tomorrow.

Good point. Personally I tend to trust the ECM in these situations. Probably will end up in the middle though. Definitely one to watch tomorrow

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

13 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Chill out mate . Was only saying it’s a bit silly writing of winter / pattern change until the end off January. The long range models are pretty dire if you ask me they chop and change every run . Yes the charts are not good at the min , but to say they won’t change to the end of jan is nuts .

I'm all good mate. To be honest the FI charts differ most of the time from run to run. The long range climate models do show broader patterns and normally not too bad. Not one has shown any blocking (that I've seen) this side of Christmas. The NH is primed I think for the new year. There maybe attempts now which may bring colder spells at times. But I think a stronger more permanent block will happen mid to late Jan into Feb. I can't be sure definitely not like everyone else we all have different opinions and I certainly don't think there won't be any cold around. 

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

8 minutes ago, Bobafet said:

But it would help if you showed some charts to back up what you are saying, all I have seen is comments which could be interpreted as a wind up.  It would help people like myself who struggle to interpret charts to see where you are coming from, and it could be that you are right.  Instead all that happens is the cold v mild arguments ensue, where as if you are able to provide charts to back up what you are saying then nobody can really have an issue!

 

FWIW I believe the models will suddenly start looking increasingly promising in the next few days as BFTP would put it #winterofdiscontent!

 

Sure thing

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Although its probably best not to though.

True. I meant no offence and everyone just went mad. I didn't even mention cold weather. I said according to long range models the major pattern change won't be until late Jan and so many mis quoted me tonight

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

1 hour ago, ICE COLD said:

Thing is tho he didn’t say that . He posted a comment saying that there would be no cold until the end of January . With nothing to back that up . The end of January is like 8/9 weeks away . So that’s why he got jumped on . No one can predict the weather for the next 2 months with any accuracy. Look for weather patterns /trends and even that doesn’t work sometimes. 

He as in me did back it up though. I said long range models!!! Plus where did i say there would be no cold? Quote me saying that!! I never said that not once So back off now I'm tired of people making rubbish up on here tonight

Now everyone else is saying it and actually not backing it up.

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

42 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Too far North too affect us in the near term - but still pressure the PV bit by bit - increasing through - Look high up in December - January the best bet for Northern blocking this winter.

Exactly what I said and what I was thinking......

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

8 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Late January?

More like late next week according to this GFS.

That's the problem we get caught up in FI and take it as gospel

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

7 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Are u for real ? . Yes we’re gonna be in for some zonal for the next 10 days , but come on writing off the whole of December . I will quote your post in 10 days and I bet you it will look completely different to what we’re having now . See ya in ten days

Gladly. Let's talk then.

Ten days ago it was let's wait until next week or we will see upgrades in 48-76 hours.....which didn't happen.

I'll post something later to keep you all happy with my fingers crossed and a wink saying "God that mild South westerly looks cold....we will be blanketed"

I think desperation and excited takes over logic sensibleness sometimes.

 

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

1 minute ago, Smiler1709 said:

Wow bold statement pal, the models flip and change more than my underpants. Things could look very different in the next 2 weeks. Long range signals 2 weeks ago showed northern blocking and a cold start to December. 

Not a bold statement at all. 

Long term models weren't showing that, IF I remember rightly it was only the GFS mainly and ECMWF didn't at all, which was hated for being accurate.

By pattern change I mean proper blocking etc not just transient notherlies. Can you suggest anything different short term  and why? Apart from all this background signal talk which guarantees nothing

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

GFS keeping things mild up to 144hrs

The pattern is unlikely to change until late January in my opinion based on all of the long range models and the fact that we are continuously chasing FI