Ventnor Viking
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Posts posted by Ventnor Viking
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Some sleetyness here in Niton Isle of Wight.
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3 hours ago, bluearmy said:
Sometimes …… at the moment I’d think of this analogy - Scott is thinking about putting his team together ……. It’s a very long way to the South Pole and he’s going to lose at the end anyway
I like that analogy! Its good to prepare to fall, softens the blow a little. I'll still secretly get excited behind closed doors for no reason and prepare family for a white out that will never happen. I'm a sucker for false hope, keeps the world spinning
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6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:
Now seeing the gfs introduce a second warming by day 16 as the earlier one fizzles somewhat, having displaced the vortex towards svaalbard. This is evident on a fair few gefs members. This has my interest as I recall some ssw splits in the past following this evolution. Repeated strong warmings, each one a little stronger than the last. The eps mean only goes to day 15. There is an indications that something is headed into the Asian sector from europe at that point in time but it’s going to need to be picked by the 46 later (which is possible as it will run off the back of this eps run) if we are to see today if the eps have seen the same second warming ahead.
Thanks for the update. On previous occasions has this usually led to cold conditions for the UK? Thanks
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I really want to be positive about the charts, but I reckon I could be along time for that if you are after cold and snow.
On the face of it, it looks mild with the 850's, especially for the Island. However the high pressure will produce frost and potential cooler ground temps by day.
FI I know, but towards the latter of GFS runs there is a slight hint of the HP trying to push north....clutching here though 🫣
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My highly technical analysis can be rounded up in to three words ....Mild and Miserable!
Have a great Christmas everyone
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I know a few aren't happy with the specifics of the output today, but I'm really quite pleased with what Id consider to be quite a significant change and dare I say some consistency cross model with the Northern Hemisphere profile.
The GFS has almost switched to the GEMs idea of quite strong northern blocking leading to arctic northerly winds leading up to Christmas. While down stream it doesn't look too significant for us on the current output, I feel that if we get that agreement again tomorrow for the s polar vortex to split and send it east to siberia, then over the next couple days our output could be something very different.
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The rain eventually turned to sleet and for a while snow, now just a few wet flakes falling here in Niton (IOW)
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3 minutes ago, Isleofwightsnowgal74 said:
Here in Shanklin it’s very sleety turning more wintry
Keeping everything crossed for you!
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Update!! Niton just saw a couple of blobs of sleet! Feeling rather festive now......
New update!! In the time I wrote this post its turned back to drizzle...lovely!
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My parents just outside of Poole just had 2 inches of snow, but here in Niton (the most southerly village on the IOW) just has cold rain and even the ice has melted. The sea temperatures really do matter in these knife edge scenarios.
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Its looking more likely now that there will be a break down of the cold next weekend. GFS going for Saturday and ECM going for later Sunday.
With these set ups there is usually some transient snow m4 south, especially the higher up you are with more of a significant snow event Midlands north and east.
I know things can still change, but its looking alot more and more likely then not to break down before Christmas.
Hopefully some will get some snow before then
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Good morning all,
One overall concern for me at this stage is lack of deep cold to our immediate north or even way out in the east.
This will make any block hard to sustain.
It will be an interesting watch to see how this plays out.
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Good morning all, the positioning of the low pressures are going to be vital as to to where the heavy snow or rain will be. It has been said quite a few times on here, but the sst are really going to prolong any precipitation, my initial thoughts based on the outputs are the Midlands north for snow and below that sleet and cold rain. And of course the Isle of Wight will probably just have autumnal weather
All in all, what a fascinating set up and we are only at the beginning of what could be a very cold January based ok the background signals.
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The M4 corridor is consistent boundary for cold and mild. Its incredible really how often it takes places close to it
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Good afternoon all,
All in all looking good, as mentioned a couple of days back there would be some flip flopping and then some quite quick alignment. For me personally now the alignment is taking place I'm now mainly paying attention to the NH profile for consistency. This is what will allow for the conditions to be more prolonged and colder.
I think it will be a very interesting time ahead for coldies and some cracking charts ahead into the weekend. For me here in Ventnor I will be excited to embrace the cold rain and merky conditions this winter
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This is crazy....
A good ECMWF and most people are talking about a historic winter.
A GFS not looking as good as the ECMWF and you would think its late March in here.
As emotions are running high with many tonight I will keep this post short. I will also just reiterate again that these are the foundation's for later on in the month and there will be many changes to the models and NH profile. Try not to get caught up on individual runs it looks to dangerous for some
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3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:
Not quite a big freeze at this stage Ali ….. it will certainly feel like winter whatever transpires - but I don’t like cold and wet !
Said it yesterday and I’ll repeat it again - the difference between the upgrade and existing are marginal. certainly not relevant to say ignore it. Without a notable improvement on the existing verification stats, you’d ask yourself what the point is but as I understand it, the upgrade is fairly small scale and hence they probably aren’t expecting much of a change in stats. I wonder if it’s offering anything notably better by day 7/10 ….
I think trying to produce consistency at the 7-10 day range has got to be up there with their eventual goals with regards to upgrades. I think sometimes with these upgrades its abit like updating your phone to newer versions to enable improvements at a more micro scale for the foreseeable.
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Good evening ladies and gents,
Overall a good run of minor upgrades re the northern hemisphere profile today, although the 18z is looking in technical terms all a bit "flabby and wobbly". But still pleased with todays output across the board.
Past experience tells me that we may well get some excellent upgrades in the coming days in quite a short time frame too.
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I must be one of the only ones that see's the 6z as an upgrade from yesterday....
A stronger HP and the evolution from east to west from this run then that of yesterdays, even the 0z. I can't post as on phone, but if you compare the 240hr from the 0z to 6z its a definitely an upgrade to cold.
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Morning all, firstly let's all keep emotions in check and remember its still only November
Firstly, still no sign of the Atlantic, which is massively important. Not one model showing this.
Secondly, imagine if there was an ugrade today, which there is every chance there could be, there would be pandemonium
lets all look after our healths here.
I'm of the opinion that there has been no run showing an Atlantic come back, not even as an outlier. Im certainly optimistic here knowing that these setups are very difficult for models to forecast. I'm not biased with regards to specific weather types as such, but I can see a good end to December here for cold lovers.
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The overall plus for today is still no Atlantic influence and the PV is continuing to look split/disrupted.
Its all about foundations at this stage. Its very rare to have long lasting cold modelled accurately. But all models are laying the foundations for alot of potential great set ups mid to late December.
Overall very happy this evening.
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I think its important to focus on the overall trends and pattern, rather the fine details such as the upper temps and precipitation, which have so many factors which can affect these. Therefore the models will not be able to determine with any real accuracy at such a range.
Overall very happy with the high level consistency into mid December
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Not looking too bad, the theme is there for HP to build from the east. I'd definitely like to see the GFS swing towards more the Para and would be good to see a similar run from the ECM this evening. Ive learnt from previous years that usually its a much watered-down version of the current charts, however after a scorching summer maybe nature needs to find some balance
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19 minutes ago, CreweCold said:
Some seriously impressive cold air knocking about the NH so early in the season.
This is great for Arctic sea ice gains, especially over the eastern side of the Arctic (Siberia way), where most ice loss has happened.
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Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted · Edited by Ventnor Viking
Usually the models flip flop between great looking and awful charts in these scenarios. The final outcome in previous years gone by is some form of mean version, so most probably some form of high pressure smack bang over the top of us, not really tapping into anything majorly cold, but will produce frosty mornings etc. Could be completely wrong here, but from past experience thats normally where it settles.