[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

6 hours ago, Shaftesbury Snow said:

As its only one run I'm not going to get to over excited. I have a feeling the 0z will bring us back down with a bump.

Nice to look at though.....

There's that bump

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

As its only one run I'm not going to get to over excited. I have a feeling the 0z will bring us back down with a bump.

Nice to look at though.....

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

I'm still struggling to see where any meaningful cold will come from.

I know we have all the background signals and so on but I cant see anything significant this side of Christmas.

I'm not trying to be cynical, but as long as a that high in Russia sits there we wont get any of the action.

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

8 minutes ago, The BEAST From The East said:

People keep saying how good the Russian high can be for us but I find all it seems to do every time is stalls the Atlantic weather somewhere over the UK and keeps us in the milder pattern... 

I'm only an amateur  but could someone explain to me how a Russian high can help to deliver cold to the UK please... 

I understand with a scandy High and a Greenland High and an Atlantic high lol but I can't remember seeing a Russian high bring us cold or snow although I do have a short term memory.... Sorry what did I say..

 

Its more of a case as to where the Russian high could lead to. If it retrogresses then it will become a Scandi or Greenland High.....most of the time.

It is correct in what you saying that if the Russian high stays put then it keeps us mild.

I personally think that our best chance of blocking is a high pushing up from the Atlantic and joining another......who knows though. We can have all the background signals in the world but it still means nothing unless we start to see some favourable pattern adjustments.  

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

55 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

All par for the course...

In advecting warmer air into the polar regions!..and-or scandi-blocking  align.

■-and with the strat becoming toasty @pacific/eurasian sector...its all gravy!

Agreed. How many times do we see a pattern change appear quickly within the models? Its very rare that a cold pattern is modelled well in advance.

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

53 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

newton

karma

law of averages

sods law!

 nothing I am seeing tells me that this is anything but a temporary blip in the blocked and amplified pattern ...... there has to be some mobility around the NH ........ it finds itself in the Atlantic sector for a period ......can’t see it lasting 

absolutely - a shift of energy is always needed for a pattern change.

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

I love how the UK has the only wedge of mild uppers in the northern hemisphere mid latitudes....you couldn't make it up lol

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

One of the main issues we are dealing with here is that we are relying on areas of energy to align accurately  after each run for us to find any kind of consistency or trend. If the LP's in the Atlantic slow or speed up or if the pieces or vortex are positioned differently in the Arctic then the models can vary drastically especially after day 5. That's why so many models have been inconsistent with each other. Even a shift of 150 -200 miles north or south makes a big difference to the output.

For me personally, Im looking for consistency up to the 5 day point between the models at this point before I look for trends past the day 5 point, which just aren't there yet.

It looks to me that due to the energy to the north of Scandinavia and the LP coming from the west the HP to the east will get squashed out as there is nowhere for it to build. This will be the best case for us and the quicker this happens the better. The reason for this is that it clears the Atlantic and that persistant HP just sat there blocking and feeding cold to central and south eastern Europe. Hopefully then SHOULD encourage heights to build over Greenland via the arctic as I feel this will be our place for blocking to begin rather than retrogression from scandi.

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

Morning-

Any atlantic motion looks short lived to me- on top of that the eastward progression looks limited as well-

ECM day 10 is the next route to cold with a vert deep upper air cold pool moving west!

Moring John ;)

It would be nice to see the LP's in the Atlantic head a bit further south in this scenario. As long as the high pressure just sits to our east the low pressures wont do anything fast or favourable for us. In this set up the cold pool wouldn't get anywhere past Germany.

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

I think the overall pattern has slightly improved to day and has been less progressive with the Atlantic. I am expecting to see an upgrade of sorts from GFS 6Z and the GFS and ECM 12z from a coldies perspective. 

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

2 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

UKMO looking ok with the trough disruption just a little further south than GFS at T144hrs.

It is the weakening of heights further north which is now creating an interesting borderline setup over the coming weekend with that colder air lurking just to our north.

The evolution from there i think hinges somewhat on another ridge building into NE Canada.If this inflates further east into Greenland than currently shown on GFS then we will see that cold air coming down towards the UK and the jet going further south than shown in later GFS.

 

.

An interesting an important point about the heights over Canada. I think in order to see a decent trough over western Europe we need to see heights rising towards Canada or for the HP to shift much further west. Unfortunately the low pressure in the Atlantic is preventing that from happening and therefore is allowing for more energy to build in western to north western Greenland in the later stages of the run.

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

Just now, Nick F said:

… of course, there is always the danger of the high/block drifting too far west to our north, into NE Canada, which allows the Atlantic trough to merge with low heights to the NE and allowing low pressure to be pulled NE across the UK - as per 06z GFS.

This is actually where I see things going to be honest.

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

Just now, Steve Murr said:

Whos John lol !

Nothings 100% assured this winter however we should be as confident as we ever could be for 18/19

haha sorry John, I mean Steve lol Its still early.......somewhere  

I agree - that sort of statement suits me!

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

36 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Im not sure what your expecting to be honest-

The cold this week is going to land exactly how its been forecast for the last 5-6 days with some 'limited' opportunity for snow over the hills & maybe some lower levels-

The picture then changes to one of sightly less cold followed by more opportunity from the E/NE

What your getting caught up in is the macro detail but missing the total big picture - which is about the blocking & the positioning relative to the time of year- 

Scandi > Iceland > Scandi is almost the inverse of the norm.

If you was 'expecting' loads of deep cold & snow just yet then you need to lower your expectations just for a short while - 

The window is only just opening for cold from the east, but that window gets larger over the next fortnight & continues for 12 weeks after that- whereby slack continental flows will readily turn rain to snow- where as at the moment its very much borderline being that its 2 weeks to early-

So whilst it might be slightly frustrating this early on its the bigger picture that should give us confidence around whats about to occur this winter...

I understand where your thinking is with the overall picture. However, its made out like its guaranteed and I'm just trying to point out that its really not and I think some level headedness would be refreshing, that's what I'm expecting.

Just to make the point I'm certainly not digging at anyone, far from it. I wasn't expecting deep cold at all, in fact I posted about week ago when the "big block" was forecasted and clearly stated it wouldn't happen and why. I'm not bias towards any type of weather I'm just an all round enthusiast with a science background. I don't think Im missing any bigger picture here im fully aware of the NH profile and that's here I have been focusing. The current areas of energy is not allowing for a block to establish at the moment and that's my point.

I appreciate your time to respond John. I think we are looking at things a little differently here in terms of perspective and expectations.

Lets hope things do happen, my unbiased opinion is not before Christmas though.

 

 

 

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

47 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Thats only if you take the poor GFS suite at face value - which many do on here.

Weather Enthusiast - follows models & interpretes what they show

Weather forecaster - All of the above however additionally makes independent decisions based on experiences & known model bias / weaknesses !!

Anyway... UKMO 168 - strong ENE flow across the uk, a sliding shallow low & ridge trying to build north in the gap

Agreed - so surely experience tells us the models and virtually all models, that we mere mortals can see, have very quickly lost the idea of a significant cold spell.

Its nice to think that the models are playing games and will give everyone what they want but we cant forecast something that is not there. Yes, we can sit here and say "yes it will cold in December" but surely given the odds that's bound to happen given that its winter....its frustrating reading continuous posts of "it will happen" or "or so close" or "look for the upgrades in the next run".

I would love snow, of course, but at the same time it would be great to see level headed posts....rant over!

 

 

 

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

desperate times when everyones hi 5ing 360 hrs lol

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

the runs keep getting milder. We need to remember just because the NH profile is out of sync it doesn't mean we will get cold.

  

[Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold]

16 hours ago, Shaftesbury Snow said:

There obviously will be some blocking, but I have a feeling that  we may start to see little by little downgrades and the GFS falling in line with ECMWF. there appears to be too much energy in Canada for the block to take a decent hold in the early stages which I think may be a theme going forward,

Unfortunately this was pretty clear yesterday and even late Wednesay in to Thursday. I think everyone gets over excited and then desperately disappointed. I'm glad both GFS and ECMWF are aligning now which will help for more accurate trends going forward. Looking at blocking synoptics so far ahead, anything past 144, is not great. Except 2010, most blocks start to develop and show strength not beyond 144ish, of course there will be hints past this. 

 

[Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold]

15 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Look where that energy is heading though - It's going NE up the Western side of Greenland or as some used to call it, the "corridor of death" for low pressure systems

That's the issue. It tilts and blocks the HP to less favourable position and sends more of a s/e wind. We need the energy heading south it enhances the block and produces higher heights.

[Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold]

4 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

No we want the energy going up/staying on the western side of Greenland with Atlantic not having a look-in.  There is nothing bad about the ECM...It just isn’t as clean early enough but would get us very cold

 

BFTP

I understand your point. My concern is that if there is to much energy there then it will push the HP back instead of establishing over Greenland. Ideally we would want the energy to forced south of the high sending milder air to enhance the block.

At this moment the regression is looking less smooth and a little more wobblier. The ECMWF could get us to cold but it wouldn't take much for that to go wrong. I'm not getting to excited yet as I have a hunch about this. I hope you are all right though

[Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold]

There obviously will be some blocking, but I have a feeling that  we may start to see little by little downgrades and the GFS falling in line with ECMWF. there appears to be too much energy in Canada for the block to take a decent hold in the early stages which I think may be a theme going forward,

[Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold]

1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

Snow widely across Europe as we start winter

Compare that was Dec 1st 2017

I love how Dorset is completely snowless lol

[Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold]

I know this is just one run, but what strikes me is the distinct lack of energy in the Atlantic and to our north west. This is a classic set up for wave after wave of snow and occasional blizzards. The atmosphere would be unstable enough at times for troughs to form at short notice to.

That said, I think we would be looking at a much toned down version of this run in reality but its eye candy at its best so just making the most of it.   

[Model output discussion - winter proper underway]

1 minute ago, Paul_1978 said:

No, the bold bits of the blog were updated this morning.

Anyway, I think the point is its an opinion. With the current model set up, and this is for all of them, it would be near on impossible to build heights to our east or north east with so much energy heading that way next week. 

[Model output discussion - winter proper underway]

30 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

Whilst watching the model output in the next few days, it would be worth bearing in mind John Hammond's updated Blog, updated sections in bold published this morning. 

https://weathertrending.com/2017/12/08/on-the-horizon/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

Although an interesting blog, it was from 4 day ago I think. The models are showing a less cold trend now. Is this personal or professional experience he's stating. It''s a bit of straw clutches I think and I could say experience tells me I think at some point it will get cold this winter. This is no way a dig at you in anyway at all ?. I just think realistically the way the high pressure is setting up to our southwest and the way pv is setting up I think we could be in for a flattish zonal period after next week and personal experience tell me not to try and guess anything after that ?