[Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16]

I know its madness to even talk the FI but just a few more frames on and we would be looking at one huge undercut to the HP to our east. I still favour a crazy 18z display tonight before GFS realises its been a little off today and goes back to something a little more reasonable

[Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

All a bit of a mess....

From this, you'd think an easterly was likely with the troughing advecting the cold air under the block eventually. However, as we've heard from bluearmy earlier today, this idea is not even on the table as far as the EC goes

Certainly is a bit of a mess with this run. I don't see a cold easterly forming either to be honest maybe a slack flow in the mid term not to be to technical but it all looks a bit flabby on this run. Something tells me the 18z will be produce a complete outlier with stunning charts which will be on the coldest end of the ensembles then should hopefully go back to something a bit more realistic on the 0z run producing a MLB block.

[Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16]

This is by far a more complicated pattern on the GFS 12z. More energy placed over Greenland @ 216h than there was on 06z run. I would be very surprised to see a strong block form in FI with this run tbh (note that does not mean a block of sorts wont form

[Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16]

3 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

Looks like Sunday's low is more or less nailed on now in terms and strength and its general positioning. could well be a miserable day for those on the East coast with heavy rain and gale force Northerly winds!

The secondary low is still more uncertain, would rather this was further East so we get the lighter NW'ly drift which will bring clearer chillier air which could lead to clear cold conditions at night if the high does topple in.

What happens after that is anyone's guess, the GFS FI's charts don't interest me but the potential for a trough to drop down into Scandi with some cold air does and whilst things remain messy over in the North Atlantic then who knows what could happen although again I will remain skeptical about Greenland highs via ridging until much closer to the time.

Im more inclined to go with the Greenland block. There is too much energy/cold air coming in to Scandinavia for any height rises to maintain its self there. Saying that though its tricky to say where the cold trough will feature.  

[Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16]

12 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Arpege shows the chance of some snow in the south on Monday night

That would be great for me in Shaftesbury.

Im sure you all know this anyway but don't get caught up in the specifics of the runs being shown, that is irrelevant at this stage. Its much more important to see the broader pattern and the displacement of the cold to the north that appears now to be heading south. Each run the specifics change bit its the pattern  that's key - take this weekends low pressure for example still not 100% sure how powerful it will be or where its path will end up.

For now the models are improving with regards to HLB and with the sea temps being still fairly warm and the cold air coming south who knows what kind of systems that will produce at short notice - something the models cant forecast right now! all in all excellent broader pattern forming

[Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16]

nice to see some cold upper temps appearing back in Scandinavia at 216h  

[Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16]

at 186h there is a trough pushing down from the arctic pushing cold air south will be very interesting to see how far this pushes down!

 

[Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16]

 

1 minute ago, karyo said:

Why would tracking west cause a strengthening of the jet?

I would expect a track east/northeast would strenghten the jet.

sorry I meant to say track east to northeast - good spot!

[Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16]

6 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

It's also worth mentioning that there a high chance of a tropical depression forming in the Caribbean in the next 5 days (80% likely according to latest forecasts)

 http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

Another ingredient to throw into the melting pot.
 

This could be good or bad for us.....the good outcome would be the storm tracks upto the arctic and pumps warmer air in the arctic therefore strengthens the blocking or it could track west and strengthen the jet therefore displacing any early blocking!

defiantly one to watch!  

[Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16]

Overall im happier with the 06z GFS. The HP over Greenland isn't really moving and the HP in Russia appears at this stage to be retrogressing towards the Greenland HP. Also interestingly a couple of lows towards the channel keep the jet over or just below Spain  . Anything past around 180h is irrelevant at this stage the short term pattern is absolutely key here!   

definitely looking to see an upgrade on 12h GFS, its tricky for the all the models to forecast when the atmosphere is so out of sync with years gone by (due to a number of factors like sun spot activity etc).  

[Model Output Discussion; into 2015]

There appears to be a lot of forecasting for FI charts which is fine but don't take it literally just call it as you see it don't bank on it......Up to a reasonable time frame 144hh it appears to be looking as we were this morning with HP to the south east keeping things cool and frosty up to that point.

 

Although not guaranteed there after I think the atlantic will push through and sink the high to the south east allowing the jet to slowly sink south. I think it will remain cool and probably just below average for the first half January with a potential for wintry precipitation at times to the north west, west (west to higherground) and higher parts of wales . I don't foresee a mild atlantic bombardment........this isn't taken from the 12z this is an observation of the NH pattern.

[Model Output Discussion; into 2015]

Afternoon all, have just observed the latest operational runs for the week:

 

Monday to Wednesday:

 

 days look to be clear and fine with cirus clouds aplenty and looks to be frosty for all overnight, except the far southwest, with some of the frost reluctant to lift the further north and east you are and of course over the high ground where there is also a possibility of some freezing fog. There is a risk of quite severe frosts making conditions quite treacherous on the roads. 

 

Temps during the day can be expected between 2-5c widely and 7-9c in the far south west. Over night temps will drop off very quickly and will see temps fall between -1c to - 4c widely and would expect to see locally a -5-7c in the country side away from coasts and the further north and east you are.

 

The Far north west of Scotland may see the odd shower, wintry over the higher ground, however these will be light and isolated. Where showers do form here and clears it will be come very icy.  

 

Thursday and Friday:

 

as the Atlantic try's to push back in you can expect to see temps try to rise widely 4-8c during the day with fronts trying to push in any precipitation will be mainly light and patchy as it comes through. in any clearer spells at night its will be expected 1-3c. One thing to note is that that as the Atlantic does try to push in the air behind is still cool to cold so expect to see wintry precipitation over high ground to the north and north west.

 

The position of the high is key to temps and moisture which will effect our temps and cloud cover drastically. Im very reluctant to put any confidence in forecast beyond 5 days.

[Southwest and Central Southern England - Weather Chat]

shower has just cleared now....

[Southwest and Central Southern England - Weather Chat]

Its sleet/wet snow in Shaftesbury, Dorset now. Current temp 2.1c between huge flakes and wet sleety snow.