Connor Bailey Degnan

Make no bones about it, UKMO is absolutely shocking and a complete bust for Christmas and beyond. Time for change but not the direction we want to be heading.

Ecm delivers very heavy snow for the North and East for the big day.

Morning all. Conflicting signals this morning once more, with extreme differences amongst the main models and their ensembles just a week out. Sadly, as with most chases, the Milder options now seem to be outweighing the colder ones. All hope is not lost, however, if things are to go in our favour around the big day itself we do need some consistency between the gfs/gem/ukmo and ecm and sadly that hasn't been happening. Major differences run by run add to the tension in this group and makes model watching more infuriating than ever. What I would say is, keep the glass half full, things aren't over just yet but a knife in the back for sure. Come on 12z!!

So where do we find ourselves this morning at the prospects for Christmas? Still no clue whatsoever. There are so many different solutions being thrown up and the 6z and Ecm are so far apart, it's ridiculous. So atm you could say, it might be a really cold and snowy Christmas but it might be really mild and wet. Both seem sensible enough to say atm. Key word "uncertainty."

Sadly going in the wrong direction imo. Gfs ens are pretty rotten around christmas with a big chunk of them actually bringing the Atlantic back in. Gem poor too. Need a big ecm or gonna be some toys thrown in here I think.

First time I've posted in here for a long time; been enjoying reading others thoughts and expectations of the upcoming winter. Personally, I feel we are in a good place going forward with wintry nirvana eventually paying us a visit. Models are a bit all over the place atm to get a real sense of direction heading into the festive period, however, the overall theme seems to be one of cold and frosty weather at the very least. I would expect the real cold weather to arrive around the new year, but perhaps a taste of things to come over Christmas. Fingers crossed everyone and let's enjoy the ride.

Some snow on the ground here in Market Rasen, Lincs. Only 25m above sea level. Just shows that surprises can pop up anywhere:)

I was originally sceptical about this winter, I thought it would be a case of deja-vu. However, the last 2 weeks of watching the models has really interested me. We are at solar minimum, Nao and Ao going pretty negative along with an Average December which is always a good sign The coming week will be slightly colder than average, along with a showery theme of weather. Snow surprises could just about pop up anywhere, so now casting is definitely key. However, for me, the main core of proper cold weather, ie from the east, with substantial falls of snow, will be from the second week of January. !

Overall, the best output since that of February 2018. Granted, it's no where the near the nirvana produced then and people should accept that. The risk of wintry precipitation, whether it be sleet or snow, is on the rise, especially post Christmas. A small chance of something wintry affecting Eastern coasts - Christmas eve into Christmas day which needs watching! After such a dreadful year, I, and the majority in here will be happy with the overall output going forward. Merry Christmas all

Ao majorly negative! Good signs going forwards towards Christmas and new year.

Severe flooding in Market Rasen Yesterday

Worryingly stronger and upgraded for Sunday. This is absolutely brutal. 80 to 90mph for many inland areas of the midlands and north. 80 across the south, in places like London.

Boom!

4.3c please

Just watched the Met Office Live today and makes grim viewing for the potential warming. Now expected to be relatively minor, with little affect, and a return to a strong vortex by late December.

I'd say the best GFS Ens yet for a Cold spell. Some very special ones in there indeed. Think the op might be a mild outlier.

Gfs and ecm, 216 I'd say snap!!! :)..

Ecm at 144 ;))

The winner for the most bonkers winter gfs ensemble member of all time??

Some absolutely outstanding ens tonight packed with potential. Take a look at this

I think the point hes making is that unsettled starts to November are good for a cold winter? 2009/2010 very cold 2012/2013 cold

Just for a laugh, and it's based on 18z GFS, this is the raw data for my location on Friday, bonkers. Low ground Lincolnshire. Of course it will change, but certainly seems to be some trend towards a spell of sleet/snow for some on friday

Wow this could be an astounding 12z Gfs, winter comes early? ;))

I was at the Grimsby Town game last night and I've never witnessed anything quite like it. Frequent lightning and thunder, biblical rain, extreme wind gusts and hailstones. It really was like the end of the world

UKV 15z has 39c as far North as Scunthorpe In Lincolnshire. Absolutely crazy !