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Everything posted by Connor Bailey Degnan
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Model output discussion - into 2018
Connor Bailey Degnan replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Looking through the ens for next week, quite a lot of them deliver.. esp north. -
Model output discussion - into 2018
Connor Bailey Degnan replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Not too bad at all, mean consistently at or around -5 for some time, in London. Some decent zonality may just be around the corner, then who knows, the easterly we crave so badly may come at the end of the month -
Model output discussion - into 2018
Connor Bailey Degnan replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn
Connor Bailey Degnan replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Agree, completely. North western areas look prime spot for snow showers. Then, as the winds turn more northerly, Northern and eastern areas are prime spots -
Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn
Connor Bailey Degnan replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Great news,We have the big three on board now Bad news is the Gem/Jma and icon are not good at all. I'd love it if we could get all on board. Obviously you'd favour the big three but nothing like a nagging feeling in the back of your head. Edit.. after looking again, the jma ain't too bad. -
Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn
Connor Bailey Degnan replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn
Connor Bailey Degnan replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
All in all, a good day for coldies. Ukm at 144 the pick of the bunch, looking forward to seeing the 168 chart. Great support from the gefs next week for a potent northerly.. snow chances aplenty. In the short term, those in the east, like me, should very much look forward to tomorrow!! -
Model Output Discussion 01/09/17
Connor Bailey Degnan replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Significant snow event north of the low this weekend? Certainly possible. If the gfs and ukmo 12z came off disruptive snow on higher ground in the north. Thereafter, frequent snow showers piling into more northern and western regions. Encouraging signs. Happy coldie here. -
Model Output Discussion 01/09/17
Connor Bailey Degnan replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
18z looking good. -
Model Output Discussion 01/09/17
Connor Bailey Degnan replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion 01/09/17
Connor Bailey Degnan replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion 01/09/17
Connor Bailey Degnan replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Well, what a mess. Still all to play for although i do get that sickening feeling that the 'oh so familiar' westerlies will dart across us next week. Gfs op is awful, a few but not many decent ens- although the ens do tend to follow the op. Ecm could go either way but that's probably our best shot at cold. Ukmo is okay at 144hrs and could produce something decent going through next week. Gem back to it's usual zonal pattern. We should get a better idea by 12z runs tomorrow. :). -
Model Output Discussion 01/09/17
Connor Bailey Degnan replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion 01/09/17
Connor Bailey Degnan replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion 01/09/17
Connor Bailey Degnan replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Imo the most crucial set of 12z runs of season so far. Lets hope they all come on board for us coldies and make this forum a very happy place later this evening.. -
Model Output Discussion 01/09/17
Connor Bailey Degnan replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Is this finally the winter we've been craving so badly ???? -
Model Output Discussion 01/09/17
Connor Bailey Degnan replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Wow that screams huge potential for a classic end of nov snowy spell. Let's hope it comes off. -
Model Output Discussion 01/09/17
Connor Bailey Degnan replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion 01/09/17
Connor Bailey Degnan replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Here again for another winter rollercoaster ride. Always much more livelier on here during the winter months,look forward to reading everyone's views and I'll share mine aswell -
Hurricane Ophelia
Connor Bailey Degnan replied to Jo Farrow's topic in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide
I'm here in Cork, travelled for the storm. Safe to say, Its very eerie. We've been advised not go out after 9am. Will try and get some good videos from the hotel window. -
Hurricane Ophelia
Connor Bailey Degnan replied to Jo Farrow's topic in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide
Me and my good friend are flying out to Cork on sunday. Looking to get some great videos. Will share my experience later next week. -
Well, cross model agreement on it Turning much milder next week, what an awful winter it has been for the Met. Anyway, in the short term, some good news, a 4-5 day cold spell. Some snow around, areas prone, Eastern Scotland and North East England, although many places could see something come Saturday and Sunday. Some moderation from the north sea may spoil the party nearer to the coast. Enjoy the cold