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Connor Bailey Degnan

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Everything posted by Connor Bailey Degnan

  1. Connor Bailey Degnan
    If anything, the ecm and gfs 6z prolong the heat, uppers in the south between 19 and 23c. Utterly ridiculous. 35c is being suggested 2 days in a row across parts of Southern England... add 2-3c on, the all time record is seriously is danger of being broken. Extreme, violent storms could pop up just about anywhere. This is a summer version of the bfte. Extremely exciting for us weather geeks. Hold on tight, it's gonna be a bumpy ride
  2. Connor Bailey Degnan
    Euro 4, by 6pm Tuesday some parts already have 50-100mm of rain. East Yorks, Lincolnshire, parts of Kent, North Wales and Some parts of SW England. Going to be some big flooding issues I'd imagine.
  3. Connor Bailey Degnan
    Yep anything significant just circulates around us Unfortunately, it’s been the case for years, bfte was exceptional last winter but apart from that, nothing of that much interest since 2013
  4. Connor Bailey Degnan
    I’m looking forward to an easterly at the end of April
  5. Connor Bailey Degnan
    To summarise, no one on planet earth knows what’s happening past about Monday with any certainty. Upgrades, then downgrades. I wouldn’t get to run down on the any model run currently. The weather will do what the weather wants. And right now it’s cold, there’s been some snow in some parts and it’s remaining cold for the next 5 days Atleast. Winter is here
  6. Connor Bailey Degnan
    Icon, awful start to the day :/.
  7. Connor Bailey Degnan
    Euro 4 for Thursday, some surprises coming I think. Several cm possible in some lucky eastern counties.
  8. Connor Bailey Degnan
    Very consistent mean from gfs and ecm at 144!
  9. Connor Bailey Degnan
    Slowly getting there, will take the gfs op a couple more runs maybe. Will be interesting to see how many ensembles have moved towards the ECM too. Look how different the 12z is vs 18z. Winter is coming! Never rated the gfs anyway
  10. Connor Bailey Degnan
    Anyone here in the north of the UK, say north midlands northwards, with high altitude, go and get your sledges ready everywhere else, surprises could crop up almost anywhere
  11. Connor Bailey Degnan
    If you live above 300m in northern UK next week, you could well be buried. Think Buxton... wouldn’t rule out a foot. Elsewhere snow is possible even to lower levels at times, major storm being forecast on the 12z op. Whatever happens it’s looking a lot more interesting than what’s been on offer so far this winter. Chin up coldies
  12. Connor Bailey Degnan
    I would much rather see the gfs and gem evolution than this ecm. Very cold it may be, but incredibly slack and very boring. edit: much improved at 216.. did not expect that evolution at all if honest but happy with it
  13. Connor Bailey Degnan
    Ecm so far is just very cold, looks completely dry.
  14. Connor Bailey Degnan
    Not such a good para this morning, has to Be said. Let’s hope it’s a rogue run. Eyes down for the ecm now
  15. Connor Bailey Degnan
    Looking through the gefs, quite a decent set going for a 2013 style easterly. Only 1 member I saw going for true northern blocking, but you don’t always need that for the best snow events. Hints of a revival in temperatures towards the end, but that’s just fi all in all, a good start to the day
  16. Connor Bailey Degnan
    I think it’s safe to say, those in the north will be satisfied with a polar maritime feed, those in the south not so. Given how this winter has gone so far, I think we need a NE/E flow to make everyone happy. Looking at the EC46, A NE/E flow should be popping up more often on the gfs and it’s ens in the coming days. We shall see.
  17. Connor Bailey Degnan
    Not a great gfs op fi this morning, oh well, ens should show a better picture. Great from the UKMO and GEM and icon. Now onto the ec.
  18. Connor Bailey Degnan
    Liking p3, just for fun, feb1979 anyone?
  19. Connor Bailey Degnan
    Got to laugh at the 12z, near misses and cold just circulating around the UK while most of Europe is plastered
  20. Connor Bailey Degnan
    So far the most boring winter possible, it just seems like we keep constantly being taken up the garden path in the NWP. Let’s hope our fortune changes and fast. icon is very good but no support!!
  21. Connor Bailey Degnan
    2 major things for me which give major doubt *exceptionally mild December: Usually going back through the CET archive, January’s and February’s following a very mild December rarely deliver. *Westerly Qbo: January’s with a westerly qbo tend to be mild, or (not snowy). However, despite this, there is still some scope for optimism... we haven’t seen the affects of the recent ssw yet come into the models... and we have very low flux.
  22. Connor Bailey Degnan
    Looking at this on Saturday from basically all the short ranges, either they all have the 850hpa wrong or it’s freezing rain. Very confusing... maybe an expert can give insight on this. It can’t possibly snow above 0c at 5000ft, so this is highly confusing
  23. Connor Bailey Degnan
    Ec46 looks very promising tonight, and the strat looks very toasty, what’s not to like.
  24. Connor Bailey Degnan
    Saturdays system becoming increasingly difficult to predict, going to be a case of nowcasting I think. Arpege for example brings more a more widespread risk into the midlands but the euro 4, ultimately, confines the snow north of the Humber, whatever happens we have our first “snow event” of the winter with plenty of interest Christmas onwards. Happy times for us coldies. Merry Christmas everyone!!
  25. Connor Bailey Degnan
    Any information on the ec46?
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