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Met didn’t get the memo about all this cold weather in their February outlook issued today…

I'm probably having a different experience to you down here...we've had a very sunny January here, which makes a huge difference.

I see we're back to cherry picking the coldest GFS ensemble members at day 15 to show promise Literally no point in posting that when you've got this chart at the same timeframe at the total opposite end of the ensemble spectrum. Latest MetO thoughts for the second half of February: Monday 13 Feb - Monday 27 Feb While uncertain, a continuation of the regional divide between the north and south is expected as the broad theme for this period. Unsettled conditions are more likely to dominate in the north while the south remains settled and drier. A spell of more widely spread wet and windy weather is likely to persist for several days across all areas, although wettest conditions will focus in the west. Temperatures are most likely to remain around average or above.' There simply isn't a signal for anything substantially cold at the moment. That could change going forward of course.

Lovely to see some noticeable daylight again at 7:30am. Once we are out of January I feel much better about things, it's just the worst month of the year without doubt. Light until nearly 5pm, I can forget about the depressing levels of darkness of November-January for another another 9 months now, hurrah!

First half of February is a write off. Only leaves us 2 weeks of winter 'proper' and then whatever meteorological spring can throw at us.

It is also an unsettled outlier. There are runs still having pressure at 1040mb by day 10, so plenty of more amplified solutions still on offer.

ECM 240 is the classic +NAO winter chart. Ridge western USA, trough eastern USA, big thermal gradient and supercharged jet stream powering across the UK. Yuck.

It's looking like the Atlantic westerlies are going to come back with a vengeance as we go into the first week of February. Pressure falling, rainfall spikes increasing. Potentially stormy too depending on where the high/low pressure systems end up.

Could be as soon as a months time! Unlikely as that was exceptional, but the longer days will soon be up on us. Only just over 5 weeks left of official winter.

Major incident declared due to Somerset flood risk WWW.BBC.CO.UK The Environment Agency says the move is "precautionary" but enhanced flood water pumping has started. I suspect the people of Somerset will completely disagree with you on this one! Any more rain after last week would have been catastrophic. It's bad enough there as it is! This dry spell has come at the right time.

It's in all time high territory...

What a lovely sight this is....not even fussed now if it's not overly sunny. Just a break from the rain will do me fine.

Colder....and eventually drier too, hopefully. A nice week or two of high pressure would be most welcome by most of the country now after all this rain.

Look at these two. That 240 chart is a wishy-washy chart with a small blob of colder air that would just get mixed out. Going back to 2018 and you actually had an unmodified proper cold pool sourced all the way back into the polar regions to tap into.

Exactly....the day 10 ECM chart might look nice, but by then all of the cold air has gone....good luck getting a beast out of that.

How odd - I had the exact same conversation about this last week! I started my university studies in 2003. Music that was out then is now 20 years old, but doesn't really feel like it. In 2003, music 20 years previous to that was 1983, and at the time that just seemed ancient and not even the same world to me. Perception of time certainly changes as you age! I miss those old BBC forecasts a lot. I would have been 8 then, but I still remember them pretty clearly. Rob McElwee should never have left the BBC.

Laughable really isn't it. There isn't a water shortage. The UK always has and always will have the rain coming back with a vengeance.

Another rancid day across the UK, with a huge blanket of persistent rain covering most of the country. Relentless.

Had that (near enough) in summer 2021 here. Was bloody horrible. NW parts had a lovely summer, and the SE was rancid. One of the very few times we get a NW/SE split, but not in the way you'd expect!

This 8-14 day 500mb plot certainly looks a lot colder than milder...

Really fed up with the incessant rain now. Everything is soaked. Don't even care for the cold weather, but a nice SSW to disrupt the PV and de-rail the Atlantic freight train would be most welcome now. Even if it means going cold.

Yep, this is true. February benefits from the lengthening days and more solar input than Dec/Jan too. Need some very strong, dry and warm anticyclones to get warm weather in winter without a SW feed. This was the day in 2019 that saw 21c. Exceptional set up with 850s in excess of 10c. I remember being outside in a T shirt and it felt more like May or June.

You can't really get excessively mild weather in winter without it being unsettled sadly. Mild temperatures always associated with W/SW'erly winds, which bring cloud and rain along with them. I'd just like a break from the rain now. Everything is sopping wet. From a selfish IMBY point of view, 3 of my local golf courses are water logged, which prevents me playing! Just a couple of weeks to dry off would be great. Doesn't look like coming any time soon though.

I don't like it when these lazy lines come out with no evidence to back it up. This is the Met forecast extended forecast from the 2nd December. Looks pretty spot on to me for the very cold spell that fell within that period. At that range they couldn't possible have forecast the small feature that clipped the SE on the 11/12th which brought all of the snowfall. Thursday 8 Dec - Saturday 17 Dec It will likely continue to be cold with further showers for much of the UK, which will fall as sleet and snow across the north leading to some accumulations of snow across higher ground, showers falling as rain or sleet more likely in parts of the south. Away from coasts there will likely be a good deal of fine and dry weather with sunny spells at times in the south, but with some sharp overnight frosts expected. There is a small chance that some less cold weather and rain could push up into the extreme south later on in the forecast period. On balance, however temperatures remaining cold or very cold everywhere in the UK throughout.

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