[Model output discussion - 20th Feb onwards]

Looking distinctly cool with a massive Greenland block setting up again on the ECM run today. Disappointing really, a few days ago it was shown as being eroded, now its back as super strength!
Looks like frosty nights and cool days on offer. Not too much rain around, with low pressure centred over Scandinavia instead.

[Model output discussion - 20th Feb onwards]

Big differences this morning.....GFS and UKMO on one side keeping things cool and unsettled with low pressure in charge. ECM builds in high pressure instead - the difference at 144 hours are quite stark. I guess we will have a better idea later on!

[Model output discussion - 20th Feb onwards]

I think everyone is just a bit disenfranchised with things at the moment! It's just so distinctly bland and average that nobody can think of much to say. Nothing much has changed this morning in that the 7-10 day period will be dominated by low pressure anchored to the SW.

[Model output discussion - 20th Feb onwards]

Both GFS and ECM firming up this morning on the idea of heights lowering over greenland in the 7-10 day period. Pressure patterns look quite slack there after, which could lead to a whole range of outcomes.

[Model output discussion - 20th Feb onwards]

I think the lack of discussion on here speaks volumes....

What an utterly horrible set-up we've landed in. Massive southerly tracking jet, low pressure sat over the UK, and us stuck on the cold side of things. All the while most of the winter was the absolute opposite, with everyone hoping for something like this. Couldn't make it up really. Looks like half of April is pretty much in the dustbin as rainy and unsettled. I'll come back in a few days when things might look a bit better!

[Model output discussion - 20th Feb onwards]

I was going to say the same.....a potentially nasty low looking to slam into the UK for bank holiday according to ECM! GFS doesn't show anything like as bad, but I guess it will all depend on how the low gets scooped up by the jet stream nearer the time. One to keep a beady eye on!

[Model output discussion - 20th Feb onwards]

Just sneaking in under the radar....Saturday afternoon is potentially looking very mild ahead of the rain band, with temps in the east up to 15/16c. I feel we deserve a mild day after the last 7-10 days of mainly leaden skies and a cold easterly!



 

[Model output discussion - 20th Feb onwards]

What I will say, is that the models haven't handled this upcoming situation very well.....a few days ago, a zonal Atlantic steam train didn't look likely at all, now it's in full on default mode! 

[Model output discussion - 20th Feb onwards]

Still some very subtle changes around this morning which mean the difference between cold/cool/showery/wet or even a little milder. All options are still available, and ensembles show a range of outcomes. I guess by Sunday we should have a good idea as it gets within the 5 day range. Personally I'd like something a bit milder, as here in the east most of the days under this high have been fairly grim, cold and with a nagging easterly breeze!

[Model output discussion - 20th Feb onwards]

ECM ramps up a northerly this morning, with some quite cold uppers below -5 cutting across the UK. GFS doesn't favour this scenario, with the OP and mean hovering either side of 0, which would just lead to average conditions.

Alex Deakin on BBC mentioned last night that much hinges on the big low that's going to spin up across the states with the warm/cold clash of air masses. The extent of this will determine the position and amplification of the jet. It would appear that ECM favours the more amplified situation, with the low pressure on the side of the block sliding down across the UK more extensively.

[Model output discussion - 20th Feb onwards]

ECM certainly moving well away from that particular option this morning, turning milder again by D9/10, temps towards the low/mid teens...

[Model output discussion - 20th Feb onwards]

Undoubtedly looking pretty cloudy for the most part of the week, could be especially disappointing in my neck of the woods with that nagging easterly all week. At least it'll be dry and not overly windy! Think the GFS has gone a bit mad in FI this morning too.

[Model output discussion - 20th Feb onwards]

Looks like we have a split opinion here - 6z showing what could happen if it turns cold, while the 12z shows what could happen if it stays mild. That said, with a high sat slap bang over the UK for that long it could cause an inversion and turn cool/cold after a few days. Wait and see what the ECM shows us later!

[Model output discussion - 20th Feb onwards]

[Model output discussion - 20th Feb onwards]

Indeed, as expected the GFS operational was a massive outlier, and the coldest run of the bunch - the bulk of members still going for the milder upper air holding out here, before gradually trending colder (rather than a huge initial blast of cold). One to keep an eye on, but for the moment it appears this has a low-ish probability.

[Model output discussion - 20th Feb onwards]

All depends where that high ends up...the 16-17c on the ecm a couple of nights ago had it anchored more to the east with southerly winds. As it's currently shown, 11-14c looks more likely with the high sat over the uk. It's still too early in the year for high pressure alone to deliver some warmth!

[Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter]

I can also report a rip-roaring success of a winter here, with a massive ZERO snow days, and a few chilly mornings! Just get this next 5 days over with, and build me in that azores high for some spring sunshine! I'm well and truly done with this godforsaken 'winter' now!

[Model output discussion - 20th Feb onwards]

Some nice settled spring-like charts are starting to appear at days 9-10 now....

 

Should be looking at a nice cool start, with temps recovering up to mid-teens by day there. Can't remember when we had a nice settled period under a dominant anticyclone, feels like an age ago!

[Model Output Discussions 18z 31/01/2016]

....and here's something for the spring and summer watchers:

There's a bit of a heatwave across the SW states at present. The 20c isotherm makes an appearance into Arizona, Texas and New Mexico! Temps over 90f have been recorded already. Won't be long before we're swapping searching for the holy -10 winter 850s to looking for the 15-20c summer 850s!

[Model Output Discussions 18z 31/01/2016]

ECM shifts the core of the trough back nearer to Iceland by day 10, but were still left with a mobile pattern of wind and rain. We're now out to the 20th and beyond with nothing really cold in sight, so we're left with about 2-3 weeks tops to grab anything now. Looking like we're just about in last chance saloon.

[Model Output Discussions 18z 31/01/2016]

Here's the chart to view:

[Model Output Discussions 18z 31/01/2016]

The ECM looks unbelievable in the NE states....imagine what the weather nuts over the pond are chatting about after seeing 850s there down to -28c!!!!!! Incredible. More of the same over our side. Cold rain, and not much hope either.

[Model Output Discussions 18z 31/01/2016]

Until that massive block to the east dissipates somewhat, there isn't anywhere for all these low pressures to go....so we rinse and repeat. The fat lady is clearing her throat as we speak...

[Model Output Discussions 18z 31/01/2016]

Either way, more tragically bad output this morning, with nothing but more wind and cold rain on offer. Nothing much more to add really, disappointing all round.

[Model Output Discussions 18z 31/01/2016]

Looks ruddy awful really, I think people that were trying to look for positives that weren't really there in the medium term.....everything pointed to unsettled being the dominant force for some time still. Nothing has changed sadly. Hoping for some dry weather to show up, I'm certainly getting sick of this incessant wind and rain now!