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mb018538

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Posts posted by mb018538

    Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Poor 6z again, a small coldish blast is replaced by yet more SW mush. Real cold ends up in the Balkans again. How can it be that we have a rampant jet and no blocking in December leading to the awful mildness we had.....then we get a massive arctic high, Greenland high, AO and NAO all in our favour.....yet still potentially end up with the same cack weather. Just doesn't seem fair at all!

    • Like 3

    Model output discussions pm 31/12/15

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    I get what Steve says here wrt teleconnections and making a long range forecast - in that the further away you move from the start point, the greater the unknowns, and the more messy the picture becomes. Almost to the point where the forecast isn't valuable. The massive El Nino this year at least gave everyone a head start for the first half of winter, an it panned out how most thought it would, albeit on an extreme level with the warmest and wettest month ever recorded here, and similar things happening in the east of the USA. I'm certainly looking forward to what's ahead for winter part II, it sure as heck isn't going to be like the first half!

    • Like 1

    Model output discussions pm 31/12/15

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    For my tuppence worth (which isn't worth much I know!) I'd say the ECM tonight is one of the better runs this winter. If only for the fact that some actual cold air is covering the UK in a fairly reliable timeframe! We haven't seen much of that have we! Sure it's nothing exceptional, but it would certainly result in some the white stuff covering parts of the UK.

    • Like 4

    Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Before we know it we are going to be in mid january, and only have about 6 decent weeks left to salvage anything from this train wreck of a winter so far! Come on weather gods, give us a break. I've got this sinking feeling that everything in 10 days time is going to start to revert back to something like we had in December. Hoping to be proved so very wrong.

    Model output discussions pm 31/12/15

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    I think it's more the realistic view? The ensembles never veered to agreement on a cold shot, it was always odd runs showing it, whereas the bulk showed what we're going to end up with - chilly cyclonic conditions with lots of wind and more rain. The stuff of nightmares if truth be told! Hopefully this colder air should hold less moisture, and if we're lucky we can avoid scenes like we've seen his last month in the north.

    • Like 2

    Model output discussions pm 31/12/15

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    I think Santa must have delivered a job lot of rose tinted specs this Xmas reading some of the stuff on here!

    disappointing all round I'd say. The cold pool looks like retreating and being bottled back up north both here and in the states. Blame that big El Niño monster for this tripe! Even with a shift in pressure pattern we still end up on losing side :-(

    • Like 4

    Model output discussion - 1st December onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, PerfectStorm said:

    Since model watching from 2006, I can't remember the last time I saw such boring model output. 

    I guess it's boring in a sense that it's not what you'd expect for December....but on the flip side, any potential record breaking month isn't boring to me! Hopefully this month will smash the record, and nicely in time for the start of January the Atlantic steamroller will run out of gas and the synoptics will change. GFS has been quite strong and consistent in showing a pattern change around the months end. All eyes peeled!

    • Like 1

    Model output discussion - 1st December onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    ECM 12z is one big mild-fest....not as unsettled as the GFS, and winds much more from a WSW quadrant keeping temps well above. John Hammond has mentioned there could be record breaking temps later this week, and the CET looks like being up at around 9.5c by the 20th still. Incredible, and providing no cold shots appear at the months end, this is going to be possibly the most record shattering month we've ever seen. Astounding.

    Model output discussion - 1st December onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Looking mild right out for the next week, before some colder shots digging in behind the low pressure areas interspersed with the mildness again.

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs120sum.gif

    Rainfall     totals out to 120 hours up to 50mm in the NW areas that don't need it, 10-20mm in the drier east. Could turn a lot wetter in the period after though as the jet intensifies and takes a more direct hit over the UK. Potentially worrying times in the NW once again, which is most sad.

    • Like 2
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