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12z delivers nothing of note again...on to the next day for another crumb to cling on to. Wet and windy very much the order of the day.

ECM 12z keeps the trough over and around the UK right out to the 10th. Doesn't look like much sign of a pressure build for us at present, with the huge ridge from Baja California up to the north pole, massive trough across the Midwest, big ridge off the eastern seaboard....leaving us in the next trough along the line. Something is going to need to give this pattern a mighty big boot to break it up. Up until the middle of feb almost certainly looks like dead water now.

Doesn't seem to matter if the eastern USA is cold or mild, we get shafted either way with absolute dross! nothing exciting again this morning, gfs builds heights right out at the end of the run, but this is about as much use as an inflatable dartboard. Probably be gone on the 6z. Rubbish all round, cold wet and very windy.

In the mid term, the models are strongly hinting at a major storm system blowing up Thursday into Saturday. On Thursday, it's a small low of 990mb....by the same time Friday it has dropped to 965mb....so technically a bomb, before another low is absorbe into the circulation Saturday, and it deepens to 960mb. When you see this jet stream, with a nice trough in to aid cyclogenesis, it's not surprising. Could be the next named storm system for sure.

Great....we've managed to trade mild and zonal for cold and zonal instead! Maybe a bit of wintry stuff further north through the middle of next week, but down south it looks like 5-6c, cold wet and windy. Eurgh! Kudos to GFS really, I think it's probably handled this better than the other big two. UKMO last night had a 1030mb high moving in at 14 hours, that's been well and truly blasted today. Going by this, some worryingly high rainfall amounts in the 6 day timeframe yet again. The southern and eastern areas can probably manage with a soaking this time as it's not been overly wet down here, but I can see 60-75mm forecast there again for Cumbria and the border regions of Scotland. We could be seeing December scenes all over again soon....

You'd think that a bit of snow over higher ground constitutes a decent winter for some people! Let's be honest, even in the most awful winters, snow over higher ground nearly always happens....zonal weather nearly always has cold sectors which are conducive to this. As for lower levels? Well we can but hope that yesterdays stonking ECM run finds some support somewhere. It doesn't look too likely at the moment, but then again the last 'cold' spell a couple of weeks back sort of appeared from nowhere too.

6z seems to be coming round to the ECM pattern....but quickly flattens out and goes back to a rocket powered jet, with everything flat as a pancake. Could we be seeing another split in the models? GFS v ECM/UKMO again?

John Hammond on the BBC extended outlook last night also suggested there are hints of a colder change around mid month. Maybe we're seeing the first few building blocks being cemented down this morning. ECM especially looks a peach! SSW could also help to slow the Atlantic train down.

The main driver behind that cold pool was the relentless cold being poured into that region all winter last year! It was almost non stop! According to NOAA there were 900 minimum temperature records broken in that winter. Pretty phenomenal stuff and certainly having a big cooling effect on the Atlantic region.

Welcome mr wonka. Sometimes I do ponder to myself that even a stopped clock is right twice a day..... I like the eternal optimism that springs on here. In the UK the game is always to look for the next window of opportunity, even though 90% of the time we know the default mild crud will dominate. It's what makes this place, and the UK climate in general, so exciting!

Autumn and winter tend to be more stormy with tighter thermal gradients as everything cools down.....so spring does tend to favour more higher pressure patterns than say Oct/Nov, coupled with a weakening vortex at the pole. 6z carries on the cool/mild/cool/mild rinse and repeat pattern right out until 384. No solace in this run at least.....on to the broader range of the 12z for some more crumbs to feed on.

Nothing much to add this morning, other than it looks drab out until 240 again with alternating mild and cold interludes from a westerly quadrant. Looks like we've only got 3 weeks of winter left to salvage anything!

Longer term GFS again hinting at high pressure starting to dominate.....though we've been here before. What's to say another steamroller low comes off the eastern seaboard and wreaks havoc with everything further down the line. I'd take a period of dry weather though!

Very quiet here which can only mean one thing.....depressingly bad charts! Nothing much to add today, looking poor for the next 10 days at least. We really are approaching crunch time here. If nothing starts to appear in the long term by the time we're into the first week of February, you can start writing the obituaries for winter 15/16. One that will be remembered....but for the wrong reasons!

I don't think it has made fools really....most people expected a mild to very mild winter, and that's what we've ended up with!

This is true, but all that happens is the cold pool gets shunted out from Canada into the Atlantic, and leaves this massive temperature gradient Result is a strong zonal jet again. By 240 the eastern half of the usa is warmer, but the jet is established, and the strong jet streak is nearer to the Uk

Well here is the 12z GFS ensemble: The OP was one of the mildest and driest members today - read into that what you will. I'd wager that the bulk of the colder members are just cold PM zonal shots rather than anything decent...though they do at least look a tad drier than they did yesterday. Is the scatter just a flip flopping of zonal mild/cold/mild/cold conditions prevailing? As fergie said above, the US storm looks like firing a huge temperature gradient into higher latitudes and really firing the jet.

With El Niño contributing to our mild wet pattern, the same thing has been happening in the Pacific NW of the USA most of the winter. Tedious for sure.

Absolutely. With such a repetitive pattern, our neck of the woods has been pelted with rain, while the east has been slap bang under the euro high for months on end. 12z is quite different to the 6z later on, but the 0-10 day period looks pretty unsettled.

http://m.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/lack-of-wind-storms-continues-united-kingdom-winter/54872370 brave of accuweather to say there will be a complete lack of windstorms through the remainder of winter, especially looking at the last day or two output!

Well we had 4 days around 3/4c and a few frosts here. Great wintry weather! unfortunately in the mid term things look awful this morning, which is kind of what I've been expecting the last few days. 10 more days of winter chalked off, looks like we're now clinging to the small crumbs offered in FI once again. It's getting towards do or die time for winter 15/16.

Well as it gets into the higher resolution, I very much doubt that it will now flip on all 3 big models and develop a large anticyclone! Rainfall spikes are starting to show on the ensembles too. Its certainly not December, but as I said, a watered down version for now. Every day here for the next 10 days is forecast to reach 10c or above. I wouldn't say that's far off!! It's miles above average!

Sorry, but I think all of the models have handled this hideously badly. A few days ago we were looking at a nice dry spell with a large high slapped over or very near to us. At least this was going to dry things out... Well today we have been left with: An awful, flat, powerful & zonal W-E jet, plenty of low pressure, wind and rain. Close to 100mm of rain in the next 6 days across Cumbria again. Tearing my hair out! It's like a diet version of December!!

Still quite a spread on the 6z ensembles....problem is now there aren't really any cold members at all. A few hovering around -5, but nothing seriously cold at all. Looks like we're down to 4 good weeks left to salvage anything from this winter!

I'd say mild is pretty much nailed on now until February at least. Everything seems to have sunk back towards the status quo.