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I'm fairly certain that wouldn't result in an easterly at all. It's still a small possibility (as shown by the 6z and a very small few ensemble members), but that ECM OP run tonight is just mild and unsettled right out until day 10. One for the rubbish bin I'm afraid.

It might just be me....but are the runs starting to look a bit more unsettled again? I'm sure a couple of days ago both the GFS and ECM were showing a strong high build over the UK, now we have a shallow low crossing the UK, as well as interference from other low pressure areas. Looking quite wet again to me, especially in the NW where 70mm+ is forecast in the next 6 days!

The vast majority of 6z ensembles are still on the mild side. A few cold ones on there, but we obviously need more support as time goes by!

Feeling slightly less optimistic after seeing tonights output. It may not what seemed like forever in December, but the mid term outlook looks very similar with mild air and the NW/SE split setting in again.

At the moment I would favour mild....though if it plonks itself over the top of us then of course we could have inversions setting up and the like. ECM is pretty poor, but is only one run - the ECM ensemble may paint a better picture!

The GFS 12z ensemble looks good for the start of our next chapter - a few really cold members emerging again. Let's hope they start to pick up on something as we move nearer the time!

Looks like a high pressure build from 144 onwards. Hopefully something nice will show up again fairly soon, as by the time this next week passes us by, we're only going to have 5 decent winter weeks to get stuck into before the longer days start eroding the cold pool away. A nice thought for my anyway, that spring doesn't seem too far off now!

That chart above obviously comes with a massive disclaimer! Still looking likely we're going to see a spell of above average temps again for a while....after that who knows. Doesn't look like going full on turbo jet like December, so we're already one ste ahead in that regard!

To be fair it is much harder to judge the UKMO as it only runs out to 144 hours. I would say it has moved towards the GFS slightly, but then the GFS has hardly been stellar itself has it? It merely shows how uncertain this spell of weather has been! What I would say from my own perspective, is that it has been a bit disappointing in the fact that when it first started to be modelled over a week ago, everything looked so good. Massive heights up north, AO off the charts, ensembles all clustered very cold.....in reality it's been a few chilly (though by no means really cold) days, a little bit of frost and that's it. Days haven't been below 3/4c here, which isn't much off what you'd expect for January anyway. Maybe the mushy mild December has tempered everything.

I can't see us tapping into any cold either....when the Atlantic eventually wins out it will kick that cold all the way back out to Russia and beyond!

To further illustrate the madness:

How amazing to have a hurricane in January! I think it's only the 4th time on record it's happened? No wonder none of the models can handle this. BBC think that Alex will be absorbed into the general pattern and give the jet that shot of energy it needs to break through and turn things unsettled....though this is of course still very uncertain. Absolutely fascinating, and such a welcome break from Decembers tedious model watching of T+infinity showing wind and rain ad nauseum !

Still a lot of model divergence this morning - heck, even the GFS ensembles start to spread badly after less than 3 days, which is most unusual, and shows how tricky this set up is. UKMO still out on it's own (slightly) building a large high over the UK. ECM and GFS flatten everything out and return us to a December mild fest.

Ukmo still out on a limb slightly, ecm falls back towards the gfs in building a high and flattening things back out towards a SW flow. Staying pretty cold right throughout though, some harsh frosts to come!

Looks good to me! Granted this cold spell probably won't go down in the pantheon of truly memorable winter weather, it's a decent attack of cold air after the warmest December and biggest CET departure on record. Much welcomed!

Yes looking great this morning for a slightly more prolonged cold attack.....though with the azores high finally pushing back in. As is usual wit these cold spells, everything is just being slowed down and held back a tad! The mild incursion is still out at day 8-10, just as it has been for the last 2-3 days!

I think the whole forum is pinning its hope on the UKMO and Steve's unbounded optimism! It's either a big win for the ECM/GFS or a cataclysmic win for the UKMO if it ends up being right. Something has to give, they can't both be right!

At least if we do see a return to the dreaded SW'erlies in the near future, it appears we will be closer to the high pressure this time so it should prevent things being as disastrously wet as they were through December. Looks like we're pinning our hope on the UKMO being right, as the others don't want to play (snow)ball!

However cold the UKMO output looks, the BBC don't seem too hyped....only really mentioning some higher level snow with a few flakes at lower levels. Nothing about any substantial snow at lower levels......yet. ECM and GFS both keen for the SW gunk to start reappearing at day 8 onwards, hoping that they are a bit progressive and that things don't move quite as quickly.

I would agree, I watched the 6z evolution and chuckled a bit. It's a bit like I don't know what's going to happen, so lets just explode the Atlantic and wind up the depressions again! As you say, so very different to the UKMO and ECM runs that I would totally disregard it and wait for the 12z for a better idea.

I'd say quite possibly looking at this chart: Most of the consensus at around day to is for low pressure to start filling the polar region again, with a big trough over Iceland and Greenland, and high pressure back to it's usual position over the south. High pressure locked away over Siberia for the time being again perhaps.

I meant W-E in the orientation of the general flow pattern, though with a HP bias rather than low pressure dominant. Here in Cambridge we're often too far inland for anything substantial snow wise unless it's a major low pressure truckload of snow!

I quite like the look of how things are lining up. Looks as if we're going to get a cold shot, followed by a cold high.....eventually everything swinging back to a more W-E flow, though by that time there could be an inversion under the high and it stays cold anyway. Looks like more eastern half of the UK may even fare best for a change!

I would absolutely love an easterly to follow that ECM chart at 264 and 288 hours! More likely is that cold to dissipate over the near continent as low pressure encroaches from the west. More disappointingly on those 12z ensembles it's now the cold runs that are in the minority, with milder in the majority.

Sadistic chart of the day goes to the ECM: Almost all of the USA and a massive portion of Europe chucked into the deep freeze....the only place in the bulge of slightly warmer uppers is the UK AGAIN. Couldn't make it up really. There are also no polar or greenland heights left at all by 240....I mean what has happened in 2 daysto go from some charts showing an AO off the scale to this. So disappointing.