mb018538

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif Some truly remarkable output this morning, with the chance of something really exceptional shown here. A feed all the way from North Africa in parts of the SE. Would anyone like to hazard a guess at some temperatures if this verifies??! 16-17c perhaps?? The month is already 5c over average, and this is just getting crazy now!

Let's be honest here, the models have been teasing a cold blast in FI for the last 2 weeks! As the time has drawn closer, it's not got any closer!

Well winter official starts tomorrow! I'd say we have until mid-march for some real biting cold weather.....so around 14 weeks. Pity that the charts show nothing of the sort for the first two weeks of December, so let's put a big red X through 2/14 weeks and hope that the tentative signs of a pattern change mid month bare some fruit. All eyes on ECM!

Well the 6z shows high pressure moving in at around 200 hours, and staying put right out through 384 hours. Slightly strange to see an Azores High coming in with pressure up around 1045mb at times I must say.... http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3121.gif

Definite signs of a correction this morning - as in yesterdays rampantly mild outlook has been pegged back a bit, with a stronger trough influence, with the HP further away back in Europe. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn18015.gif Very strong jet streak over the UK there, so any weather systems will whistle through quickly! What are peoples thoughts on the progression from this set up....chances of a cold interlude looking quite low at the moment with a massive +ve NAO?

Those charts are a load of tosh really - I'd be surprised if we had snow anywhee other than over high ground, and even then not a vast amount. It's not going to be that cold!

The models don't suggest a SW dominated month ahead - they suggest a predominant W/SW flow for the 7-10 day period, after that anything could happen! As it is I still don't mind this set up, as I believe we are still a good 3 weeks away from the start of the optimum period for cold. Much as summer doesn't usually have much oomph in late may/early june....winter doesn't tend to pack much of a punch in late november/early december!

In fact by 180 hours there isn't really any cold air anywhere across Europe or the USa and Canada!? 850s up near 5c at the start of December! http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rhavn1802.gif

The longer range GFS and ECM look exceptionally mild this morning. Something along the lines of what we experienced through the first half of november! http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/ecmpanel1.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/ecmpanel2.gif Can we have some more cold please!!

Looking decidely average for the time being, with a strong jet meandering between NW/SW influenced weather. Windy with heavy rain at times, though also with drier interludes. Perhaps a slight bias towards more milder than colder weather, though nothing much in it.

Just slightly reverting back to this weekends cold blast....does anyone know why the tmax forecast charts on the models are so badly wrong? They were constantly showing maxes of 2-3c here for saturday, which I just didn't buy at all. Yes it's a northerly, yes 850s are between -5 and -10....but it is still only late November! I just couldn't see it being that cold. In late Jan/Feb, by all means. BBC have shown 5-7c widely in the SE, which is much more what I was expecting from the given set up. Any reason at all??

Back to more of a normal looking set up after all the high pressure and mild air of Autumn so far. Trough set up right around the UK, with HP surrounding it. LP spins and regenerates in the trough, it'll need a big boot from somewhere to move it along....or we could be with this set up a while!

ECM is classic zonal - mild, followed by NW'erlies, followed by mild. The 240 chart actually has 850s up around 7c again in places, which would mean temps well into double figures once more. I think it's safe to say the models aren't handling the breakdown of the cold too well, and changes to this will end up in lots of different outcomes afterwards

Looks chilly on that chart for sure! I'd be very surprised if we only got to 1/2c here (Cambridge) on Sunday....I'd wager 4 or 5c is more likely. Either way it's still darned cold for mid to late november! Looking forward to what's coming after all these storms!

Still not looking desperately unsettled - as in the storm track is still clipping the NW rather than ploughing through....ECM doesn't bring the 0c isotherm in until 240 hours out. Either way, it's flattening out.

Looks like the block is finally caving in and the jet has come roaring back into action. Thing is, we'll be into the second week of November without any major zonality and storms, which is mad really. Some divergence about what happens after, but again looks like a typical NW/SE split. staying generally mild for the time being!

GFS 6z shows the block holding firm - though as others have said hints at something a bit more mobile by day 10. In the meanwhile, the first week of November looks exceptionally mild. The lack of storm activity through autumn this year is most unusual!

Absolutely - I'd much rather have this now than chilly rank days! In another 4-5 weeks we will have some cooler air to tap into and hopefully have a winterspell with some bite. I for one will certainly enjoy these days of 16-19c down here!

We've managed to squeeze a 20c at Charlwood today. The synoptics look as good (if not a tad better) for the coming days, so who knows where we could end up! ECM at 120 has the potential to deliver a slightly highertemperature than today.

I think we could squeeze a 20-point-something somewhere, but to get to nearly 22c would need something really exceptional. Perhaps slightly less wind and 850s around 14-15c would achieve this. Either way, it looks incredibly warm for the time of the year. The average for London for Novemeber is only 10-11c, so we're talking a good 7-9c above average here. Devil is in the detail, but if the high holds firm enough and the rain keeps away, it could turn into an almost summer like spell of weather for some parts. 6z GFS is pretty warm again.

Looks like being quie warm at times! Which I don't mind at all this time of year. ECM looks especially warm and more settled than the GFS. Jet looks like staying to the north, with quite a lot of troughing over the polar regions allowing for the storm track to keep away from the UK. It's not really deep enough into the winter season for anything properly cold anyway, but it could easily end up chilly and dank. Save the proper cold for another 6 weeks time when we have some nice cold air to tap into! For now, make the most of the mildness and chepaer heating bills!

Fairly disappointing runs today barring UKMO, with bth GFS and ECM especially pulling away from the idea of anything overly warm and settled. Darren Bett also said on last nights BBC update that today he will explain why there won't be anything too special to write home about in the longer term forecast. From mid to high twenties yesterday it now appears the trough will have more influence and we will see a few brief mid twenties incursions in the SE, with mucky atlantic influenced weather again dominating the NW. Same as the entire wretched summer really.

I wouldn't say the morning runs are overly bad? Low to the west spins up some warmer air than this muck we're currently dealing with.....yes it's a bit of a NW/SE split as is usual for this sort of set-up, but at least it's warmer! http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gefs/gefsens850London0.png Rather than the T850 mean of all GFS runs being around 4c as it is presently, it hovers around 9-10c....which should translate as low to mid twenties, witha small chance of something hotter. My straw clutching hobby shows no limits!

....in which case, why do they even put them up? I don't like the bashing the met office get from people who know nothing about the weather at all, but placing these extended outlooks up sets themselves up to be shot at! Back to the models, maybe the huge cold pool in the Atlantic is squeezing the thermal gradients further south this year - ie the jet is more southerly as the cold boundary is more to the south than it should be? I'm sure that's a simplistic was of looking at it, but maybe it'll help us out with some decent winter weather!

I do often wonder where the met get their information from.....as to me, there is nothing in any of the available weather data that points to anything settled at all in the forecast period. Trough well and truly entrenched over the UK, with the potential for another one or two low pressure systems moving in to give alot more rainfall. I honestly thought after the start of July we'd be in for a good summer....now it seems we've reverted back to the type of weather that dominated June.