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EPS still has troughing over the UK in a fortnight, it's just a weakening signal. There is literally zero output at the moment suggesting a move out of this unsettled rut at present. Just have to ride it out and hope for the best. Certainly being a stubborn old mule to shift now it's set in.

Is Alex slowly starting to morph into Kenneth Williams....that's the real trend here! Ooh, Matron!

This July hasn't been anything like as bad as 2012 though, and doesn't look like being, despite being low pressure dominated. Some areas in the NW may disagree I guess, but it's not been anywhere near as wet, cold and unsettled here. Your experiences may vary greatly on location as always in this country!

Welcome to July....I mean October.

UKV shows 30c being reached on Friday & Saturday

Like this you mean? UKV and GFS show 28/29c across the E/SE corner on Friday - this is a good few degrees higher than the ECM, but more likely I think. Could be a one day wonder - potentially still very warm in the far east of the UK on Saturday, but it's a losing battle from advancing rain and cooler air from the west.

Sure - I'm hoping that as quickly as this has descended upon us that at some point it'll just flip out of nowhere. Judging by the AAM forecasts it's just going to be a bit slower than first anticipated. Weather just likes to make mugs of us all. Just a bit surprised it's being quite persistent now that it's arrived, as it's not an atmospheric state like 2007/2012 that would tend to lend itself to long periods of unsettled weather for weeks on end.

Have to give the ECM model a bit of a slapped wrist here. The probability forecast has gone from all red from the 8th July to now not seeing any until the end of July in the space of 2 days. (30th June vs 2nd July) 500mb forecast also now has low pressure dominating for the next 2 weeks, and even week 3 has the UK surrounded by high pressure, which will either mean more concerted low pressure, or just flabby low heights resulting in showers or longer spells of rain. Let's hope the rise in momentum that Matt/Tamara have mentioned will bear fruit towards the last couple of weeks of the month. These usually from experience just appear from nowhere as the models don't factor them in too well. Either way it's a bit of a bust from most LRFs, none of which picked a low pressure dominated July coming to the party this year!

Didn’t say that. Just that it’s overwhelmingly likely going to be unsettled now for the next couple of weeks. Might squeak a day or so of something better next weekend, but otherwise it’s hope and pray it’s not a washout.

NOAA have until the 16th as a write off. Can’t see a quick way out of that one in 4 days…

Dreadful set of 00z runs. I really thought the unsettled start to July would flush out pretty quickly this year and not be like years gone by….looks like I was wrong. First 15-20 days look written off already now.

Models really struggling to resolve the low/high and where any plume of heat ends up. ECM is another warm one but I still think this is odds against.

It’s not great though….going off the anoms etc you’d have to say that the ukmo solution still looks far fetched. As much as I’d love for it come off!

This is why you use ensembles and not individual runs to determine how likely charts are. Sadly the ecm op wasn’t in keeping with the ens and was more likely than not going to get scaled back.

A very uninspiring set of 12z runs, none showing the eye candy we had on the 00z. No ridge to be seen…

ECM op was indeed a warm and settled outlier - the ensembles aren't as good, and the day 10-15 ECM is unsettled on the whole. Might have to wait until later in July for something better rather than get our hopes up and dashed!

Looks like a bit of a stand off. Here's GFS/GEM/ECM at day 8. Will the trough stall out west like the GEM/ECM show....or will it plough through like the GFS shows and keep it unsettled for all? The GFS Op is at the bottom of the ensembles so may be too progressive, though looking at the postage stamps at 192 for the GFS, it doesn't seem keen at all to develop anything like GEM or ECM.

As I look out of my window just now….with the rain falling from a lead grey sky, and the wind swirling….it could easily be October. Depressing.

I should think the ecm is way too progressive and an unsettled outlier. We hope!

GEM ensemble shows the 12z run isn’t even close to the hottest member….mean now up to 10-12c for next weekend. Chances seem to be on the increase for another blast of heat in a weeks time.

Have to confess I wasn’t expecting to see that at day 8 tonight….clearly at the very top end of expectations, but shows what can happen if that trough stalls and pressure can build ahead of it.

The ECM op was at the top end of the ensembles - but the general picture is an improving one for pressure, 500mb heights & 850 temps in the 7-10 day period. One to watch.

Much, much better ECM this morning. Trough held sufficiently west for a bit of a ridge and push of warmth to come in. Continuing to be a NW/SE split in terms of temperatures and rainfall. SE looking pretty dry still.

Apparently the hottest or joint hottest June on record just isn't good enough.....sigh.

The weather gods well and truly giving us our payback for the amazing June. What a terrible chart. Please just hurry up and get this pattern moved along, we're approaching the peak of summer and it's going to be wasted with this absolute pony.