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mb018538

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Everything posted by mb018538

  1. mb018538
    Why won't it be? You can't write it off when the models are only going out to the first few days of July. For all we know, this low pressure could disappear quickly and high pressure could return for the last 3 weeks of the month!
  2. mb018538
    ECM showing a similar picture next week - if you live in the south/SE corner then it's not looking like very much rainfall here. Very much concentrated in the west and especially the NW corner.
  3. mb018538
    Maxima from UKV: 29c Friday, 28c Saturday, 32c Sunday, 25c Monday. Perhaps ARPEGE isn't as out there as it looks. UKV has 850s of 6c and cloud mainly broekn Sunday afternoon, so 32c would certainly be achievable under that set up.
  4. mb018538
    More unsettled weather incoming, but away from the Western extremities, GFS doesn't even show much rain in the next 10 days. Many areas below 10mm. Western Scotland getting a much needed soaking too.
  5. mb018538
    Correct - fired up jet stream is usually a strong thermal gradient, and although these are weaker in summer than in winter, it’s quite a strong one there causing these deepening lows.
  6. mb018538
    We don't have the ingredients here for big tornadoes like they do in the states with the clashing of all the airmasses from the gulf/rockies etc. SSTs aren't anywhere near high enough to support hurricanes either. All we will get is decaying storms that get swept up by the jet stream thankfully!
  7. mb018538
    00z and 6z look very different at day 10...going to take a bit of sorting out for an accurate picture. Looks like it's going to be unsettled, but how unsettled?
  8. mb018538
    Make sure you enjoy the sunshine and warmth if that's your ticket over the rest of this week....strong signals now that after one of the best June's on record, we're about to see a sharp change going into July. How long will it last? Open to debate. The ECM Time/Longitude Hovmoller from Monday doesn't show the incursion lasting all that long - around a week before +ve 500mb heights return: Best enjoy these then!
  9. mb018538
    No surprises there - but the general trend is a downward one. Will the weather turn as we head into July?
  10. mb018538
    Dreadful ECM run, I’m willing to say that’ll be in the outlier pile when the ens come up soon…
  11. mb018538
    Looks like we need a GEM then. Even that has rain rapidly encroaching, but nowhere near as aggressive as GFS. I’ll get away with a good day here in the E corner, but it’d be a shame if half the country gets the breakdown during the day.
  12. mb018538
    High SSTs have more of an effect on our weather in the colder months. They’ll have some effect in the summer too for sure.
  13. mb018538
    It’s not overly surprising - 850s are 10c across the E/SE corner and we’re close to the solstice. Temps of 25-27c aren’t too out of the ordinary in that set up.
  14. mb018538
    I like both 30c plus in the summer, but equally I also like going out in the winter when it’s sub zero, sunny and crisp. I just dislike winter because in the UK it invariably means dull, chilly, wet and windy most of the time. If it was more continental id love it.
  15. mb018538
    ECM 00z was an unsettled outlier….phew!
  16. mb018538
    Downgrades on this mornings ECM sadly…has more interference over the weekend, with Sunday not even staying dry like the 12z showed UKMO also shows a band of rain tracking across, with only the eastern corner getting away with a decent day. So much flip flopping the last few days! I’m sure it’ll change further too…
  17. mb018538
    I think we should enjoy it while it lasts….there are murmurings of a change into July, but that’s a long way off at the moment. June has been sensational for many.
  18. mb018538
    ECM 168 next Sunday has 28c raw maxes…but it’s cloudless and with 16c 850 temps, that looks a bit conservative to me. I’d think 30c is more than likely seeing as it keeps undercooking things, and maybe another degree or two on top of that. Soon washed away, but after all the flip flopping over the last 3 days I’d say wait and see.
  19. mb018538
    I see you pretty much missed out again. We only have 7mm here so far, which considering most forecasts had a fair bit more, it’s a pretty poor return for an area in the high risk zone. I’m obviously aware they are hit and miss…
  20. mb018538
    Looks like June 2023 is going into the very top end of the hall of fame when all is said and done. Next weekend looking very nice again
  21. mb018538
    Throwing it down here in Cambridge now. Nothing too out of the ordinary at the moment though.
  22. mb018538
    After a good few weeks.....the heavens have finally opened here. Some welcome rainfall!
  23. mb018538
    Pretty simple one - humidity increases at night compared to daytime. Look at Wednesday - humidity in the 30s during mid afternoon, back up into the 80s before dawn. If night time temps hold up then it usually feels sticky here in the summer.
  24. mb018538
    Cap breached, and storms now breaking out. Strap yourselves in!
  25. mb018538
    Looks as if the cap has been breached in the last half hour (a little later than anticipated), severe storms starting to break out north of London and in the Midlands. All the heating from the morning is about to be put to use. Here we go!
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