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Lots of forecast headaches early next week arising from a trough disruption out to the west of the UK. Pressure ensemble shows a marked split in outcomes: So...by day 10, you've got: Probably best to wait another couple of days until this is resolved better.

I'd be worried about faintly smelling plant growth - the fuzz will be round before you know it! The weather has been pretty boring recently though. I like settled weather, but all this clag has made it pretty drab.

I probably should have pointed that out Tim....I try not to make a habit of posting massive outlier charts and trying and pass them off as representative or without a disclaimer. Slap on the wrist!

00z GFS continues the theme of potential for some very mild/warm weather into parts of the UK, though mainly concentrated into the E/SE. Next Thursday showing 22/23c in the London area, though this will clearly change at 11 days away:

Ppn totals back this up - with your traditional NW/SE bias taking hold: Not much in the E/SE corner, pretty wet in the NW.

Looking pretty grey here to for the upcoming days with classic anticyclonic gloom and decaying fronts trapped under the high. Think as we head into next week and the Atlantic starts to spring into life we should see it brighten up a bit, though with the threat of a little rain. No washout looking likely either.

It's the end of March though....even with those 850s a lot of areas make double figures. More of a glancing blow:

Something a bit more unsettled is still looking a bit more likely towards the end of the month - though models vary slightly with how the Griceland low develops and interacts along with a small circulation around the Azores at day 8: By day 10 we have these options as low pressure has more more influence, but still far from certain exact details:

Still the odd run or two going bonkers, but on the whole an average outlook in the offing. Next 10 days either bone dry or minimal ppn across almost the entire UK.

It's an often debated subject! The main problem I think being that in the depths of winter it would stay dark in Scotland well beyond 9am if BST ran all year round. It'd suit me better too for BST to run all year, but just a pipe dream at the moment!

We're almost there mate. It's pretty light now as it is, but in a fortnight once those clocks change then it's full steam ahead for the next 4 months. Can't wait for when we get into the 20s Celsius again.....

Thankfully the charts and output showing a biting cold easterly have pretty much gone, to be replaced by something slightly chilly at the end of the week before the high starts to move east and cut the cooler air off completely: By day 10 the models all have the high pushed away from the UK, with it likely turning more unsettled for the end of March.

The changing of the seasons... Southern Ireland up to 16c, S/SW England and Wales up to 12-14c....a biting easterly in eastern England holding temps back to only 4-5c in places. A cool and mainly dry/settled theme on the GFS ensembles too from early next week out towards the end of March:

Next week contrasts in charts: Parts of the W/SW very pleasant on Tuesday with temps up to 12-14c....parts of the east stuck in single figures under cooler air. Also potential for it to turn colder more widely later in the week as a biting Easterly sets in, with 850s down close to -10 (though this is an extreme outcome) Temperatures in this instance stuck down at 5/6c :

Morning runs further solidifying the thoughts of the high being more west based - with cooler air being circulated around the eastern flank and back over parts of the UK. Could be a bit cool and disappointing.

Starting to get some ideas now about the change to more settled weather - and also a trend to 'west is best' as it would appear the high is likely to sit just out to the west of the UK. Net result is milder air flowing up the western half of the UK, and colder air toppling down the eastern half around the high, as roughly shown by GFS/ECM/GEM:

ECM op was an outlier at the end of the run in terms of SLP/500/850, so not too much concern there. The general trend is good which is the main thing - with mean pressure above 1025mb from day 7 until day 10 and beyond. Probably another couple of days before we can start to be more sure about where the high may end up sitting.

Good to see a drier and more settled outlook returning after an unsettled week. Temperatures very much dependent on where the high ends up.....so we could end up with anything from single figure maxima to mid teens. To be determined.

Was just going to post the same. Seems to be a bit of a tussle now developing in around 8-10 days time. Some ensemble members want to build pressure, whilst others (like the slightly outlying GFS op this morning) keep it very unsettled. The larger cluster in the ECM 00z groups develops an omega block by day 15, while the slightly smaller cluster is a tad more mobile. One to watch with plenty of outcomes on the table.

Glad everyone else is moaning about the first few days of March too! We also got way more rain than was forecast here late yesterday. It absolutely threw it down for a good 3 hours when only showers were really forecast. Radar showed a quite organised and intense are of ppn slow moving. Quite a mundane spell of weather coming up as the PV rebounds after the pasting it took all winter. It probably stops any deep cold becoming an issue, but could also see a period of wetter and windier weather. Hopefully a short lived affair. I'll be looking for the first 21c day now spring is here anyway!

Still some hints of things quietening down after an unsettled week from Tuesday onwards. Especially on the GFS (though the 00z Op is a 'settled' outlier), but the trend is there. ECM to a lesser extent. One to keep an eye on after what will be quite an autumnal week!

GFS perhaps seeing a recovery in pressure towards mid month? ECM doesn't seem so sure: Either way - with a strong PV established again, which has coupled between trop/strat, any chances of serious cold weather returning look minimal at the moment.

Bit early for anything to do with final warmings and downwellings! All this shows is a recovery in the PV and westerlies in the upper strat layers that is starting to filter down weakly to the trop towards the end of Feb. Looks a temporary affair though, with some surface +ve anoms soon returning into March - perhaps why we're not seeing any zonal weather forecast for the next 2-3 weeks at least, and some interesting NWP charts appearing again! Effects of all the SSW likely to be felt further into March I feel... Charts below are now 3 days out of date but still give a good general feel I reckon:

We're also at the point now where solar input is starting to have more of a say during the daytime - so Friday to Sunday on the 00z ECM see daytime temperatures into double digits in places, despite the light winds. This rainfall chart for the next 10 days is very extreme too. Eastern areas of Norfolk/Suffolk/Essex seeing little or no rainfall at all in the next 10 days, while western areas that get stuck under waving/stalled weather fronts could see 100-150mm of rain, and of course flooding problems. We're used to seeing a West/East split in terms of ppn in the UK, but to this extent is quite shocking!

Most of the longer term ECM 00z clusters keep high pressure very close to/over the UK at day 10-15. Exact position would of course determine surface temps.