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Be very interesting to see the ecm ens later. I suspect this is out of the envelope, but there many be other less cold options!

We’re starting to see some potential lumps in the road! High pressure trying hard to build in but can’t as low pressure to the E/NE has nowhere to go. Net result is yet more northerlies. No. Thank. You.

6z GFS just can't quite build the ridge in - low pressure out to our NE is trapped in an omega blocking position with a ridge either side and nowhere to go. Hopefully this eastern European ridge isn't as strong, the low can exit and the Azores high can topple in more like the 00z run.

The most promising ECM clusters we've had for a while. Far from cur and dried, but nice to see some dark reds in some of the options near or over the UK as we head towards the end of May.

I went out at 6am to go to work and thought it was November (barring it not being dark!) 8/8 leaden grey skies, murky and drizzly damp feel to the air and about 7c. Not what I want in mid May. As a few others have noted - It's only 5 weeks to the solstice now and we've had nothing decent at all really barring those warm couple of days in late March. 2021 is the year of eternal late winter/early spring. Just seems like we're stuck in early April and haven't moved on.

ECM is getting there very slowly by day 10, key difference being that it doesn't kick the trough away to our NE like the GFS does, so the build of pressure doesn't get there. Should add that the GFS solution in building a massive strong ridge was extreme this morning anyway. The mean heads up above 1020mb by day 10 though, which would tend to indicate a shift away from this wretched low pressure dominated weather could be on its way in the last week of May. Patience required!

GFS 00z Hello Mr Azores high, nice to see you! This chart is day 9 - it builds in and sticks around until the end of the run at day 15.

ECM is starting to get there at day 10 with the Azores high starting to nose in. Let’s see if we can lock these gains in tomorrow, or if they are a red herring. Fingers crossed!

They are supportive of a pattern change towards the last week of the month. As @Tamara always advocates, signals lead models and not the other way around. It’s not unusual to see a quick pattern change in models when you think it isn’t coming.

No comment on the GFS 12z? Best ‘summer’ run of the season so far, turning warm and then very warm and settled. Will be a whopping outlier but it could be the start of something. The change is starting to appear at day 10 and not at day 16.....so fingers crossed!

Morning all, Not a great deal of change again today. Staying pretty unsettled for the next 10 days, until perhaps a hint of some change? ECM at day 10 GFS day 10 GFS and ECM have an Atlantic ridge (and another cold northerly), but it could be an escape route to some warmer and more settled weather after as the GFS shows 3 days later - as the Greenland block finally breaks down and high pressure moves in: Trying to stay positive, so hoping this is a trend setter and the models finally starting to sniff out the shift in teleconnections. I should probably add the fact that the GFS Op this morning is a bit of an outlier in building a high like that....but we gotta start somewhere, right?

No, it's pretty dreadful. These excellent charts from James Peacock show how poor May has been: This on the back of a freezing cold April too: If no warm up occurs then it could be an unprecedented cold April/May combo in many areas.

Certainly looks that way. Any attempts to settle things down just aren't materialising yet. I'm hoping the models just haven't properly factored this in and we will see an abrupt change appear. This is utterly horrific for late May. ECM eventually moves the MJO through, but this isn't until very late into May now, and we may have to wait this long to see a change.

Big Arctic high present on day 10 on this mornings 00z ECM: Southerly tracking jet and low pressure/rain to continue for a while yet: NAO will have been negative for 6 weeks straight. Never a recipe for warm weather in the UK

I honestly thought that after such a -AO dominated winter it would spring back and stay strong in spring. March clearly got the memo, but April and may have just seen it return and stick around like an unwanted guest. No sign of this breaking down in the next 10 days at least.

It isn't. If the jet was constantly running south of the UK every summer, then we'd have loads of below average months/seasons. That just hasn't happened.

Not normal at all. Anyone who thinks this current Jetstream position is in any way 'normal' needs to go back to meteorology school.

Latest ECMWF 500mb weekly plots show a steadily improving picture - though not fully until the last week of May: 10th-17th 17-24th 24th-31st

Would possibly tie in with MJO potentially moving through the Pacific region as we get towards the last 10 days of May. A week ago it looked as though this may happen around mid month - though this has been delayed and has got rather messy as you can tell from the scatter on the plot below. Hopefully it'll still push on and boot this NW Europe trough into touch. This would ratchet up AAM into positive territory and should promote more settled weather. The settled weather in April can be seen on this plot as the MJO cycle stalled around phase 7 for a large part of the month, which tied in to the very dry weather here. ECM isn't as keen yet, and although it starts to head over the the Pacific, its in the COD and not with any real amplitude. Needs watching.

The PV has already died - it waved goodbye a couple of weeks ago!

Nothing promising in the long range ECM 00z clusters this morning either: Unsettled for the next 10 days at least.

Day 1 - No Northern blocking and unsettled Day 9 - Northern blocking returns, stays unsettled Not really the sort of pattern emerging here if you'd like something warmer and more settled. Not as cold as it has been of late, temperatures around average or below in any unsettled periods.

Pretty disappointing 00z runs again. I’m hoping that we see an abrupt change in output in the next couple of days. This AAM forecast doesn’t really tie in with a big trough in NW Europe. I’d expect to see something more settled appearing soon.

12z GFS didn’t get the memo about breaking northern blocking down. Just look at the state of that.

A 2018 repeat - lovely! Gin clear skies and low humidity day after day. We will have to see, but i think a repeat of last summers disappointment won't materialise. We were stuck under a La Nina base, which promotes long periods of -ve AAM, which in summer means troughing in NW Europe. That's not to say it'll be a scorcher, but not as unsettled as last year. Back to there here and now - looks like staying unsettled right through next week as low pressure becomes stuck over the UK. Rain or showers for all areas, worst of the rain looks to be in the west.