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mb018538

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Everything posted by mb018538

  1. mb018538
    GFS is almost identical for Tuesday and does indeed show 25c being reached, with a large swathe of the country nice and warm too. A nice first day of June if tonight’s output is to be believed, and only 6 days away....so very plausible. I hope
  2. mb018538
    Day 6 ukmo 850s. Up to 10c in the south, so 25c+ would be on the cards in this setup.
  3. mb018538
    Belting day 6 UKMO chart tonight. Low pressure beaten off with a stick, staying warm and dry into Tuesday.
  4. mb018538
    ECM looks fairly reasonable this morning too. After a couple of days threatening a full on low pressure intrusion, models appear to be settling on a more typical UK summer pattern, with low pressure tracking more between Iceland/Faroe Islands, and high pressure nosing in and out of the UK:
  5. mb018538
    GFS vs UKMO 144 charts Houston, we have a problem!
  6. mb018538
    ECM really wants to push that unsettled weather through!
  7. mb018538
    Another progressive op run - not out of the envelope, but very close to it. Perhaps an aggressive breakdown in this form is slightly wide of the mark.
  8. mb018538
    Here we have GFS/GEM/ECM at day 8 in order of progression. ECM very keep to sweep everything away quickly, GFS has the high putting up more of a fight. Let battle commence!
  9. mb018538
    Shame meteociel don’t offer ecm pressure ensembles now like they used to! Hard to compare just off 850 temps. The mean tonight looks way better than the op though. More runs needed...
  10. mb018538
    Doesnt look like the beloved NOAA anomalies to me! What a rancid day 10 chart. See what those ensembles say, I reckon this off the scale bad.
  11. mb018538
    Couldn’t really make it up...a month to shake this trough away, we get high pressure for a few days and then we’re back stuck with a trough over us and high pressure either side. Weather gods laughing at us again!
  12. mb018538
    I like how you tried to claim you are impartial the other day then posted this it’s ok - we know you love the cold (clue is in the name for starters). Nothing wrong with that, just try to be more honest
  13. mb018538
    Fine dry and around average would have done the job. Not sure that 17c at the end of May constitutes warm maybe in February....
  14. mb018538
    Another very poor GEM run that descends into unsettled dross in a weeks time...
  15. mb018538
    Belting UKMO, much better than the 00z run. Can’t keep up with all this flip flopping!
  16. mb018538
    Think I might move to Verkhoyansk....guaranteed a cold and snowy winter, and in modern times a better summer than the UK too!
  17. mb018538
    Anyone wanting some heat - look away now. The 00z clusters build another huge Greenland high at day 11-15 and leave us back where we started in May.
  18. mb018538
    Well anyone who posts such things 2-3 months before a season is over (it's worse in winter for sure) needs their head testing. You simply can't predict anything that far away. I don't remember seeing one single forecast for the one of the driest and sunniest Aprils on record swiftly followed by one of the wettest and coolest Mays?
  19. mb018538
    I know what you mean. They've probably gone elsewhere where there's more of a buzz....
  20. mb018538
    A slightly disappointing ECM op run today confirmed by it being a bit off key. I'm not liking the slide down to back below average on the ensemble as we head into June though! That line is heading in the wrong direction!
  21. mb018538
    ECM isn't too great either: A blink and you'll miss it affair before the high just collapses away.
  22. mb018538
    Morning all, Let's have a look at the 00z charts... UKMO day 5/6 shows surface pressure high, but the nuisance trough from the east swings in. Best spots could be Scotland/Ireland here! GEM is similar at day 6, but goes off the rails at day 9: GFS also similar at day 6, but ends up half decent:
  23. mb018538
    As expected - the ECM idea of dropping that trough straight down the east of the UK at day 8/9 doesn’t sit well at all within the ensembles. The warm up into the bank holiday weekend still looking a good bet.
  24. mb018538
    Rising AAM doesn’t always correspond to warmth or even settled weather though sadly. Makes it more likely at this time of year that high pressure would be somewhere in NW Europe, but it can still end up in the wrong place for the UK. If it was that simple then forecasting would be a piece of cake!
  25. mb018538
    Yep - and throw in splitting energy and remnants of a tropical storm into the mixer, and it’s no real surprise there is zero consistency or consensus among the main output models. Could be one of those that doesn’t get agreement until 2-3 days out. Clearly 5-6 days at the moment is a real struggle.
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