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Summer in the UK summed up in a chart

Truly awful day here. Heavy rain all morning and 13c. Yuckkkkkkkk

A couple of lucky breaks here and there and we could get away with it! This chart below shows how. Upper troughs to the SW and E of the UK, and we just about sit under a weak ridge. This leaves a very nice summers say for many. If these troughs move just a little bit, we could be talking mid to upper teens, cloud and rain. Very slim margins!

Not looking quite so doom and gloom on UKMO this morning: Weak ridge over the UK by the end of the week. 850s actually look at at around 8c, so will probably be ok in places (22/23c) if there isn't any frontal stuff toppling in from the NW.

ECM in full on trolling mode by day 10. It’s another of those so bad to be true charts that we seem to be a magnet for in the UK!

Once again Siberia is an absolute bake. Recurring theme of the modern summer.

Weve had a nice couple of weeks after a month of crud in May….so the weather gods have decided to punish us with more crud in June. Yuck!

Yeah I’ve seen this before. Some of them make me laugh….mid autumn storms between 24th October and 13th November 100% likely…really?! Wow! Who’d have thought I might do my own ones. Winter frosts 100% likely December 1st until March 31st! Still don’t like the term though. A monsoon is a seasonal and predictable period of significant rainfall, which we we just don’t get here.

European monsoon has never been a real thing. I hate the term! If it was an actual monsoon then June would be miles wetter than it is. All 3 winter months have higher rainfall averages.

I wouldn't even mind if it was slightly more unsettled and a bit mobile with systems passing us by. But it isn't. As is what seems to be the norm now, it's feast or famine. So we just get low pressure stuck over the UK again with nowhere to go, which can lead to absolutely rotten weather. Ie GEM today. Same low pressure system stuck over us for 5 days straight:

Looks like we're now back to what we know best in this country. A couple of weeks at least of disappointing temperatures, rain on virtually every day and cloudy skies. So long as it doesn't last more than a couple of weeks it'll be alright.

Probably the most unsettled 0-240 hour model runs we've had since May this morning. Low pressure and rain the order of the day for many, and for a change Scotland is perhaps the driest place to be. Seen a few comments re AAM. It's a very difficult subject to understand fully, but is driven by changes in global circulation like the MJO/Mountain torque events etc that have downstream effects on weather around the globe. Definitely not as simple as high AAM = settled weather and low AAM = unsettled though. It's way above my paygrade to explain properly. This little explainer (c/o Matt Hugo's twitter page) gives a good understanding of what goes on with the Global Wind Oscillation (GWO) though.

Absolutely dreadful here in Cambridge. Hasn’t even rained much either considering the apocalyptic forecasts. Yawn.

Don’t think we’re headed down that path at all as you say. Least year was very low -AAM dominated due to Nina, and the incoming drop isnt anything like the same.

It's absolutely destroying me at the moment too. Both of my sinuses feel like they are going to explode, and if I blow my nose to clear it then it's a guaranteed nosebleed. Heat and very high pollen levels are a bit of a disaster for me as much as I love summer. Tablets and nasal spray provide little to no relief. Wish I could go back to being under 17 again, as I never suffered until then and it was bliss!

After what could be a very wet week to come, it looks a fair bit drier thereafter - tying into a general rise in pressure. ECM is having a lay in it appears - no 00z run today!

Latest ecm update has a big scandi high dominating. Looks potentially awesome here. But it’s only a forecast….

The ECM forecast is fairly similar - though with a fall now until the first week of July, I wouldn’t be expecting the second half of the month to be that great. Could be looking at 3 weeks of mainly trough dominated weather now as pacific convection completely dries up, before the MJO starts moving again early July. Probably not on the scale of last summer though.

Not sure I buy this evolution. Very rare to get a Greenland high and an Azores ridge building over the uk at the same time!

Probably the less said about the 12z GFS run the better. One of the worst of the summer so far!

It definitely can! A couple of years ago we had a grey easterly in June here with drizzle and rain all day. Top temp was about 11-12c. Filth.

Surprising stat. Obviously this is going to drop mid month onwards, but the topsy turvy weather from April and May has continued into June….

Not all doom and gloom on the ECM mean. Note the 500mb heights increasing from day 8-10, as well as the 1020mb line starting to cover the UK again by day 10. Mean 850 temps also recovering as the trough slowly lifts out.

Spot the torrential thundery rain! Heavily focused across the SE corner as you may expect with what is coming from late Wednesday onwards. The tropical Atlantic has also woken up. TS Bill is into the mix, and the yellow X disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico has a 70% chance of forming into a storm according to NHC. It appears the ECM thinks this turns into a full blown system at day 7-10 as it exits the eastern seaboard and heads our way:

UKMO looking more than a little fresh in 7 days time - 850s down to -2c near the end of June! Frost in a few sheltered areas? Certainly looking more unsettled to start next week, the evolution after this is a bit sketchy though. This looks like the most likely scenario - heights out to the west and east of the UK, with the UK in a weak troughing area?