mb018538

It's still quite unsettled though even without a low over us - low 500mb heights and cool upper trough still in situ (again). So even though pressure is around 1020mb, it's an unstable atmosphere and unsettled with lots of very heavy showers bubbling up. Recurring theme for summer 2021!

Good job I didn't post a link to this! Maybe if someone else says it, it won't sound so bad.

I'm sure they probably would. Even I wouldn't want 34c every day. Just something more akin to the time of year. This is the view out of my window again.....another day with zero sun. 14c and cloudy, could pretty much be any month of the year in these conditions. Let alone the height of summer.

Not a bad 6z so far, sunshine and heavy showers for Monday. 12-17c should feel quite nice if you catch some sun though.

Not directed you at all @Paul_1978. I know your post wasn't intended that way. Just a general observation of nearly 20 years reading and posting on weather forums. People on here just like the winter and don't really care about summer or people who enjoy it, it's just a fact. I'm just speaking for the majority of this country who prefer a nice summer rather than a washout, but that just goes against the grain here. You must be a winter sheep. Ramp away all you like in November to March without consequence or grief. I'd bet if you asked 100 people on the street would you rather a day in July was 24c and sunny or 15c, dull and wet I'd bet 80%+ would choose the sunshine.

It’s the same on here every single year though. In winter everybody has to like really cold weather; any mention of mild and the wolfpack surround you from all sides and just chuck mud at you and berate you for being a party pooper. In summer you aren’t allowed to show any dislike for low pressure and rain dominated weather, even if it’s what the bloody charts are showing for the next week or two one rule for one season and one rule for another, ad infinitum.

Sorry, but I can’t agree there…I know it’s been a decent month up north, but it hasn’t down south. Over 200% rainfall, and most of that in a fortnight. Chard flooding: People rescued and homes damaged WWW.BBC.CO.UK Floodwater gushes into properties in and around Chard, Somerset, following heavy rainfall. Also if those doesn’t count as biblical rain, then I don’t know what does…

Sadly that ECM 00z run was wildly off the mark again this morning....not sure what's been up with it lately. Very erratic.

UKMO 168 hour chart is no better either. The UK green blob magnet cranked up to the max.

Just to air my continued frustration with the BBC extended forecasts again... Weather for the Week Ahead - BBC Weather WWW.BBC.CO.UK July is just around the corner - but is there any summer-like warmth and sunshine on the way? Nick Miller has the forecast. The one from last night again shows the ECM 00z op run as their day 7-10 chart, which had the high pressure building in (even though it was an outlier and none of the other model runs showed this). Why don't they think before they produce these? At least the MetO extended forecasts on YouTube etc speak about uncertainty and show other outcomes.

Some car crash runs this morning….especially the GFS. Low arrives Monday next week…. ….and the same low is still over us 6 days later: Just dreadful. Think we need to buckle in for an unsettled spell here, we aren’t escaping this one it would seem!

Then why bother posting countless charts referencing them every day? If that’s that’s your outlook then you might as well just wake up and look out of the window and see how weather for the day goes… Anyway, back to tonight. We’ve gone from a Scandi high on the 00z run to a scandi trough on the 12z. Seeing as all the extended forecasts want a scandi high, a big trough there would be against the guidance and a massive bust.

Safe to say the ecm 00z is a distant memory now….12z looks like the rest and is very poor by Monday.

Looks like we might even get a big Greenland high building too. Wonderful stuff

Really? GFS is terrible:

Can’t really compare to Auckland though….it’s at 36S. For comparison, 36N is North Africa/Southern California, so it’s waaaaay close to the equator than we are!

Sometimes I can't believe Moscow has an almost identical June and July average max as London. Just seems whenever you look at the forecast in eastern Europe it's either warm or hot, or there's some warm or hot weather in the forecast in the very near future. Back here? 2-3 weeks without anything of note is a guarantee. Can't believe we're going to get towards mid July without 30c being reached!

Thanks @Tamara as ever for your detailed analysis. At least in Portugal you know you'll get a decent summer For us here in Blighty, it hangs in the balance as you say. Perhaps the Met Office long ranger below hints slightly at what you've mentioned (highlighted) Re ECM/GEM ens, with a bit more ridging poking it's nose in than some of the washout runs we've seen. Time will tell. Saturday 3 Jul - Monday 12 Jul A chilly night in places leading into a warm Saturday, especially across the east. Unsettled conditions spreading from the southwest, signifying the change to more unsettled conditions. Sunshine and showers ahead of this band of cloud and rain, with the risk of sharp and thundery showers in southern and western areas later. Beyond the weekend, although confidence becomes lower, there is most likely to be a split between the southwest and northeast, with southern and western parts seeing some showers, and perhaps longer spells of rain, whilst the best of any dry weather remains across the north and east. Temperatures are likely to trend above normal, notably across some parts of the northeast. Winds remaining light to moderate for most, though possibly strong in the west at times.

ECM 500hpa anomalies from yesterday show a more unsettled couple of weeks before week 3 (12th-19th July) looks more promising. Scandi heights still evident. Strong blocking signal still overwhelming. MJO moving to more favourable phases as we move through July:

Only 5/51 ensemble members have this sort of setup, and the mean is much flatter too. Think we can chuck it safely in the bin.

I'm not buying that at all either. There are a small number of GFS ensembles that go warmer around that sort of time, but no strong signal.

GFS finally comes in tail between legs and falls into line…..all models now showing a disturbed spell of weather through next week, and possibly beyond. Going to be a bit of a wait for anything notably settled now, perhaps out towards mid July.

Always amazes me how the jet stream is supposedly pushed north in the summer, taking lows up to Iceland. It’s more like they repeatedly plough straight through the uk in autumn and winter, as well as summer

Thre answer is a resounding no. A sight we see all too often in the UK. Everywhere else gets the goods, we take one for the whole of europe with the crap.

Got to laugh really. Can’t even get one mildly settled day this week! That bloody trough now wants to sit in the North Sea Friday and Saturday and put a fly in the ointment. By Saturday we have fronts moving in from the Atlantic too.