mb018538

I wouldn’t count on it….it’s very keen on that Atlantic low!

Surely some places in the SW must be under loads of water now? Some areas have been under red radar echoes for 1-2 hours!

Still looking to promote that ridge ahead of the Atlantic low. Bit of a lone wolf at the moment though with UKMO/ECM/GEM all saying no to the ridge. Guess we can't totally discount it just yet, but it's unlikely.

Most forecasts from earlier in June appear to have grossly underestimated the fall in global AAM for this part of the month. Bigger fall, and could take a while before it recovers. This in part due to the MJO just stalling in phase 1 and the pacific being void of any convective activity. Tentative signs that towards mid July MJO is starting to move towards the maritimes again, but I wouldn't expect much to cheer about until then.

None of the ECM clusters are looking overly settled at day 8-10

ECM pretty poor into next week too...turning unsettled with heavy rain moving in:

Also to note - most models wildly over exaggerated with the rainfall in my area. The SW has clearly taken a battering which was forecast, but a lot of forecasts for here were 50mm plus over the previous days....we've had a little overnight rain, with not too much more expected now:

UKMO and GEM not interested in any high pressure amplification ahead of the low this morning: GFS more amplified, warmer and settled with temps into the mid 20s:

The op run was part of that bottom cluster today, which is far more unsettled. The middle one looks like a winner as it builds a scandi high in ahead of the low.

Thankfully the ECM op was a bit extreme….but the general theme is a bit wobbly. The nice settled charts after the low clears away of a few days ago looking like a distant memory.

Oh dear. Worst chart of the summer so far?

What settled spell? Cyclonic outlook gaining traction on ecm, gem and ukmo this morning. Gfs goes more settled later, but does anyone really believe that?

I’m probably just whinging because it looks so bad here

Have to say the outlook on the operational looks increasingly poor. Any high pressure building at the end of next week looks like a weak affair that’s probably going to be swept away without much resistance, and we may have to wait longer for something more substantially settled appearing.

UKMO day 6/7 finally clears the low, hooray!

Was there any forecast of a tornadic supercell today? That looked absolutely off the charts on the Doppler radar. No surprise to see pictures and videos like this!

ECM run tonight it truly horrific 2-5 inches of rain over the next 10 days. Flooding woes to come by the looks of it, no surprise that the models have now settled on the worst possible outcome!

GEM is much better again….GFS very mobile this evening. Just disappointing that the cut off low pressure is going to stick around for so long through next week for a good few million people. Its still not even cleared away on Friday on the ukmo 168 tonight:

ECM has been about as bullish as you can get in suggesting a strong Scandi high will dominate in July - this now starting to show in the extended clusters. ECM average this morning showing we may have to wait until Friday before the last remnants of this damned trough dissipate. It's now a question of how wet it will be in the south. It's also not too often you see a summer temperature profile like this in the UK - but this will be typical for much of the next 5 days. The far NW, Scotland and Ireland the place to be for a very fine week....while us folks down south could endure a miserable week of rain and suppressed temps. Enjoy your warm week in the sun people of the north!

Going on the ECM - yes, you are right there. Trough is already over the UK as we speak, and isn't forecast to clear for 7/8 days on the 00z ECM! Very wet: UKMO has it finally filling and moving away by Friday next week: GEM looks more promising by Thursday:

It’s ghastly tonight. I won’t take it as gospel as we have other runs that are fairly good too. No agreement, so no confidence at all.

ECM is very poor for the south. Trough gets stuck and inches of rain. Scotland and Ireland looks best here!

Good luck is all I can say. The 7 day forecast for Kamloops might be the most outrageous I’ve ever seen. Forecasts anywhere from 42-48c online. I think 48c ain’t happening, but it’s ridiculous either way. It’s at 50N!

Nobody knows @Jon Snow….met office and bbc forecasters all saying the same. Cut off low causing forecast nightmares, and even though it’s just a couple of days away now, it’s still nowhere near sorted. Quite unusual in the modern age of forecasting to have so much uncertainty at less than 5 days lead time. We will just have to be patient.

Chuckle brothers isn’t it…..to me, to you!