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mb018538

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Everything posted by mb018538

  1. mb018538
    ECM out on its own again with a big uk high. Not overly convinced by this yet.
  2. mb018538
    I was surprised someone as experienced as Marco even put that tweet out yesterday…..based on that clearly outlying ukmo op run last night, which has vanished today. The outlook was uncertain yesterday and uncertain today…..nothing has changed!
  3. mb018538
    Well, I don’t live in Crewe! The last 5 days here have been 14/13/13/11/17c, during which I have recorded 0 hours of sunshine. That might be some sort of record….absolutely disgusting for the longest days of the year. More like October or November
  4. mb018538
    I’m getting fed up with Eastern European countries that have similar averages temps to the uk just constantly getting decent summer weather year on year while we mop up the crud. Siberia hot again, Russia hot, Baltic hot. Finland hot. Pretty much everywhere except here. UK is now one of only 3 countries in all of Europe to not see 30c yet this year, what a surprise…
  5. mb018538
    GEM eventually anchors the low to the sw by Sunday, which advects warm s/se’erlies up from the continent, with temps up to 25-28c. Such slim margins.
  6. mb018538
    UKMO run a million times better than gfs at day 7. One to bank, one to bin!
  7. mb018538
    I’m gonna go with trough dominated. It usually wins out in the kind of situation, low of sod and all that.
  8. mb018538
    L Trough close by giving a wet weekend for many areas.
  9. mb018538
    12s runs still can’t agree on the trough position at day 4
  10. mb018538
    Yeah it’s a stupid modern term. A holiday can be a holiday in the UK, and was for the majority of people for many years. Only since European travel got cheap this got flipped and if you had a UK holiday it was a staycation.
  11. mb018538
    Pretty unacceptable to be honest for high summer. Been rancid since that hot day last Wednesday. Another cool-ish one tomorrow before Wednesday warms up a tad.
  12. mb018538
    It does happen on occasion! Lots at play still here. Until that trough gets pinned down anywhere could end up with anything! ECM Ensembles have gone all M People this morning - Movin' on up: Top two ECM clusters look reasonable, the 3rd one looks disappointing with a regressed high and low pressure dominating:
  13. mb018538
    To be honest - I haven't got a clue! Any one of them could be right I guess. The 120 hour UKMO fax chart for 12z Friday (published last night) I would expect to change when updated today though. I mean just look at the differences compared to the 00z op run:
  14. mb018538
    Well this is most unhelpful! The Big 4 at 144 hours, all looking different: ECM develops into quite a nice run though. West based high, so the best conditions tending to best west of the UK/Ireland, while cooler air feeds down the eastern half. Eastern coastal areas could suffer with very cool temps in this set up stuck in the low to mid teens:
  15. mb018538
    Unsurprisingly the 00z UKMO looks nothing like last nights run. The vanishing trough from yesterday has re-appeared more akin to other model output. As the low sinks south it starts to advect warmer air up from the SE:
  16. mb018538
    Yeah - a good indication of not to use 850s as the only guide for heat. You’ve got them at 17c on the south coast, but highs only in the mid 20s as cooler air cuts over the top. Still - I’d take that in a heartbeat after 4 days without any sun at all here and temps stuck at 15c!
  17. mb018538
    Think UKMO is wrong in dissolving the low too quickly. ECM isn’t bad as it clears through into the weekend and day 6 onwards is decent enough.
  18. mb018538
    Surely the ukmo 12z is wrong tonight?!
  19. mb018538
    ECM going ultra aggressive with the trough at 144. Look at GEM at the same time: Night and day. More runs needed!
  20. mb018538
    Looks a bit odd with a warm 850 NW flow there. High building east doesn’t really fit global patterns at the moment, so I’d expect it to stay more out to the west. It’s just if it can extend its tentacles out and keep us more settled. Not overly warm though. Could ask be fairly disappointing in many areas next week with a trough sliding down. Exact position will determine who does well and who doesn’t. West looks best.
  21. mb018538
    Next 3 days forecast here are 16/16/14c, and that after 15c today and 13c yesterday. Only 5-8c below where it should be for mid to late June. No sun either. Could easily pass for an early October day.
  22. mb018538
    Not that at all….when you get a chart so far off the other output, it’s usually an outlier. As these charts above show.
  23. mb018538
    Horrific ecm. Gotta be an outlier!
  24. mb018538
    ECM not as good. Trough involved and plenty of rain around:
  25. mb018538
    Unexpectedly good 144 chart. Again relies on some precise trough splitting either side of the UK but would be most welcome after the deluge today and the coming days!
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