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mb018538

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Everything posted by mb018538

  1. mb018538
    Great set of 12z runs for the next 7-10 days. Bit open to question beyond mid month, but still very good. The lowest forecast max here until the 15th is 23c, which is very nice indeed!
  2. mb018538
    Peak of the heat on this ecm run is Sunday, with around 28/29c forecast. The models are starting to firm up on a more W/E or NW/SE split, which you’d expect in a very warm tropical maritime flow. Cloudier in the NW and W with a little bit of rain....driest, brightest and warmest in eastern/southeastern areas closer to high pressure and as the air dries out across the country.
  3. mb018538
    Looks more like something out of the tropics! Looks dubious to me.
  4. mb018538
    Indeed - where on face value the top chart looks like a classic sunny day, it may not be. Corresponding temps are very good though - into the low/mid 20s. Not bad at all!
  5. mb018538
    UKMO and GFS still looking different at 144...
  6. mb018538
    There are some areas of convergence which coupled with some instability gives the uplift and showers. You can see the stronger SW flow to the west of Ireland/Scotland.
  7. mb018538
    Lots of frontal muck trapped under the high sadly. So despite pressure being above 1024mb it could be quite wet. Shame!
  8. mb018538
    It’s possible, though the odds would probably favour amplification to the west and east again with troughing returning closer to us. Not guaranteed though, June 2018 went against this! MJO projected to move around mid month with -ve anoms replacing positive that have supported the fine start to June here. With a bit of lag then maybe into last 10 days a change could come about. One to watch:
  9. mb018538
    It is possibly, though something a tad more unsettled after mid month is definitely an option. Should be fairly good on the whole until then though. We will see what transpires!
  10. mb018538
    Yes - I was out golfing in that crud this afternoon! Stayed over at a hotel and it was such a contrast to yesterday. 26c and roasting hot sun all day. 15c and rain from about 11am all days today.
  11. mb018538
    ECM ending on a high: GFS on a low:
  12. mb018538
    Fronts/troughs could give a fair few showers at times in the week. Friday could see more persistent rain for some if ECM is right:
  13. mb018538
    Looks good @northwestsnow. First half of June looks to be a banker for fine weather. GWO/AAM plots continue to hold in the high/positive phases, which should mean this pattern holds out for a while yet.
  14. mb018538
    Now this is the sort of NH profile I love to see in June! No damned Greenland high to be seen!
  15. mb018538
    Definitely going to be a warm/hot one today. Already 23c at 10am, I’d expect we will see a 27/28c somewhere this afternoon.
  16. mb018538
    Steady as she goes. Looks very good still, with settled and warm weather dominating for the next 10 days at least.
  17. mb018538
    You are quite right. Failed my geography exam there! Porthmadog is usually the hotspot in the NW as you say.
  18. mb018538
    Well the NW area around Liverpool does well in this E/SE set up due to a fohn effect as the winds come over the tops of the hills and warm up further on the leeward side. Could just be a peculiarity why it’s warmer, not too sure where the station is situated there. If it’s urban that could add a bit on. Trawsgoed is often the warmest in NW Wales though, and that’s a rural spot.
  19. mb018538
    Nice to see the GFS covering itself in glory again. Gone for a 22c max here today on the 6z run and we’re already at 24.4c at 1pm. It often fails miserably at max temps. Same with Liverpool. 23c predicted, currently 25c
  20. mb018538
    Looks like you will be in luck. Potential for some rainfall on Sunday 6th, but otherwise mainly settled. Temps probably in the 15-20c range. Doesn’t look like any heat being around at this stage, warmest conditions through this period look to be more towards the SE. Not a bad week to go away though, certainly no washout!
  21. mb018538
    Euro4 is higher res. Euro4 runs at 4km resolution, ECM hi res is at 9km.
  22. mb018538
    ECM does actually have a few isolated showers on day 8-10 with a disturbance trapped under the high. Conjecture at this point as it’s so far away, but could see a fly or two in the ointment. Hopefully not eh!
  23. mb018538
    Rinse and repeat on the ecm today as a big anticyclone dominates NW Europe. Looking like a very good first half of June could be unfolding.
  24. mb018538
    Arpege showing 28c on Wednesday and 27c Thursday: Marco Petgana over on Twitter is upping the ante and saying the met office expect a possible 28-29c to be reached tomorrow!
  25. mb018538
    Not too fussed either. If it’s low 20s and settled then that’s lovely. My personal preference is about 24-27c rather than 20-23c, but beggars can’t be choosers and after the dreadful weather in May, this is about a good an about turn as you can get. A great start to the 3 month block of the summer months.
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