mb018538

Well. A big hot settled outlier of a gfs run, and a very poor ecm 12z run compared to the gfs and also the 00z run. I suspect it’s going to be bottom of the pack. Going through the GFS ensembles too - the majority blow up a low and plough it straight through the UK next weekend (see below) which seems very at odds with ukmo and ecm.

Some very nice charts starting to sow up now in just over a weeks time. With more regularity too. A little taste of summer may not be far off now folks.

Yeah - it’s a warm outlier, but the mean climbs above 5c at 850hpa and that’s the key. It’s getting warmer. No heatwave imminent, but after weeks of rain and suppressed temperatures, 20c will feel bloody lovely!

Bank Holiday weekend treat from the ECM this morning

ECM is nice again at day 9/10, but we’ve been stuck there since about midweek. The ones that were showing then and have moved in to day 6/7 now aren’t anything like as settled. If it means a slightly longer road through next week and weekend to get there then I’ll take it!

UKMO 144 - that’s what we’ve been waiting for!

Slowly slowly catchy monkey. The warm up back to something more akin to average is now in sight.

The 00z is very messy. All these little troughs etc floating around is making it almost impossible to work out what we’re going to end up with in a week or so!

ECM a very good run no doubt - but is very knife edge. Looks like a lot of things could go either way and leave us warmer and more settled and cooler and less settled. Messy.

Don’t agree with that at all. Quite a few Septembers in recent years have had far better weather than In august. To all intents and purposes it’s still a summer month barring the darker evenings!

ECM 216 from this morning vs GFS 12z for day 9:

Bit concerning to see the gfs keep churning out these garbage runs that don’t even resemble high pressure!

00z vs 06z for Bank Holiday Monday - Greenland high vs Greenland low. Nice and consistent! ?

Looks like the 6z GFS is having another wobbly....I'll leave it to go on it's merry way.

You can, but I don't enjoy it. What's the point in spending 30 quid to trudge round for 4 hours in the soaking wet? I've done it before and it ain't for me. Not enjoyable at all, anyone who says otherwise is lying Don't mind the odd shower that an umbrella can solve while playing, but steady and persistent rain and I'm out of there. Fair weather golfer perhaps!

Feel your pain buddy! I was out on the course playing Wednesday afternoon. We dodged a monster storm by about 1-2 miles at about 5pm, then as I was on the 14th hole this was rolling in for a direct hit. Picture doesn't really do it justice, the sky was jet black, it got very gloomy and the air temperature dropped markedly. Could see the rain belting down in the distance and knew we didn't have long. Got to the 17th, hit my tee shot and it hosed it down. Thunder started rumbling so we had to peg it through the torrential rain to a shelter rather than be huddled under a tree in a storm! 30 minutes later it was safe enough to play a sopping wet 18th! This weather recently has really naffed up my golf schedule. Can't plan anything as it could rain at any time with all these storms about.

Probably because there's a 1033mb low trapped in there over the weekend! A long way down the road though as you say. That'll be the fly in the ointment on this particular run, but very likely to change.

Good job the 00z op run was a pile of garbage then eh! Far too pessimistic IMO.

ECM looking pretty good by day 9 too For those that like the sun and settled weather without the heat (and there are a few on NW!) then this could be ideal. Upper teens and light winds. A nice tonic as I sit in my work office listening to 50mph winds rattle around the windows. Edit - Day 10 also looks grand: No northern blocking to be seen either:

Not sure I totally agree there - though I don't like the way the GFS evolves and ends up with this at the end. If northern blocking returns in full force then the chances of anything warm and settled lasting is pretty remote. A bit at odds with the ECM at the moment though. Look at the 00z 240 NH view against last nights ECM 12z mean. No high pressure over the pole at all on the ECM. GEM is fairly pleasant by day 9/10, especially in your neck of the woods sheltered on the south coast. Light winds and temps high teens/20c by Monday there.

Sorry but that 12z ECM run is utter garbage. Not only do we have a pesky upper trough left from the Low over the UK in the first half of the week, another nuisance feature makes its way in from the west. At day 9 we have 2 upper lows visible. Net result is cool air aloft, plenty of cloud, some showers and disappointing temperatures despite pressure being high. Hoping it’s wrong and GEM is more on the money.

What a horrific 12z gfs run. Surely this is an outlier? Manages to sneak a low through to the uk:

Looks a bit better. We've also finally got an ECM op run that's more representative of the mean, and a warming trend as we end the month of May. When I say warming, it doesn't mean warm though. Merely a rise from way below average to slightly below average (850 temps average out at around 4-5c in London by the start of June).

Good to see at day 10 that we finally have a Greenland low & low pressure over the Arctic where it should be! Hopefully things warm up a bit as we head into June. AAM predicted to hold in a positive phase into the first week of June, so the threat of the unsettled trough dominated weather should be off the table for a little while.

Looks like we're going to have to rely on the sun to work its magic. High pressure, but no warm upper air to assist. Mid to high teens at best, but without the threat of torrential downpours that we've seen the last few weeks. A bit of a dry off is probably most welcome after the very wet May!