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This looks very interesting - though how it can forecast an Iberian low at 13-15 days time I'm not sure!

Unfortunately as we sit next to the Atlantic ocean, a lot of high pressure cells build in from that direction and have moisture embedded - or low pressure and fronts are close enough by to add cloud into the mix. A nice dry high to our East would do the trick, but on the whole it's not been too bad IMO. Perhaps i'll have a skewed opinion due to location.

Cold front going through early on Monday morning, and although by Monday afternoon there are just a few showers knocking around, with cooler air in place and winds gusting up at 40-55mph in this region, it'll probably feel quite unpleasant!

UKV showing 30-31c London area for Monday. At the same time it could be 9c in the NW of Scotland, which would be a crazy contrast!

ECM keeps things toasty on Monday and Tuesday in the SE. By this point, folks in Scotland, the NW and Western areas may be wondering what the fuss is about as a big drop in temperatures has happened here: The last slithers of warmth on Wednesday: Cooler and fresher for all by Thursday: A weak ridge of high pressure means the end of the week isn't too bad, a few showers around before it turns more mobile by Sunday:

UKMO keeps it very warm out until Thursday in the south and east in particular. Colder air tucking into the north on Tuesday and Thursday. Some contrast there though, 850s at -2 in northern Scotland on Tuesday while being up at 13c in the south. By Thursday the colder air is rapidly advancing, which finally brings and end to this warmer spell:

26c and sunny. Beautiful day. Can just start to see the cloud approaching in the sky in the west, but we’ve probably got 2 hours before it makes it here. So not a day ruiner at all. Lovely

Tuesday and Wednesday just about seeing a ridge hang on for dear life: By Thursday some troughing close by looks likely. Impacts/rainfall etc not yet decided: Anything beyond this well up in the air at the moment.

If I could bottle today and have it all summer then I would! Clear blue skies, a light breeze, and temperatures in the low to mid 20s. Perfect.

Decaying front heading south could be suppressing temps on some models. Depends how much it fragments and breaks I guess. ARPEGE 27c - cloud breaking up as the day progresses UKV 25/26c - not too much cloud either

ECM is slightly better and has a few 28c patches showing. By Monday it's concentrated in the SE corner as some cooler air from the west approaches: The ECM run as a whole isn't too bad though. Quite a deep low approaching by Tuesday, but it steers more or less out of the way: It's that much out of the way that many areas don't even see any rain (barring the poor folk in NW Scotland): Dropping down closer to normal, but certainly no summer washout. Just average, useable conditions. Sounds alright to me.

UKV a fair way short of 30c on Sunday on this morning's run...

ECM also has a patch of 28c showing for Sunday afternoon. Allowing your usual 1-2c upwards adjustment and it could be very close! When you bear in mind the 12z run had this showing for this afternoon: It actually reached 25c in London. So 30c certainly not out of the question.

Looks more mobile and back down closer to average, but certainly no depressing washout. Low pressure staying just enough out of the way, and about where it should be during the summer months.

Exactly - it’s been fine all month anyway. That’s just what is showing in the output. We’re just discussing what’s showing in the models. Are we not allowed to discuss if something slightly less settled shows up in the summer?

Hints of something a little more unsettled coming through in the second half of June. Rainfall spikes starting to appear, and MSLP dropping slightly: This could tie in with a bit more mobility as shown by the ECM regime ensemble yesterday. A period of +NAO (which can also be no bad thing in summer) is set to follow the current blocking regime (red squares), but blocking is strongly favoured to return as we move into July. As Simon Lee mentioned over on twitter, the latest ECM seasonal run at the beginning of June had a strong signal for Scandi blocking when compared to the May forecast (see diagram below). It also continued to forecast low Greenland/Iceland heights. It's good to see the 7th June update yesterday double down on this, and increases the chance of a warmer and drier July if this scenario plays out: We will come back to this in 3 weeks time and see how the ECM mystical powers have done!

Using 850s to guess isn't wise as the chart above shows! The SE could have the highest 850s and be 10c cooler than other areas. UKV chart WWW.THEWEATHEROUTLOOK.COM UKV is a high resolution numerical weather prediction model run by the UK Met Office TheWeatherOutlook have recently made the UKV model free to view, which goes out to 120 hours. I find this to be absolutely brilliant for predicted maxes. Run by UKMO at a very high resolution, and often very accurate. Going out past 5 days is guesswork anyway, so stick with this and you won't go far wrong.

ECM is probably the worst of the models this morning for temps. Quite an odd temperature profile too, which indicates a colder undercut: We scrape an odd 27/28c, but no 30s on any of the charts.

Let's have a heat watch for this mornings runs: GFS Saturday - 29c GFS Sunday - 27c GFS Monday - 29c GEM Saturday - 29c GEM Sunday - 29c GEM Monday - 30c A very warm or even hot few days coming up....I haven't even included Friday here, which could reach 27-28c in places.

I agree - though when you look at the airmass, it’s tropical maritime, so not too surprising. When the heat arrives by the weekend it could feel quite sultry with warm nights and fairly humid days. Dew points on the GFS for example get up to 20c....with a 30c temp that gives 55% humidity, which won’t feel great.

AAM fell away in late April before climbing to positive around the middle of May. It’s not an instant response - the lag time varies and it took until the end of May for an improvement after a couple of cycles, of which the first didn’t quite manage. The April/May/June weather patterns in our neck of the woods have followed the changes in global momentum pretty well (ie dry settled April, unsettled and cool May before turning warmer and drier for June). AAM clearly isn’t a silver bullet otherwise forecasting would be a doddle. It can be a useful tool though, even with my quite limited understanding!

This looks promising into July. We can’t expect 12 weeks of settled weather, but if any unsettled interludes can be fairly brief, then July could hold some very fine weather. No La Niña to suppress things like last summer. I expect overall summer will be better than average - first 2 weeks of June have been great so it’s already miles head of last years debacle!

UKMO 144 looks good to finally rid the UK of the only day not to reach 30c in the summer on Sunday. 850s up to 13c should be sufficient to get the job done in the SE! GFS doesn’t quite get there at 28c predicted, but these are often undercooked anyway, and 30c could happen here:

ECM has 26c+ every day from Saturday onwards this run. Locations of warmest spots will very much depend on where the high ends up. Here's a look at Monday for example, which shows a very marked temperature contrast! Very cold in Scotland to hot in the SE:

I think there's a very reasonable chance we could see our first 30c+ of the year next Monday as that high moves east from Sunday into Monday: GEM has 31c at midday: GFS isn't quite as warm, but has 28c: UKMO 168 next Monday looks very warm to hot. No temps from model data, but looks like 30c plus to me: