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Looks better than a lot of the 00z output, but only because we get sandwiched between troughs either side:

Good summary of the state of play here from Matt. Everything has ground to a halt (MJO) - the Pacific is dead, convection is very active over Africa though (far left and far right of VP anom chart) so expect some big easterly waves and potential hurricane development (2 areas of interest currently) Until the MJO starts to move through July then we might not see too much settled weather in our neck of the woods. One to keep an eye on.

The mean isn't much better, so that bloody trough might be sticking around right through next week too and ruin things. Here's the mean chart for next Thursday, showing it influencing much of England and Wales. Northern Ireland and Scotland should be ok: It'll be such a shame when a few days ago we were seeing charts like this for mid next week. Instead of a strong high building over the top of the low (with the low staying across the channel) it looks like it'll probably end up with the low over some of the UK, and the high just effecting northern areas for a few days before it starts to dissipate:

Well....one of these is going to be very wrong!

ECM is even worse. Trough drifts back up over the UK through the week and just leaves heavy rain and showers all over the place. Settled spell? Don’t count on it….

Op Mean The mean trough position on the GFS ensemble for Tuesday AM is slightly further south into France, which would be better for the UK

GFS this morning is utter dross. Very wet through to the middle of next week too: GEM is pretty good eventually, not before it’s soaking wet though UKMO good for the northern half of the uk, south hold on to the trough and rain until the middle of the week again though. Could be a very wet few days about to hit….the strong high pressure signal after doesn’t look quite as dominant as it did a day or two ago either. Longer to build in and quicker to depart!

Second ECM run in a row that’s absolute garbage. Trough never leaves, and bu Friday it’s rain or showers all over the place. Hoping this is a stinking outlier compared with the others!

GFS looks very good indeed by Wednesday - if that trough stays where it is!

Ill take this I reckon. Keep that rank unsettled weather over the other side of the channel! A few showers in the south but no deluge.

You mean the ones that didn’t show any sort of troughing over the UK at all a couple of days ago? These are better than the bbc/meteogroup ones now for sure. Their extended forecast is a bit of a joke nowadays, they usually just show the ecm 00z op run and say this will happen, even if it’s an outlier or not with other output.

I mean the month down here hasn't been a disaster - the first half was very good indeed until the 16th. Warm and sunny. The period 17th-21st though was absolutely awful. No sun, cold and fairly wet. Yesterday was nice though, and today too while the north is a bit cloudier. Could be another period of north doing a lot better than south in the coming days though!

A rather warm looking ECM ensemble mean too:

Well ECM ends up slightly better in the shorter term, but worse in the 8-10 day period. Think I'd prefer any of the other model runs after day 7 than the ECM this morning. Swings and roundabouts, and more runs needed!

ECM much better on Sunday - the low is centred about 100 miles further SW than the GEM for example, and is less organised. As such, the heavy rain bands shown moving across the UK on the GEM (below) are instead just a few showers concentrated in the S/SW corner closest to the low:

Nice to see that yellow thing in the sky appearing again yesterday, and waking up to blue skies today! Will make the most before what looks like a disappointing few days coming up from Friday onewards!

GEM is a bit of a disaster over the next week in the central/southern half of the UK - 2 to 4 inches of rain quite widely: GFS not quite so apocalyptic, rain concentrated in the S/SW: UKMO looks wet until we see an improvement by the middle of next week: As @northwestsnow alludes to above, the potential is certainly now there after this pesky feature disappears for a fine spell of weather thereafter:

Yeah it wasn’t really fully supported, which is was I why surprised Marco tweeted saying that high pressure was going to win out a couple of days ago. It was always touch and go, and if anything like the ukmo or gem run verifies tonight, some southern areas will see 4 inches of rain in a few days, and flooding will be the talking point rather than summer heat!

That’s crazy! Their average July max is 29c though as it’s a continental climate, but to see 45c up there would be bonkers. Be amazed jt that’s the case…..but who knows. 850 temps are predicted to exceed 30c by then. Must be a first or a rarity to see 30c plus 850s that far north?!

Trouble is you'd look at that 6-10 day 500mb chart and expect a lot of decent weather....but in reality it could possibly be very wet over the next 6-10 days in a large number of locations:

00z GFS - fairly deep low over Iceland at day 10 06z GFS - High pressure over Iceland at day 10 Nice and consistent...d'oh!

Yeah - those are pure speculation at the moment. The run last night had the low more to the SW which imported warmer air. As long as we start seeing temps 20-23c rather than the 15c we've now had for a week here then I don't mind. It's like a bad joke that in a few locations the summer solstice was colder than the winter solstice!!

The regime forecast from the ECM was interesting yesterday: Blocked weather dominating all through July. 500mb update also shows +ve heights over the UK, and low polar and Greenland heights dominating the next fortnight....so unless troughs gets stuck like the end of this week, on the whole it shouldn't be too bad. I'm hopeful of a big improvement again as we head out of June and get into July.

ECM also joining the party in diminishing the dominating high pressure signal through the early to middle part of next week. It ends up much better in the north though, and eventually for all by day 10 (a longgggggggg way off as we all know). Friday could see showers across a large swathe of the UK: Saturday - dry in the north, heavy showers in the south: Sunday similar, main shower risk nudging a bit further south: More rain/showers in the south Monday to Wednesday: Net result: From an IMBY point of view, I hope this is wrong! That trough needs to bugger off, not hang around like a bad smell for nearly a week.

Models still a bit all over the place this morning, and the UKMO has pretty much dropped the uk anticyclone idea, with the trough now much closer by: GEM probably best, though it's all looking a bit wishy washy now, and the high pressure signal probably overplayed. See below tweet form Matt Hugo: