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UKMO looking thundery into Friday as another low moves up from France

Cloud deck has moved in here too, which has spoiled what was a lovely day until about an hour ago. Still 26c, but now more humid at 53%.

Is there ever any heat in County Down?

If you are sick to the back teeth of the recent heat, then relief to more pleasant temperatures is on the way: Not turning cold for most by any stretch, just something closer to the average for late June. High teens/low twenties instead of mid to high twenties.

The humidity mis-assumption thing gets me too. Quite often we get 30c+ heat here with low-ish humidity. For example the 38.7c heat in July 2019 came with humidity around 30%. Quite often it's in the 30-40% range during hot spells, which isn't high at all, but people just think it's humid because of the heat and get the two mixed up. You don't hear people saying how humid it is in the winter when it's cloudy and 90% humidity when it's 12c outside! Compare that to say New Orleans, which often has temps into the 30s with humidity above 50%. Or somewhere like Manila/Singapore in the Asian tropics where it's above 30c with humidity at 70% plus. Now that is brutal and uncomfortable humidity!

UKMO and ECM day 6/7 comparison. UKMO much keener to split a cut off low down over Iberia, which allows pressure to build over the top. ECM drops this straight through the UK and keeps it more unsettled.

Still no real low pressure intrusion by day 7 on UKMO this morning: Day 10 GFS - Still very warm across many areas: GEM day 10 - not as warm, but mainly settled: Before all of this though - things are going to go BANG. Thursday morning - Thundery trough moving up from France as well as a cold front moving in from the west. There is a Met Office storm warning out from 6pm Wednesday to 6am Friday:

Split flow causing problems as usual. UKMO looks really good at 144!

Day 10 this morning vs last night. Today’s is about as bad as you can get with a UK trough surrounded by high pressure, including our old friend Mr Greenland high. Outlier I reckon.

Definitely a bad bunch of 00z runs today. Pass the sick bucket please!

Remember this - we had 850s above 20c and the max for the day was about 28c in SW England due to a cold undercut from the east.

I would agree. I’ve been model watching since 2003, in the short to mid term this could be the craziest ensemble I’ve ever seen. 24c difference from top to bottom at day 9. Loads of hot ones, loads of cool ones. Simply crazy!!

Truly awful 6z run. Less said the better!

600dm ridge is setting up over the SW corner of the USA, which is going to produce some record breaking heat. Look at this forecast for Needles. Potentially the earliest 50c plus outside Death Valley for 103 years. Ridiculously hot.

Wednesday and Thursday look explosive on the ecm today. Heat and massive instability pushing up from the south. If storms are your scene then midweek could be epic:

That AAM forecast on victor gensinis website isn’t updating properly - the chart you’ve posted above is from 3rd June where it has got stuck. A smaller fall back to neutral/just below in around a week is forecast.

Nothing to do with that - the seas to our SW are above average: More to do with decaying fronts getting trapped (see below), as well as the air being tropical maritime. It just carries a lot more warmth and moisture by definition, which increases cloud and humidity - as well as giving the S/E the best of the conditions as the air dries out as it crosses the UK landmass.

ECM extended range clusters from day 10-15 don't look too disastrous this morning. Cooler with a W/NW flow, but no trough stuck over the UK. Could be worse.

Predicted maxes around 26-27c, so a couple of degrees down on GFS and GEM. As things are becoming more mobile by then, timings of how long the warmer air holds on will be key for how much warmth can build.

Well pointed out. Another hot day possible in many areas. UKMO 850s - hot in the SE: GEM temps for Wednesday: GFS temps for Wednesday: Colour schemes slightly different, but both showing 29c. GEM even has heat for Thursday in the SE corner:

.....and here it is again on the 00z: and also the GEM in a slightly different form:

This summer won’t be as bad as last year. I’m almost certain. Background signals are miles better. There’s no reason for a washout summer. Equally no signal for a heatwave summer. Something average IMO, with periods of both.

True - the problem with a lot of bad UK summers is that there is loads of high pressure around.....surrounding the UK while we get pinned under a trough. I’m hopeful the second half of June will just be 2-3 weeks of not so good weather before it improves again into July.

Beat me to it. GFS blows up a lot of northern blocking too. Long way back to anything warm and settled from a chart like that. See what ECM holds later.

Not sure I’d call a deep low pinned over the uk in mid June ‘nae bad’! It’s about as bad as it gets in mid summer. ECM 00z day 10 below is what you’d call not bad. Not high pressure, but a westerly flow and average. Low pressure stuck over the top of the uk in summer just leads to washouts. Like a fair few summer months 04-12 accomplished.