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mb018538

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Everything posted by mb018538

  1. It's quite common in maritime climates such as the UK, where the air is often not dry enough higher up in the atmosphere to prevent cloud development from solar heating, hence why the cloud bubbles up through the morning from a clear start. The joys of being surrounded by the ocean! The surface high pressure caps the clouds from becoming tall cumulonimbus clouds, so you tend to see the sky full of fluffy cumulus clouds that don't usually produce rain. Just annoying infill that can spoil a good day. A good dry continental feed in the summer can eliminate much of this though. We've also had a little bit of instability (vorticity) in the upper atmosphere in recent days, which has meant there has been enough energy and instability to develop some scattered showers - despite high pressure at the surface. Also there have been a few showers along the south coast where sea breezes have developed and been forced against the main northerly flow. Where these collide the air is forced to rise, which can produce showers. Mostly light or not reaching the ground as the air below the clouds is very dry and low humidity. Lots going on as usual! Hope this helps answer some of your questions.
  2. All we can safely say at the moment is that it looks like staying very dry for much of the rest of April. Doesn't appear that any heatwaves are likely with the high orientated in the wrong position, but just a slight change so we can cut off the cooler flow and see some mid to high teens days would be nice. I'm a bit sick of seeing 9-12c days now. Thankfully next week is looking a bit warmer!
  3. The desert like conditions showing no signs of abating for pretty much the whole country in the next 10 days as high pressure continues to dominate. We've had 1.9mm of rain here in April, and with the very dry and low humidity airmass dominating, the ground is rock hard and has quite wide cracks in places. The official weather station at Writtle (Essex) has recorded 0.2mm in April. Seems bonkers when a few weeks ago everywhere was sopping wet. Seems like April showers are a thing of the past these days, as it always seems to end up the driest month of the year!
  4. Terrible forecast here today too. Had persistent rain all day so far, which wasn’t forecast anywhere. Another drab and cold April day to add to the collection.
  5. I’d take this over what we had Thursday to Saturday here for sure. Western areas obviously did well, but we got stuck under North Sea clag for 3 days and it was vile. I’d much rather have 4c and sunshine than 8c and leaden grey skies!
  6. Hah Didn’t you know it’s absolutely wonderful cleaning the car in a gale force northerly wind with a zero windchill? I’ve seen loads of people out doing it!
  7. It’s not normal though, is it. Temperatures should be up around 13/14c at this time of the year, not the 6-10c we’re getting this week. It’s 4-8c below normal. Not decent temperatures at all. Decent for the middle of January maybe....
  8. Completely pointless nothing weather for the first half of April it would seem. Stuck with winds from the north and suppressed temperatures. If only we had 6 other months in the year that we could get such wonderful weather....
  9. From a strong vortex.....to an obliterated vortex. Cold weather could hang around for a while in this kind of set up. Could be looking at a solid week of very cold April weather here.
  10. Check the BBC and MetO screen grabs from forecasts this morning earlier in the thread. Both more or less show unbroken sunshine today. In reality a large portion of the S/SE has been under a blanket of cloud all day.
  11. Think today is going to go down as one of the worst forecasts I’ve ever had here. To get it so badly wrong even on the morning of the forecast is pretty bad for professional organisations like the BBC/MetO.
  12. Very disappointing. Forecasts were all falling for mainly sunny skies with some patchy cloud floating around. Instead there’s a large thick blanket of muck over much of the south which will keep temps suppressed. It’s 20c here but very hazy already. Be surprised if we get 23/24c here today at least.
  13. I wouldn't write the whole month off mate. Sure - from Easter Monday onwards it doesn't look great for the next week... But the ECM weeklies have that trough lifting out by mid-month, so hopefully an improvement there. A Euro high in that set up could be pleasant:
  14. Nah. I'm all for this in December or January. But early April? Come on....how anyone can prefer that to what we had yesterday and the next 2 days at this time of year is beyond me. I get why people can dislike summer heat into the 30s C as it can feel sticky and oppressive, but temperatures around the low 20s C with sunshine is almost perfect.
  15. As stated - the very cold air looks like being much like a Southern Rail train - delayed. Was looking a few days ago that it would arrive by Thursday/Friday...now looking like late Sunday/Monday, and question marks as to how much cold actually makes it, and for how long. Keep those eyes on the forecast. For the next three days though - most of us can enjoy some spring warmth that will feel more like summer. A taste of what's to come I hope.
  16. GFS day 4/5 UKMO day 4/5 Looks like we’ve got issues here. Very different day 5 charts!
  17. As stated by others this morning - ECM shows a blast of very warm weather for the first 3 days of next week. Maybe 18c Monday, 20-21c Tuesday, and 22/23c possible Wednesday. ARPEGE only out as far as Monday, but shows 18c and clear skies: Enjoy the warm weather while it lasts, as we will be digging out the thermals by the end of the week!
  18. There’s a real risk Tuesday may not even be that good now....GFS has a frontal system diving south through the day. Depending on timing it could ruin things. Should be noted that the GEM doesn’t really show the same. One to watch anyway.
  19. I’ll take a summer 1975 if that’s on offer @mushymanrob! The famous early June snow was replaced by some warmth, a warm July and a hot august. That’s one thing I’d like to see in a summer.....a good august has been lacking in most summers since the turn of the century. Some absolute stinkers in there too (2004 Boscastle springs to mind). Last year was very odd with the unsettled start and that run of very hot days....before back to unsettled.
  20. Even the ECM clusters at day 5-7 are split 18/11/11/11, which indicates high uncertainty at a relatively short timeframe. Going to have to wait a few more days before we can be sure exactly what we're going to get.
  21. The very potentially cold Easter gathering more momentum by the day: GEM in particular is very cold this morning with a straight Arctic flow. GFS and ECM are a bit more modified, but still cold. The weather is amazing sometimes. From early spring warmth to a wintry Arctic blast within 3/4 days!
  22. As a few others have stated, we are starting to see some guidance and patterns emerging for next week. Looks like being very mild to start the week, perhaps up to Wednesday in places. By Saturday though... Big -NAO pattern setting up, with mid Atlantic/Greenland blocking very possible....and a bitter Arctic northerly potentially setting in. The old adage about it being more likely to snow at Easter than at Xmas may be coming true again soon. Very cold maxima in low single figures, with high snow potential.
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