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Paul Sherman

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Posts posted by Paul Sherman

    Storms and Convective discussion - 1st June 2020onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, Frosty hollows said:

    Think you mean the M40, unfortunately.  I'm north of the M4 and it's all going to my north, as usual.  Bloody Chilterns

    This is dead storm alley

    Nope defo north of the M4 - Storms are firing further SW from the London ones which will track North West North of the M4 Later - Well thats what the models show so good luck to break the dead storm alley

    • Like 1

    Storms and Convective discussion - 1st June 2020onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Chris.R said:

    A storm  not far away from me. Still don’t think it will reach here because  of the sea-breeze although it doesn’t seem to be having much affect on the temps 21.0°C.

    Well played Sir

    Just goes to show when you live in those areas you know your local conditions and what is good for storm chances. Something the models do not seem to factor in (ref local effects from Sea Breeze Convergence) much the same as Upslope Flow in the USA with the models always 3-4 hours ahead with precip not allowing for them not moving into better moisture on the Plains and milling about in the Mountains

    • Like 2

    Storms and Convective discussion - 1st June 2020onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Justin1705 said:

    Yeah bro. Because when the storms are elevated it’s harder to get a high res image as radar returns aren’t very good. But when surface based it’s high res and can be seen much easier. 
     

    I only learnt it recently ! 

    Yh righto have been doing this for a long time and my sarcasm obviously never shone through in my post. I think you might have learnt it from a dodgy source

    • Like 3

    Storms and Convective discussion - 1st June 2020onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

    I don’t think anything will happen today here, I’m in the sea-breeze zone. WRF is not interested in anything either. Also generally you can pretty much say that when a Met warning is in place nothing will happen,as demonstrated on Saturday when all hell broke loose just after the warning expired.

    oh well, got tomorrow and Wednesday.

     Please tell me your kidding right ?? The Met Office although not my number 1 fan did put the warning in the correct place just their timing were out due to the Cap holding longer than planned. You are in the perfect position for today and your dewpoints promote thunderstorms, and tomorrow and wednesday as well.

    Update on the MCS for the SE which maybe would have been our saviour is rapidly going downhill with it staying the other side of the channel and hardly any models going for this now.

    • Like 1

    Storms and Convective discussion - 1st June 2020onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    Some nice TCU and clouds at least focused on the North Downs across the Estuary which may spark a small shower early this afternoon which might drift towards the London area other than that its clear blue skies and low humidity does not feel thundery at all - Hoping we can get some Humidity as we roll into July and August and get those High 20's days and Low 30's as thats what we need down here.

    NW England and Wales look primed again

    • Like 1

    Storms and Convective discussion - 1st June 2020onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    Once again XC weather is the giveaway for storm chances today with dewpoints between 14-16c already noted in the far North West and a lot of Mid Wales northward. Values to the SE only around 10-11c so Orographic forcing really for these areas with lack of any lifting mechanisms. There does look to be converging winds that should set up later for areas of the East Midlands northwards for your shower risk due to Convergence zones and not heavily reliant on Orographic lift there.

    More of the same for the SE dry and sunny maybe an odd light shower, jury is still out on wether a filament of PVA can set something off this evening west of London along the M4 Corridoor.

    A decent bet for overnight lightning still looks to be Mid to West Wales where showers could continue until the early hours but unless your welsh you probably cant get in to view them # 2020

    • Like 4

    Storms and Convective discussion - 1st June 2020onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Josh Rubio said:

    What and where is the eastern extent of this looking like, may I ask? 

    Yesterday everything bypassed us to the west, giving the West Mids all the fun. 

    So the Cotswolds and Chilterns should fire some storms these moving NW So eastern extent would be probably parts of Bucks around to the NW of London, draw a line anywhere North and West of there really

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