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Paul Sherman

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Posts posted by Paul Sherman

    Storms and Convective discussion - 1st June 2020onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    7 minutes ago, StormLoser said:

    I often grumble about the "Thames Estuary High" but it's something I've noticed for years now. The city and the estuary seem to generate their own dry zone like a semi-permanent wedge of high pressure cap over the area. I suspect it is the arc of low hills surrounding the capital north, west and south.

     

    Nailed it - Otherwise known as the Cone of Silence - First cumulus went up here and battered straight back down lol

    • Like 3

    Storms and Convective discussion - 1st June 2020onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

    But Paul, you’re used to Texas and Oklahoma juice! That’s enough to make anywhere feel mediocre in comparison I bet! 

    Lol yh

    Its certainly been an eye opener this year - Am used to 84/75 for most of May and June so guess I am out of practise lol

    You tempted to scoot across to the West Midlands today ? Am pretty certain Supacell will be out chasing today

    • Like 2

    Storms and Convective discussion - 1st June 2020onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    11 minutes ago, Lance M said:

    The skies aren't particularly encouraging either, all I'm seeing so far today is low, messy, fast-moving cumulus and some cirrus above it. 

    If humidity increases and some more unstable skies move in, things might look and feel a little more promising.

    Agree Lance

    Lots of time left yet though for the atmosphere to destabilise but I think Southerlies further West over London coming up against Easterlies down the Thames Estuary will be the Initiation Zone if any CZ can form

    • Like 2

    Storms and Convective discussion - 1st June 2020onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    Thing is Harry you just know when its a decent feel for storms and I have not felt that once yet this Spring early Summer APR/MAY/JUNE - The air feels like Mid April. I dont doubt it will heat up but no mugginess really worries me although it sounds like if you have not got this cool breeze from the SE and further Inland some posters have said it feels humid. East Midlands has a 60f dewpoint where Manston is only at 50f and thats all you need to know really. I think Arome is out of line with most other models and will reign it in on the 06z and 12z runs more in line with others. UKV not really interested in anything apart from West of London up through Oxfordshire now so would expect the zone of Initiation over London and Surrey and anywhere North and West from there could catch an evening Thunderstorm today.

    Best of Luck to everyone and somebody will luck out

    • Like 6

    Storms and Convective discussion - 1st June 2020onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    Yh North Norfolk (Barely) and NE Coast by the looks of this unless it can change to more WNW

    image?type=visual&region=nl

    6554b6be8c0d829a8bf63ae0c82cf121_link.pn Weather Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg, Satellite Weather Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg, Weather Forecast, Rainfall, Clouds, Sun in Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg - SAT24.com

    EN.SAT24.COM
    Weather Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg, Satellite Weather Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg, Weather Forecast, Rainfall, Clouds, Sun in Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg -...

     

    • Like 1

    Storms and Convective discussion - 1st June 2020onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted · Edited by Paul Sherman

    7 minutes ago, Thunder and Lightning said:

    Lol you might want to have a look at 30 April 2010, where the risk was slight for almost the whole day, and only upgraded to High in the last (01z) update! The torndo risk was slight for the whole day until the last 2 updates. Not related but thought that might have been a better example 

    Slight to Moderate then High  ? I chased it lol and saw a Tor in Arkansas

    • Like 1

    Storms and Convective discussion - 1st June 2020onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    Put it this way the SPC (USA Equivalent) although not reporting to the General Public per se update 5 times per day and the general weather agencies over there eg Weathernation / TWC (The Weather Channel) glean all the neccesary details from this outlet. And change their forecasts accordingly. Would we get that with the BBC of course not, because its easier to just record something put it on the Tv or the Web or Twitter etc and leave it there.

    Point in Case May 3rd 1999 EF5 in Oklahoma. Morning of there was a Slight Risk of storms and low tornado risk at 07z. This was raised to Moderate by 13z and upgraded to High Risk by 20z when skies that were supposed to be cloudy were clear and the synoptics allowed for Strong Long tracked Tornadoes. I am pretty certain our cloudy with a chance of storms some severe would not have changed had our agencies had their hands on it.

    Like I said they really cannot be bothered and just broad brush things for an easy life.

    • Like 7

    Storms and Convective discussion - 1st June 2020onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    Just now, The PIT said:

    Does make you wonder why Beeb forecast keeps banging on about the storms today when the radar shows just heavy rain. They must have the information that it's a bust or perhaps the forecasts are just recording of earlier forecasts as they are overnight.

    In all honesty they are lazy and s hite tbh and really cant be ar sed with the General Situation. The level of forecasting since the Mid 80's has gone downhill rapidly

    • Like 6
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